Theresa May is, I suggest, setting out to fail. She made that clear yesterday.
She made her shadow cabinet arrive at 'her' manifesto launch in a bus that talked about her and not their party.
She's chosen to ignore their collective opinion on immigration, which most think a key issue, when for once pragmatic opinion is on their side.
She's clearly chosen hard Brexit: I predict a breakdown in all talks within nine months. Failure is written on all the cards.
Despite which she's chosen to alienate business, which when she's already disappointing them on Brexit is a strange strategy.
She's alienating many in her party by hinting at tax rises, which will happen.
She's also alienating all those who think free movement has merit.
She's destabilising all those organisations, from farms to universities via the NHS and the building industry and banking that have relied on it.
She's told half her MPs that their core philosophy is wrong. She may be right about right wing libertarianism, but she's forgetting that those who believe in it have turned holding a grudge into an art form.
She's alienated the old on pensions and social care.
The inheriting class are up in arms.
Those who appreciated a free school lunch and think breakfast is no substitute aren't happy, although I accept that in educational terms the policy has merit.
And she's given remarkably little to anyone, whether it be the NHS, education, investment, workers on rights, or anything else. Indeed, much of what she has said is just aspirational waffle. The discussion of R&D is an example.
And nor are there numbers: May does not want to hang herself.
She need not worry about that. She's already made enough enemies in a day to ensure three things.
The first is that others will end her political career for her. They'll be much faux acquiescence but the Daily Mail won't buy this agenda for long.
Second, with a large majority she will discover 'the bastards' will rise again, and with a vengeance. She's guaranteed her fiercest opponents will be on the Tory back benchers.
Third, there will be no lasting legacy of Mayism. The manifesto is a bid for long term control of the party and country. I suspect she'll be lucky to make the 2022 election as leader. Not only is there no Mayism, there is no chance of success for this weird and unworkable mix of ideas that ultimately represent little more than a pragmatic attempt to appeal.
I stress, appeal is the goal. As much as Blair needed affection, so it seems does May. One wonders if there was enough love in her childhood vicarage because there is in this manifesto an attempt to appeal to all, being more left on economics than expected, and more right on social policy but without any of the Blair / Mandelson ability to spin that to win grudging loyalty.
In fact there's only one real basis for her campaign when all is said and done, and that's her appeal to be the favourite offspring to whom the best chance must be given whatever the cost in terms of alienation for all the rest, who will bide their time and get their retribution in due course.
What a sorry state of affairs.
And it's a recipe for failure.
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After the election was set, I seemed to see a shift to hostility in parts of the media I did not expect it. The BBC was late to that party but elsewhere Ms May was not getting much help.
Since I was already rather puzzled by the direction of travel on brexit and the muted response to that from much of the corporate class, I began to believe that the vote to leave had surprised them so much that they needed to regroup and develop a strategy they had not anticipated they would need. And this was it. They seemed to me to be working to ensure a tory victory: but much less than a landslide. Indeed the prediction of a landslide was itself unhelpful. As were the unflattering pictures and the coverage of her various closed visits and meetings. She was also largely alone. The narrative in the media was 1. It is all about Ms May 2. She is hopeless. 3. She is not as hopeless as Mr Corbyn.
I considered this strategy was aiming to reduce her success in the election with a view to deposing her quite quickly and replacing her with someone who could secure a soft brexit which would suit the business and financial interest better: for Ms May is deeply opposed to immigration and therefore will deliver the hardest of brexits
The launch of the manifesto has reinforced this view for it seems directly intended to alienate big sections of the core support, and can only reflect the aim of powerful parts of the tory party itself, since it is hardly an accident. We used to talk about men in grey suits as the real power in the party. They haven’t gone away, IMO.
Of course such an account depends on thinking that Ms May is profoundly stupid in political terms and in terms of understanding her own interest. But I don’t have much problem believing that.
I agree: she will not last as leader.
Interesting analysis Fiona but a couple of points. One, May was in charge of Visas and Immigration and did nothing to stem the flow of non EU applicants after the ‘promise’ of 10s of thousands. Just loom at the stats for origin and you will see a lot of these visas are granted to IT people from the sub-continent, they are required by the banks mainly who somehow connot find people with the skills either locally, in the UK nor in Europe, apparently. There is a whole discourse I could elaborate on how the visa rules are circumvented to the advantage of business which have been raised in the past by affected groups to no avail.
The other point is the BBC: that organisation is very biased against Corbin in particular and Labour in general, soft questioning of Torys but aggressive questioning of labour people. There are examples of tweets:
I agree also that business must be frightened of a hard Brexit but I am surprised they have not done more to undermine May’s direction of travle.
She doesn’t need to be stupid for your analysis to make sense. Just outside the golden circle.
Removing a chunk of voters might help in 2022. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-manifesto-general-election-2017-voter-id-laws-racist-voters-poll-latest-a7742666.html
Now a blog
Thanks
“…turned holding a grudge into an art form..”
Well, it was an old keyboard, and I drink far too much coffee. Thank you.
I hope you’re right about May. She does seem to have trampled on her supporters’ hopes and dreams with extraordinary glee.
Indeed. Labour for once has had a good week. If you don’t mind I will shameless plug our Progressive Pulse Article this morning http://www.progressivepulse.org/society/the-state-of-the-nation-and-the-labour-manifesto/
The sad thing is that it is still very likely that May will win. It will all end in tears. May is not Thatcher. I thought Thatcher was certifiably insane but in boxing terms she could “dance like a butterfly and sting like a bee” at PMQ especially. May is distinctly flat footed despite the kitten heels.
Tweet coming up….
“others will end her political career for her” – given her track record as home secretary on a core plank of the election (immigration) I’d say she has done a very fine DiY job all on her own:
https://brexit853.wordpress.com/2016/09/26/freedom-of-movement-isnt-the-problem-it-is-the-way-the-uk-fails-to-control-it/
incompetence – thy name is Theresa May – the odd thing being – why Camoron never sacked her given a 100% failure on immigration. If she get’s elected she will be so back she will……..make Camoron look good.
Hi Mike
Indeed – many of us have been aware of this for years; I suspect Cameron and Osborne largely ignored her and put the economy first knowing full well that doing this overtly would be unpopular with their base
Having immigrants to blame suited them very well.
I have to say that as I watched the launch there was something surreal about it that I could not put my finger on at all. I still can’t. It felt like a suicide note to me – a cry for help even.
I’m sure that the Crosby machine is in full swing and her pollsters are fully up to date with voter attitudes. Has May departed from the script?
If May has set out to fail then given the Tory lust for power what is the game plan here? If she does fail and is replaced I expect George Osbourne to be the next Tory PM – a frightening prospect.
Has May given up at last and realised that the problems created by the posh boys are just too difficult to sort out? Does she want Labour to win the next election because the economy is going to tank? Does she see her party as now ungovernable? Does she see her party roaring back to power in 2022 after a torrid time for the country whilst Labour are in?
Maybe – just maybe – the Tories have been deceiving themselves for too long and the country is turning away from them because the facts have caught with them?
The worst case scenario is that she is feeding on latent resentment towards the elderly who have not suffered as much as those of working age since 2010.
Maybe she is so stubborn that she has dug a deeper hole for herself? Or is it arrogance because the Tory polling is so strong and they are taking that for granted?
I am completely mystified. But I still feel that there is self serving method in all of this. She is after all a dyed in the wool Conservative.
Maybe she believes that all the 65+ have already posted their votes!
I’m convinced she doesn’t want to win. Brexit is going to be a nightmare to sort with or without a wobbly economy. If Labour get in the Tories can blame the resulting disaster on them, if Tories win they have no one to blame but themselves. Whoever wins this election, I can’t see lasting post Brexit.
“I have to say that as I watched the launch there was something surreal about it that I could not put my finger on at all. I still can’t. It felt like a suicide note to me — a cry for help even.”
I must say that what stuck me was the lack of visible support from her front bench in the audience. They looked anything but animated. If anything more zombified. Certainly I wouldn’t have described them as being unified behind her even in a state of mild enthusiasm when the cameras were on them. I would describe them as resigned, waiting, disengaged.
I agree
Apologies for the slight off topic (or if you’ve covered this elsewhere), but do you or any of your readers have any info on what the IFS make of these almost completely uncosted policies? The IFS (or at least their head) were happy enough to go on the BBC to discuss the leaked Labour draft, but they seem to have gone a bit quiet today.
I’ve drawn my own conclusions, but I’d be interested in yours.
I hear there’s a £40 billion hole
I have not heard Paul Johnson saying so
While there appears to be some logic to your analysis I disagree with the conclusion. Even though we know it’s a mug’s game making these kinds of predictions, it’s fun in its own way. I mean who knows what goes on within the secretive corridors of Tory power, other than those actually there? It has always seemed to me there’s a Tudor-esque nature to the way the Tories handle their internal power-plays.
Be that as it may, or may not, I’m more inclined to agree with Ali Goldsworthy and Rob Blackie – http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/general-election-right-wing-left-progressive-alliance-tories-corbyn-why-how-we-can-turn-it-around-a7738171.html. It’s not even about the ‘economy, stupid’.
Time will tell, but I don’t think the Tory Grandees will be ditching her any time soon. She may be intuitively smarter than we want to think. However, I’m usually wrong when it comes to predictions, so let’s hope you’re theory prevails.
Let me be clear: I’m not saying I’m right
I am speculating on what I can see
Even the Daily Mail has given Corbyn a positive headline and the below the line comments of the Daily ‘Heil’ readers were turning negative towards the Tories, even some admitting that Corbyn was beginning to look better. Some commented on how Hammond was atrociously bad in a recent interview (despite the fact that Abbot seems to come up as the ‘motheer of all blunders’).
Something is happening but I’m not sure, of course, how this may develop. There is something awry in the Tory camp as they exhausted the ‘Strong Stable’ nonsense in about two weeks and haven’t found another workable meme.
The vacuity of May seems to be showing through if so, it is proof that the populace might not be as zombified by power dressing and cleverly placed digital subliminal flashes.
I suspect that the glimmer of hope in Tory implosion will not be fulfilled, after all the vacuity of Cameron/Osborne, two of the most inept and trashy goons every to rise through political ranks did not destroy the Tories.
Let’s hope the youth vote and the work of the Grime artists helps http://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/watch-jme-and-jeremy-corbyn-talk-about-the-future-of-britain
Don’t get your hopes up comrades. While it’s not over ’til the fat lady sings …. unless TM is found to have siphoned off a million quid to a Cayman Islands account or is having an affair with an EU immigrant – there isn’t enough time for the LP to win. While out and about earlier I saw the front page of the DM print edition which was something along the lines of “At last a Prime Minister who is telling you the truth” (not verbatim). That’s what people liike to hear and want to believe. Don’t confuse them with the facts.
There’s no way the manifesto was published without the requisite approvals – whoever or whatever they may be. It’s probably true, though, that she’s listening to Nick Timothy and has incorporated his proposed ‘Erdington Manifesto’ strategy _ http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/05/may-pursues-tynemouth-man-and-woman.html. From the Tory perspectiove, it make sense. Labour’s counter-offensive is sadly too little much too late.
John D – the guardian article about Erdington was particularly depressing especially when people involved in local church campaigns against poverty are considering voting Tory because they fell for the ‘strong…stable..national interest’ meme.
it is more evidence of media capture and the propagation of political and economic illiteracy that our culture seems to ‘celibrate.’
These people were doing useful and good things locally yet had no sense of the roots of the issues causing the impoverishment of their communities.
Much as I devoutly wish the lacklustre Tory performance would result in electoral failure, I can only reflect that the voices from the Tory retirement land of Christchurch (yesterday Radio 4) showed no sign of abandoning their leader.
One backed rail renationalisation, but will still vote Tory. Another decried the “dementia tax”, but will still vote Tory. Another claimed she would never, ever, vote Labour. Why not? That Jeremy Corbyn – he can’t even wear a tie, and his shirt was a mess (or words to that effect).
It almost seems that the Tories have a rock solid constituency out there who are strangers to cognitive dissonance, and will vote Tory no matter what.
I come across exactly the same thing
I am the Christchurch Labour Party secretary. Your last sentence is spot on. As the only other candidate in the recent CC elections, I polled one sixth of the Tory vote.
This is known as the ‘exhumed corpse with a blue rosette’ syndrome; the sense of generational loyalty and identification as a Tory is so powerful that even if it were scientifically demonstrated in layman’s terms that their policies were gutting the economy, environment and human well-being in general they would still vote the same way.
There is a school of thought that whoever wins this general election will lose the next one, because the economy is not doing well and Brexit will make it worse.
So they have send in a woman to take the fall, and the grey men can sweep in later to fix everything.
I’m sure she will try to stay. Will it be enough to blame the EU for the failure of the Brexit talks, while doubling down on the 1950s nostalgia of grammar schools and low immigration? No doubt even stronger anti-terrorism laws, and perhaps mandatory identity cards next, to increase security and address voter fraud, alongside pervasive internet surveillance.
Osborne will struggle to become PM if he is not even an MP, but no doubt a safe seat could be found for him. Boris will still be there, though, and Michael Gove, and Liam Fox. Or even Chris Grayling, god help us.
After the Brexit tsunami, who would follow as party leader?
B Johnson – no. the party would not want a buffoon as leader.
Osborne? – not an MP
Hammond? – not a chance
Leadsom? – no brains, no charm
Rudd? possible
Fatty Fox? – oh surely not. They couldn’t do that.
Gove? – brainy but untrustworthy and totally dislikeable, no charm, no integrity
IDS – Hahahahaha
Soubry, Clark, or Morgan, hopefully, but highly unlikely. Clarke would be too old.
Which leaves David Davis, who has brains and even integrity, though he would be tainted by the failure of Brexit.
My betting is on Davis or Rudd. But the next Chancellor after the coming election, and before the tsunami, may well be Fatty Fox.
What a prospect
The one ray of sunshine in this dismal – but credible – analysis is the nature of May’s victory in becoming party leader.
She sat down, sat still, and shut up; and she let her repellent and inept competitors discredit each other and themselves so thoroughly that May’s success became inevitable.
I have read in more than one place that David Cameron did not want to win in 2015.
I find that to be quite believable personally.
Putting a conspiracy hat on was the new Tory social care policy an attempt to deter their core vote? Makes you think that Cameron and May see Credit as a near certain disaster and would like no part of it.
I guess you mean Brexit not Credit?
We all do it…
Auto correct and typing on the go, yes, leaving the EU.
Apart from guaranteeing all over 65’s a free slap in the face I am trying to think what would put off the Conservative core vote (mind you, I’m sur Paul Dacre would say a free slap was great from the Tories)
What is concerning me at the moment is the standard of education in this country, are the majority of the electorate really going to let the media dictate to them? Don’t get me started on non-existent financial education.
Like the NHS, education is a political football, and all the worse for it.
I very much doubt I am going to see a new approach to education in this country in my lifetime.
They want us to be thick enough to vote without questioning the system.
She’s managed to do what not even Iain Dreadful Smith and Michael Horrible Howard could do: she’s turned me (an ageing lifelong Tory supporter) into an Anti-Tory. As I live in a solid Labour constituency, that won’t have much electoral effect, unfortunately.
A group of us actually had a discussion about this the other day at work.
One of the group was a dyed in the wool Labour supporter who kept alluding to the Tory record on the public sector (because that is where we work).
One of the others was a voter and he basically was voting for May – even though his long term employment is badly at risk as a result and his pay has been lowered since 2010.
I found this chap fascinating and although my Labour colleague was obviously frustrated by the May supporter (even resorting to trying to make out that the May voter was stupid) I took the time to tease out more by just being ‘Atticus Finch’ and putting myself in his shoes.
Basically, his attitude was about how the parties came across. He felt that the Tories were together and organised.
I said to him ” So, imagine that you were marooned on a desert island and down to your last half of coconut and two ships turned up one day and you saw a chance to escape”.
“One ship was a Tug (Labour) – it was bit leaky, bashed about, mutinous but despite this had a course set to a much better destination “.
“The other vessel – the Tory ship – is a sleek handsome cruiser with a well dressed captain and well drilled crew who did as they were told but was heading full speed for an iceberg field (BREXIT)”.
“And you would choose the cruiser” I said.
“Spot on” said the May voter enthusiastically.
Further discussion revealed that the May voter liked Corbyn and the current policies but had seen members of Corbyn’s party basically disobey him and criticise him behind his back. Therefore how could Corbyn lead and deliver on his promises?
So one of the causes of the poor public perception of Corbyn in this case at least is the reaction of his own party to their leader which determines their feelings in the public sphere about a political leader.
The view was also expressed that Labour was no longer the party of the working man – it came across as too much like the Tories but also now a party of the affluent middle class. The gentrification of Labour perhaps is one of the problems?
In a society where the well off/middle class is now declining – we could expect Labour to keep losing. They have been well and truly out flanked by the Tories and UKIP.
Further, one of the complaints of the modern working class (aired by others in this discussion) is immigration which is conflated with low wages. Labour has not responded to this well (from Blair’s time even); the Tories (and of course UKIP) did and still do – they will capitalise on it.
Although academics on this blog and at Progressive Pulse will say (quite rightly) that my ‘findings’ in this discussion are too small to be of any significance on the theories behind voter behaviour, I still am wont to charge the Labour party as a whole with behaving in the most stupid manner since Corbyn has been elected. They almost deserve to fail to be honest which is very hard thing to say given that they seem to be walking away from neo-liberalism at long last.
Oh well…………
Thanks for that
I an sure it us commonplace
Pilgrim – a small sample perhaps, but it rings true. If you’ve not seen them, John Harris’s excellent series of interviews around the country for the Guardian, Anywhere But Westminster suggest a not dissimilar conclusion.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/series/anywhere-but-westminster
He’s been to many of the areas that have voted strongly for Brexit and potentially for the Tories, apparently against their better interests, listening to and trying to understand their perspectives.
That frustration with voters is a recurring theme here and on Progressive Pulse – the great Brechtian quote about dissolving the electorate and appointing a new one springs to mind! No doubt Corbyn’s credibility is part of the problem together with the associated and rather public divisions in the Labour Party.
However, I’d argue that the way which the right has framed and delivered its messages, consistently and persistently over many years, both here and in the US, is a much deeper rooted factor and one which the centre and left have totally failed to recognise. Brief conversations with both John Harris and Owen Jones suggested they both clearly understand this.
Ive been wrestling with writing a longer piece on this, but recently stumbled on some excellent work being done by NEON (New Economy Organisers Network), who are a ‘spin-off’ from NEF. whom I guess many of you will know of. Can I strongly recommend this paper written by Dan Volkins, now leading NEON. It goes a long way towards explaining why so many people accept the narrative of austerity, apparently against their best interests, and what might be done about it
http://neweconomics.org/2013/09/framing-the-economy/
The encouraging news, is that NEON are setting out to the tackle the problem
I think the paper is good
I have real problems with NEON
I know I am accused of being selective in my comments policy
You have to be very pure to be on Neon, and that is a problem for it when it aims to be a broad body of opinion
You’re welcome.
Just to add that a number of people in the conversation voter for Blair only because the Tory government at the time (under Major) was so bad apparently but soon got back to voting Tory only when Cameron came on the scene.
Just to say Robin that what I am getting at is the Labour party itself has effectively undermined the credibility of Corbyn in the public’s consciousness.
The party itself is culpable in my view. Its a troubling lack of discipline at a time when the Tories themselves are weak but also when this current mode of capitalism is effectively over and in crisis.
The Labour position in my view is a total abrogation of its duty to British society (especially those whose lives are worse) and a wanton abandonment of its history.