The World Bank published a new survey of world trade yesterday which included this chart:
Three thoughts. First that says a down turn is coming to me.
Second, it says that just as trade is becoming more difficult the UK is creating massive uncertainty for itself in rocky markets where there is considerable excess capacity. That's especially true in our area of greatest exposure, which is in services.
And third? The silver lining is less trade in goods is of benefit to concerns over global warming. It's a silver lining, but that does not mean the first two issues do not need to be addressed, because they're looming large right now.
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Most of the freightliner trains running through Derby and Chesterfield these days only seem about half full if that.
And a number of regular freight turns seem to have dried up altogether.
Something seems to be happening.
Indeed, a friend of mine is a potato farmer who has seen a big drop off in orders from Europe directly or through snack manufacturers. I mean, in all the Brexit talk, spuds, SPUDS! Who would have thought a British SPUD would have suffered under Brexit?
That is a co-incidence Dr Crainshraw,I also have a farming friend who specialises in the export of bull semen who is having exactly the same experience, but also is being threatened from a regulatory perspective once BREXIT happens. After 30 years, he is now considering selling up and moving to Ireland where he can continue bull production under the protections, and trade agreements, presently afforded within the EU,
BBC news at 10 last night was very upbeat about the economy. Rising wages, large budget surplus etc, all delivered by Fiona Bruce in a jaunty tone. An institution under threat?
They must be suffering pre-crash delusions
Before being surpassed by Newsnight, that upbeat economic coverage and jaunty tone from BBC News was yesterday’s most enraging moment.
BBC economics coverage is entrenched in a right-wing Overton window.
Richard,
I fear you have misunderstood those graphs.
The falls are in the value of traded goods and services, not the volume.
You’ll find these falls in value correlate well with the inverse of the dollar strength.
That is, you are looking at exchange rate effects.
Nit what the WB says…
It’s exactly what the WB says. Read the graphs again.
Trade has only “fallen” in terms of dollar values, due to the strength of the dollar. Trade volume is up.
Darren, bar chart a. shows volume, graph b. value in dollars. Note that the bar chart clearly shows trade volume fell from 2.7 to 1.9
Ivan, the graph is clearly labelled “percent change”. It shows that the change in trade volume went from an increase of 2.7% to an increase of 1.9%.
A smaller increase in volume is not a fall in volume.
It’s a decline in trend
How hard is that to understand?
“It’s a decline in trend
How hard is that to understand?”
Well, it seems to have escaped Ivan, and – judging from your headline “Trade is falling” – you as well, Richard.
That is trade falling
Slower growth is not on any definition a “fall”.
The value is falling
That’s what I said
And the trend was falling
Andrew, point taken. I wrote in haste, as I usually do with comments. I should have said ‘a decline’ – which is what a reduction from 2.7 to 1.9 is. Thus trade volumes are still positive but not as positve as they had been.
“That is trade falling”
Richard, with respect, you don’t get to redefine the English language in order to pretend you didn’t misread a chart.
A slow down in growth is not, in any way, “trade falling”. The volume of trade falling would be “trade falling”. Trade growing at a slower rate than last year is “trade growth slowing”
I’m genuinely interested in how you can claim a slowing growth rate is a “fall”
Has anyone ever told you you’re tedious?
Actually, the value was falling and that’s what I said
Now please bore someone else
You point out the reality that “less trade in goods is of benefit to concerns over global warming. It’s a silver lining, but that does not mean the first two issues do not need to be addressed, because they’re looming large right now”. Very true. But though the clouds of reduced economic growth may have a silver lining, the real clouds up in the sky are having an adverse effect, at least in Britain. The warm air over the Atlantic, and the influx of damp mild air from the overheated Arctic, are able to absorb more evaporated water, so bringing more cloud to Britain’s skies. I have solar panels fitted on my south facing roof,and keep a record of the electricity generated every day. I can say with absolute certainty, that this past six months has been the dreariest, cloudiest, least energy generating autumn/winter since we installed some years ago. And the mild sunless weather will be having an adverse effect on arable farming, not only not killing off so many pests, but not supplying the solar energy needed for high production of cereals and vegetables and fruit. So though the clouds may have a silver lining, there are just too many of them!
I agree!