This was tweeted last night:
It looks like a disaster for Labour, because it is. But reflect for just a moment and what's obvious is that the poll is wholly rational.
If you're a Unionist the Tories are now bound to be your choice is Scotland: that's their whole point north of the border.
And if you're not a Unionist what's the point of Labour in Scotland?
But then the question has to be asked as to what Labour does now when it has no hope on this basis of recovering any of its lost seats in Scotland? I doubt it knows. And that's why it is where it is.
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I had a lot of time for Ed Miliband – still do, except for the risible “Ed-stone”, which still makes my blood run cold, casting serious doubt on Ed’s judgement and suitability to be PM.
However, far more serious were his two major – gaffes is too weak a word, as is faux pas; catastrophes would be better.
First, the preposterous decision not to attack the Tory fairy story (well, let’s call it as it is – lie!) about the economy being “wrecked” by Labour overspending, because, in airhead Clegg’s words, “they maxed out on the credit cards”
This failure of Ed’s not only permitted the counterproductive destruction of austerity to occur – bad enough – but also permitted the public to continue to be fooled by the puerile tenets of neo-liberal economics.
Ed’s second catastrophe was to campaign with the Tories in the appalling “Better Together” campaign over the indy-ref (it’s notable that Gordon Brown’s powerful, and undoubtedly highly influential, and possibly decisive, intervention simply ignored the whole “Better Together” argument, and went for a direct appeal to Scottishness and Scottish values).
What Ed SHOULD have done was to campaign separately for meaningful devo-max, calling on Labour voters to spoil their ballots by writing in “Neither of the above – but real devo-max”. These spoiled ballots would have had to be reported, and such an option would have enabled Labour to avoid the trap set for them by Cameron – a trap they fell headlong into – of a) accepting Cameron’s crude, binary “Yes/No” question and b) having to side with the Tories if they supported “No”, as Labour had to, given the question was binary.
This would have enabled Labour to present itself as defending Scotland’s real, long-term, interests, which WERE at that time to stay in the Union, but only with devo-max.Instead, they looked like Tory sidekicks, defending the Westminster hegemony that has served Scotland so poorly, and Labour paid the price of their folly (not helped by the fact that Scottish Labour had taken the electorate for granted for years, because they thought the voters had nowhere else to go.)
After BREXIT, however, Scotland’s interests are clearly best served as an independent nation state within the EU – even if that does mean they’d have to adopt the Euro. And if Scotland DOES break away, and stay in the EU, I have little doubt that Wales will follow, and that Northern Ireland will probably already have decided that the lesser evil is to merge with the Republic to give a united Ireland.
All of which raises the tantalising prospect of a Celtic Federation along the lines of the Nordic zone of cooperation, within the EU (which Cornwall – a massive supporter of BREXIT, would seek to join), a Federation likely economically and socially to outstrip the glum “little England” remnant in the centre.
Some decisions really ARE that important, and Ed called the indy-ref wrongly. It increasingly looks as though Jeremy Corbyn has done the same over BREXIT.
I do not agree that we have yet got to the stage where it is so obvious that Scotland should give up its role in the UK.
The nature of the UK’s Brexit is not determined. Although the right are pushing hard for an economic war with the EU under Trump’s leadership it is by no means certain that they will get their way. The Scottish MPs could play a decisive role in defeating them.
No doubt you would argue that it does not matter what the UK does if Scotland is no longer a part of it. The problem is that our economy is wholly integrated into the UK one. One third of the entire output of that economy is sold to the rest of the UK (1.2 million jobs equivalent on Nicola Sturgeon’s own estimate).
If the UK is pushed into an economic war Scotland will be the front line state and we will suffer mightily , whatever the political arrangements.
The difficulty people have with this issue is that they use the unqualified term “independence” when in fact the nationalists have never been able to come up with a policy to achieve economic independence – even in the 2014 referendum.
Yes, I really believe you’re right to say that Milliband made a huge mistake campaigning for better together, although I disagree that Gordon Brown’s tactics were to appeal to people’s Scottish-ness. Gordon Brown didn’t win the referendum for better together. I think people were scared off in the last days by the relentless fear-mongering by the media, in particular the BBC who were in utter panic mode. The lies and scare stories were coming thick and fast from every direction and the people who were undecided took fright. That simple. Telling people their pensions would go was the last straw.
What Brown promised in haste was to deliver devo max but as we all know (and could have predicted at the time) the ‘vow’ wasn’t worth the paper it was written on.
If you ask me another grand error by Milliband was to refuse Nicola Sturgeon’d hand when she told him that the SNP would join them against the Tories but his arrogance got in the way. Such a pity. There might have been an opposition worthy of the name if he had had less ego.
Yes, I really believe you’re right to say that Milliband made a huge mistake campaigning for better together, although I disagree that Gordon Brown’s tactics were to appeal to people’s Scottish-ness. Gordon Brown didn’t win the referendum for better together. I think people were scared off in the last days by the relentless fear-mongering by the media, in particular the BBC who were in utter panic mode. The lies and scare stories were coming thick and fast from every direction and the people who were undecided took fright. That simple. Telling people their pensions would go was the last straw.
What Brown promised in haste was to deliver devo max but as we all know (and could have predicted at the time) the ‘vow’ wasn’t worth the paper it was written on.
If you ask me another grand error by Milliband was to refuse Nicola Sturgeon’s hand when she told him that the SNP would join them against the Tories but his arrogance got in the way. Such a pity. There might have been an opposition worthy of the name if he had had less ego.
Hmm………I feel a song coming on!
Steelers Wheel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DohRa9lsx0Q
Wonder what you mean Andrew Dickie when you say ‘even if Scotland has to adopt the Euro?’ I can’t believe people are still coming out with this nonsense after all this time, especially in the light of Jacqueline Minor’s recent visit to the UK.The EU, said Ms Minor, is not in the habit of forcing the euro on anyone. New member states may be obliged to sign up to the membership of the euro but please note, there is no timescale for this and new members can quite easily, indefinitely postpone membership of the single currency. – as Sweden has demonstrated for the last 22 years. All of this is exactly what supporters of Scottish Independence have been saying since way back in 2011. Joining the Euro involves a series of concrete steps- the most important of which is to join the EU exchange rate mechanism, which is entirely up to the judgment of the member state concerned. No ERM 11, no Euro — simples.
I had been led to understand that newly acceding States (and Scotland would be so regarded) would be required to accept the Euro. If I am wrong on that, I’m pleased to hear it, as that would mean a possible obstacle to Scotland exercising a choice to opt for independence would turn out to be illusory. However, as the discussion at the time showed, Scotland would still have to decide what currency it would use, andxrhe experience of Argentina sugessts that opting to use the currency of a larger neighbour doesn’t work.
Andrew Dickie;
“After BREXIT, however, Scotland’s interests are clearly best served as an independent nation state within the EU — even if that does mean they’d have to adopt the Euro.”
If it’s so clear you’ll have no problem persuading me of this in a few lines. I’m willing to learn something. Thanks.
Shackled to a country that even before BREXIT was ruled by the most deceitful, (“no more top down NHS reorganisations”, and “Child Benefit and Child Tax Credits are safe with us”), deceitful (borrowed more money than all Labour Chancellors combined, and STILL bumped up the National Debt from £950 billion to £1,600 billon), cruel (IDS and DWP, as adjudged by the UN) and corrupt (Cameron stuffed the Lords with mediocrities who happened to donate generously to the Tory Party, surpassing every previous PM by the speed and quantity of such appointments) administration in 200 years, that is clearly bent (used advisedly) on the re-feudalization of society into 1% Barons with ALL the rights, and 99% serfs with NONE of the rights, but which after BREXIT has added in the further poison of a hard BREXIT that will not be nly intensify the disaster in the making that is BREXIT, but will turn the country into a tax haven for the 1%, AND see the completion of the re-feudalization project; further, with the prospects of these same new Barons staying in power for a generation, when they have a history of treating Scotland poorly (Poll Tax guinea pigs, for example) – when all of this, and more, is considered, it strikes me that for Scots independence within the EU is a no-brainer.
Scotland is in the position of Roman galley slaves, who drowned when their ship went down, because they were shackled in their places, and no one thought it worth releasing them.
Independent if the UK, but within the EU, whatever the perils, they would at least be in charge of their own destiny to the extent that any nation can be.
You might be right that Scots would be better off outside the UK but inside the EU and I might end up voting for it.
However I think the most important point in your post is when you refer to Scotland being “independent to the extent that any country can be”. This involves a recognition that “independence” is not the same as the total independence that nationalists seem to offer.
In fact what we surely have to consider is not the extent of independence that any country can achieve but the independence that Scotland can achieve right now in the circumstances we find ourselves in. This is nothing to do with the qualities of the Scottish people. We are as good, and bad, as anybody else. It is about the historical , geographical economic etc. situation in which we are right now.
The fact is that much of life in Scotland is inextricably bound up with life in the UK. The most obvious is the economy and I repeat what I said in my earlier post “One third of the entire output of that economy is sold to the rest of the UK (1.2 million jobs equivalent on Nicola Sturgeon’s own estimate).” That is why Alex Salmond could not come up with an alterative to the economic union in 2014.
In my view the best strategy is the one actually being pursued by Nicola Sturgeon. That is to try to keep the whole of the UK out of the clutches of Trump and the right wing nationalists. If that is achieved we should look to allying ourselves with other parts of the UK like the North of England to rebalance the UK economy, using its resources to rebuild our economic infrastructure and stimulate demand.
If we cannot achieve that we will have to leave. As you seem to recognise that will not be an easy path – certainly not as painless as was portrayed in 2014.
I’ll politely walk past the emotional rant …
You have provided no support whatsoever for your initial point that Scottish interests would be best served by becoming an independent nation and adopting the euro. None. I have enough friends and colleagues in Scotland to hear the emotional stuff whenever I want, you had the chance to convince a wavering/uncommitted participant to your point of view. You passed it up in favour of venting.
Would you care to outline any evidence you have for your case? Any supporting information? Any substantial support at all?
Allan
If you wish to be rude you can do it elsewhere
Difference of opinion is fine
You’re getting close to overstepping the mark
Richard
There’s many an independence supporter who will switch to voting Conservative in these elections, of which I am one.
For nationalists to take the majority of Scots with them in IndyRef2, we have to be a net contributor to the UK. Electorally, it has to be clear as the new output from a still that there is pot of money that can be put to our own purposes as an independent nation, and the only way to get there as far as I can see is to cut some spending and get better value from the rest. Spending £1.20 for every £1 of income and depending on UK largesse and the printing press for the difference will not clinch the fiscal argument with the public.
You clearly need to understand that a balanced budget would shrink Scotland to insignificance
Illiterate economic arguments by the Better Together campaign contributed to the failure of the independence case in 2014. Sadly, not much has changed, and I’m sure the same arguments are being polished up for re-use if there is a second independence referendum in 2018/19.
Economic wisdom has not yet arrived North of the Border, which is hardly surprising when it struggles to get coverage in the London based media. The BBC, which has UK wide “heft”, has a lot to answer for on that score.
I await the new enlightenment and look forward to the “new blog” (got a name yet?) as a source of education.
Whether that view is right or wrong, it won’t take a majority with you in a plebiscite. I’m a realist and the public will not be won over in enough numbers by arguments based on a gap between spending and receipts being filled by foreigners.
Nonsense
The public are being lied to
You’re buying the lie
What do you mean by “filled by foreigners” William?
I do take your point that the media generally, and the unionist parties, will do their best to persuade the public that deficits are inherently bad.
We do not even have the means to boost our economy properly, never mind fill the so-called gap. We need to persuade the public about the nonsense peddled by David Mundell, so-called Secretary of State for Scotland, that we have been gifted huge (Trump quote needed here) powers and should use them to improve Scotland?
Power over income tax (not even complete power by the way) was and remains a trap. Only the Scottish opposition parties believe we have been given any substantive economic power, rather than being sold a pup. The so-called Scottish Labour Party is worst of all, since they refused to agree many options on the table at the Smith Commission – they really, really did not want to give us control of the income tax rates they are now so desperate to see us use.
Apologies to those outside Scotland for the parochial rant (not really).
I agree: almost all Scottish taxing powers have been set as political traps
The Scottish Labour Party are a disaster of their own making: an object lesson in the consequences of taking your electorate for granted.
In short: they all knew that they’d alwats be elected, and their goals shifted to pursuing their internal political ambitions – with success being a safe seat where there was no need whatsoever to engage with the electorate.
To say that the figures who came to the fore after seventy years of this were unappealing is an understatement: unprincipled and arrogant and patronising are accurate, as far as they are describe specific failings; but a thorough understanding can only be reached through study of the Latin Poetry we call ‘Invective’.
Furthermore, the structures of the Scottish Labour Party remain intact, and they are still pursuing the same internal agendas, unapologetically, as if the electorate are irrelevant.
Which is, of course, more true now than it has ever been.
I do not wish to insult anyone here but I will say what I think needs to be said.
I agree that this Government is the most mendacious in my life time at least.
But when I see talk of independence as a solution I just groan inside.
I contend that human beings are actually inter-dependent by nature and the same goes for the nations that they form.
‘No man is an island’ – yeah?
After centuries of conflict, death and suffering I frankly expect more from my political leaders. Do we ever learn?
To emphasise our individuality as people and as nations for me just helps to give credence to neo-liberal views about society as well as dangerous nationalistic and scientific ideas.
If I were Scottish I would be proud of this but it would not preclude my view expressed here (my father’s side of the family originate from there but they have been in England for some time).
The key to survival and peace in this world, this life – is inter-dependence. It drives trade – especially a trade which is not governed by stupid rules that put rent seeking first. And it drives positive human interaction that as seen us evolve and survive.
There is a lot wrong with human society at the moment the world over. But thinking that we should become more independent of anything or anyone is not necessarily the right answer.
For example I would like the UK to become militarily and politically more distanced from the USA but it does not mean totally ceasing relations with them.
I also think that for Scotland to try independence now with such a callous Government in power buts the Scottish people at huge risk. These bastards know how to engineer failure for political advantage. And they would enjoy it too.
But please – independence is over rated and over-emphasised. We puny human beings are a successful species because we know how to work together. Let us remember that.
I agree that humans should work together when they can. I also agree that the UK Tory government is callous and would enjoy attempting to frustrate the humans on this side of the border. The inevitable conclusion, unfortunately, is that we cannot work with the Tory UK government in any meaningful way.
I note further that there’s a UN report which says the treatment of a segment of the human population of the UK by the Tory WM government has been poor to say the least – some might say inhuman.
It is clear from everything said by the Scottish Government that they are not narrowly nationalist, and have no axe to grind with any other humans in the UK, Europe or anywhere else. They have several points of dispute with the UK government, which we believe can only be resolved by disentangling the Union.
It was the anti-independence campaign, supported by people like Ed Milliband, which claimed being independent would make foreigners of their relations living in England. Have you read anything the leaders of the independence campaign said, and continue to say in the face of Brexit, about human rights?
Yes George – I have read what they say but are Scotland’s political leaders not merely being pushed towards a conclusion that will only benefit this Government?
My view remains that Scotland should stay in the union and improve it from being in it – not outside of it. Just like the UK should stay in the EU and make it better from within. Staying in the union may also create more long term strategic opposition benefits too.
Scotland needs to remain cool headed at the moment and hang in there in my view and keep making the case for better and fairer governance.
Picking up your ball and taking it home will simply not do.
I appreciate your right to that point of view, but I don’t accept it as being rational. Apologies if that seems rude.
It was clear from the 2015 GE that our choice of MPs is not acceptable to the bulk of English voters – hence we cannot significantly influence what happens at Westminster. The behaviour of English MPs at Scottish Questions and when our MPs intervene in debates is insulting. It’s mainly the Tories at fault but a significant number of Labour MPs have also been involved. Even Corbyn, who had a lot of support in Scotland, has chosen to regurgitate lies fed to him by the inept branch party.
The situation has been exacerbated, as I’m sure you appreciate, by the Brexit results and the subsequent behaviour of the UK government. The gulf between Scotland and England in socio-political terms has never been greater.
The rejection of every Scotland Act amendment put forward by the SNP shows that we can’t even influence the laws that affect Scotland.
I’m sorry, but I don’t believe there’s the slightest chance we could help to achieve better governance at the UK level.