The leaked reports of the discussions between Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May last week are of course one sided. And they were, very obviously, leaked for a reason. But they're still profoundly worrying. Those more expert than I am on EU negotiations suggest three things.
The first is that May was poorly briefed.
The second is that her instincts are based on negotiations she had as Home Secretary that do not provide a reliable precedent for what is happening now.
And the third is that her willingness to compromise is limited.
All three are worrying. All three characteristics are present in the general election campaign, meaning that the reports from Juncker are readily believable.
May is making claims on the stump about the time it will take to reach deals that no one with expertise thinks credible.
And her ministerial approach, honed at the Home Office that is so unlike other ministerial office that few successfully survive it (she being the exception that proves the rule), is far from prime ministerial in approach, and narrow in its perception and skill set.
Whilst it is all too obvious that may's primary characteristic is disdain for those who oppose her. I strongly suspect many from the EU will think they are being treated with contempt before any Brexit negotiation comes to a conclusion. It's the worst basis for reaching any deal in any walk of life.
May will, of course, try to play this to advantage. This is what 'strong and stable' government looks like, she will say. It is about 'backs against the wall' and 'fighting on the beaches' with a 'plucky Dunkirk spirit', forgetting all the time that Dunkirk only happened because of a mess of our own making. And through it all a contempt that will poison negotiations, UK political and social life and the fabric of our country will be apparent.
And what will we get from it? Inevitably a deal that is worse than what we had before. But more importantly, we'll have massively soured relationships. And these will not just be with other nation states. They will also be between people. Because the people really in the firing line here are those from the UK who live and work in the EU and vice versa. Whatever the deal on rights to stay the real issue will become the desire to stay. And what May has revealed is contempt. That's not just for facts, but also for the people involved. And that will be the most dangerous spillover of all.
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Do you think this could be universal, that she has contempt for everyone different to her, or who hold different opinions ? I suspect it doesn’t matter where you come from,
I suspect she may be a fundamentalist in that sense
One wonders if she leaned over the table and pointed her finger:
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/my_brawl_over_brexit_with_prime_minister_theresa_may_1_4807899
On a trade note (Uk doing business with the world – one of May’s memes)some data:
2011 (UN statistics)
UK merchandise exports $511 billion,
Belgium mechandise exports $472 billion.
So from a global persepctive i.e. countries looking at the UK as an exporter – they see… Belgium. Great country Belgium – odd that in terms of manufacturerd goods the Uk exports almost the same $ value. One wonders how it came to this pass and how leaving the EU is going to make it better.
Very good article
And worrying
Absolutely terrifying but given her performance to date quite believable.
I bought some vinyl flooring for my kitchen a few months ago.
The suppliers told me it was made in Belgium, as it would appear most vinyl flooring is nowadays. I mused out loud that it was a pity that we in the UK can’t make our own.
The supplier laughed – our factories are hopelessly out of date, and require ridiculous things like workers, heating, lighting, and safety features like emergency exits, and so on.
The Belgian vinyl flooring factory he visited, had absolutely no-one on the factory floor, was freezing cold, and pitch dark, because literally *everything* is done by machine; massive rolls of vinyl were unloaded from automated mills and carted around by robots to be stored and despatched, with not a human being in sight.
If this is the kind of investment that Belgian manufacturers are prepared to make, it’s not at all surprising that they export manufactured merchandise at a higher and more productive rate than does the UK.
But, on the other hand, we do have a capital brimming with expensive luxury housing – and just as empty of humanity as any Belgian vinyl factory!
Adding to this: the world leader in “building” events (i.e. getting stages together for monster concerts etc) is called Stageco Belgium NV – I know because on a recent flight I sat next to a chap that works for them. They are global. So not just manufactured goods but services as well.
If you haven’t read Brexit by Timetable PT 1-3 by David Allen Green in the FT I would highly recommend them, but they are very uncomfortable reading from the UK perspective.
I’m sure the leak is highly credible and a fair representation of the meeting. The EU approach is pretty much exactly as I and others here predicted last June with the exception that the Irish border is even more prominent than anticipated. It shows what clever diplomacy can do: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/how-ireland-achieved-a-crucial-brexit-coup-1.3066703 in stark contrast to May’s belligerent style.
Prof Michael Dougan’s new video is also worth a watch https://www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/videos/1619485934745471/
As usual Dr Mike Galsworthy is also very good with a discussion of the divorce bill
https://www.facebook.com/scientistsforeu/videos/1039752359460106/
Excellent video
Dougan’s video was interesting – 7 mins in – “one party state”
I can recommend “A State of Denmark” (it is a novel about the Uk) – it makes Orwell’s 1984 look like a comedy novel & is far more realistic & far more distressing. The UK is set on a trajectory similar to that portrayed in “A State…” – I give it 2 to 3 years before exchange controls are re-imposed – 20 years time Ingerland will be the biggest open air prison in geographic Europe – that is the current trajectory.
I’d say terrifying. I mean if those of us with a passing interests in politic could work out the day after the referendum, that it would take about 10 years to extrapolate from the EU, how does she think it can be done on her terms and in her time, and without paying what she owes? It’s either gross arrogance or just gross stupidity. Or both. I mean, I don’t even think the smartest person in the room has an idea about how complex a job it will be. And as to getting the best deal for Britain, is it beyond her to see the simple fact that if the UK makes a success of Brexit, then there is no point to any country being a member of the E.U. Therefore the EU has an existential interest in ensuring that whatever happens to us after Brexit we’ll be worse off than we were before. I’m now thinking the game must be to leave without a trade deal and blame the EU. That’s the direction we’re headed in.
I think you have the game right
But we’re the losers
I’m sure you’re correct Grace. The arrogance and stupidity of the Britnat mentality will bring these negociations to an early, and unsuccessful conclusion, which the Britnats will try to blame the EU for. And, just as a large portion of the population (less so in Scotland and NI, to your credit) were conned by the EU referendum, so they’ll believe this nonsense.
Of course, this supposes that the French aren’t mad enough to vote Le Pen in as president, and that May is still PM after the election. Depressed as I am by the UK’s current and future situation, if Le Pen wins…..!
However, that’s not looking too likely. May winning the election does unfortunately. Who knows, perhaps the Tory’s arrogance will backfire on them in some unforeseen way.
I am interested in your penultimate paragraph.
This version of Britishness is the explanation both for this particular encounter and for the broader set of assumptions that ‘no deal’ is fine, ‘the EU needs us more than we need them’, ‘freedom not slavery’ etc.
I actually believe it is essentially visceral and unconscious for most adherents. English people (sic) are so unused to talking about national sentiment and identity that they simply don’t recognise that they have particular perspectives and that these might not be shared by others. In this light it is natural to talk of any adverse consequences of Brexit as ‘punishment beatings’.
So will the delusions of national grandeur be challenged or heightened by May’s approach? Her money’s on the latter.
The task is to convince the English electorate that their interests are/were not served by Brexit and that this is more important than a siege mentality towards the world. I increasingly think that can’t be done without a strong dimension addressing identity and how it drives political decision-making.
Effective leaders need advisers they can trust. Unfortunately there is a tendency to choose advisers who agree closely with ones self. They become reluctant to give advice that contradicts what the leader wants to hear. I fear this is what we have with Theresa May. As an apparently powerful leader no one close to her is prepared to tell her just how wrong she is with her approach to Europe.
It could not have been that she was simply not briefed properly. The EU have been saying the same things for many months. She cannot fail to have noticed it.
You suggest that her experience in the Home Office might be a poor background for a Prime Minister. In fact when she was in the Home Office she did remarkably little. She could have done a great deal about immigration and implemented EU regulations to control it but she did not (see: http://outsidethebubble.net/2016/12/06/massive-negligence-by-theresa-may-when-home-secretary/). She has made a series of pronouncements about her approach since she became Prime Minister and very few of them have been delivered satisfactorily (see: http://outsidethebubble.net/2017/04/24/we-need-to-talk-about-theresa/).
Despite her relatively humble background (daughter of a vicar), her background in banking and marriage to an investment manager has helped her to become part of the British establishment. Unfortunately the English upper classes are traditionally contemptuous of foreigners with their funny accents and strange ways. They are confident that foreigners will soon understand that the English view of the matter is fundamentally correct and, with a firm hand, they will bow to the authority of the English.
And that is where her contempt for Europe is now. This contempt is reinforced by the hard Brexit supporting media. The lack of progress in developing an approach to Europe and the Brexit negotiations is extraordinary. Essentially one year has been lost already and probably no more than 18 months is left. I have no doubt that this toxic combination of arrogance and contempt will ultimately be her downfall, and with that downfall will be ours as a successful economic nation.
May has played her card and demonstrated her weakness by calling an election. The EU knows it and the outcome on June 8th will change nothing.
In regards to your second point, about May’s negotiations as Home Secretary, I would recommend the following article:
https://medium.com/@stewartwood6887/theresa-mays-mistaken-precedent-for-a-brexit-based-on-cherry-picking-1e2e6a3b9985#.meh00htd2
It details how as part of the Lisbon treaty negotiations in 2007 the Labour government set up a deal where they were allowed until 2014 to opt out of various police and justice measures and then opt back in on individual measures. In 2014 Home Secretary May therefore opted out of all 130 measures and then negotiated her way to opt back in to 35.
As she said at the time “Many critics said that having sought to opt back into 35 measures, the European Commission and other member states would block us from doing so, or force us to opt into a higher number than we wanted. But they were wrong: our negotiation was a success and we have secured agreement.”
All she has to do now is do exactly the same thing with the single market – opt out and then opt back in to the bits she wants. However, for various reasons, this isn’t possible, including that the opt-out-opt-back-in option was set up as part of the treaty negotiations at its inception and there is no equivalent with the single market.
Stewart was good on this
A Prime Minister who does not know why people use foodbanks –
or, worse, does know, and bullshits about “complex reasons” in order to avoid facing the fact
has a bigger ‘contempt’ issue than just being contemptuous of Europeans who disagree with her.
Her ‘forest hideaway’ visit to Scotland certainly revealed what she thinks of us.
Tory strategists wishing to take electoral advantage of ‘dead politician walking’ Jeremy Corbyn are stuck with an accidental prime minister who is anything but strong and stable.
No wonder there is no desire to take part in tv debates.
If she can’t handle Andrew Marr.
Those strategists must now be looking at the reducing poll lead and wondering …
Makes you almost long for the halcyon days of David Cameron 🙂
Thanks Richard a very interesting post with thoughtful and informed replies.
Sadly Labour’s woes continue Diane Abbott’s performance today has not inspired me either; such a shame as I used to greatly admire her. As Grace says terrifying.
A fuller account of the Downing Street meeting here http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/theresa-may-deluding-herself-on-brexit-says-juncker-1.3067568
I’ve been in studios with Diane
And have provided her with data when requested for years (I do to all MPs who ask)
She does do preparation. It was grim but that was a bad day at the office. And Ferrari is not the person to do that with.
An excellent piece and discussion on why we should be truly worried by the destructive path that May is taking us down. I’ve Tweeted and shared this.
One might add that the way in which she is campaigning, to handpicked audiences with minimal questioning is consistent with all that’s been mentioned here.
The question for all of us is how best to to challenge and campaign against what we can now see to be a massive threat to our futures