The FT has reported that:
Discoveries of new oil and gasfields have dropped to a fresh 60-year low, as companies put a brake on exploration and large fields have become harder to find. There were only 174 oil and gas discoveries worldwide last year, compared to an average of 400-500 per year up until 2013, according to IHS Markit, the research group.
Thank goodness for that is my first reaction. And what a waste of money this activity represents is my second. The fact is that most of the oil, coal and gas we now know about has to stay in the ground if we are to have any chance of surviving as a human race here on earth. Finding more when we cannot burn what we know of is then the ultimate corporate folly. Despite this whole rafts of the stock market are valued not on what extractive industries companies actually do but on what their reserves are. If ever there was an exercise in attributing value inappropriately this is it. And sometime the markets will realise and appreciate that what we really need is a Green New Deal.
I think I may be waiting a little while longer though.
But it will happen.
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The fossil fuel lobby has been pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into right wing think tanks over decades to discredit the science regarding global warming. The evidence for anthropogenic global warming is now of course is now overwhelming; but perception is not always reality and given the Trump administration and the Republican dominance in the US we will take a few steps backwards.
In 1979 Jimmy Carter installed solar panels in the White House. There was a big push towards renewables and a false dawn in the ’70s. (I benefited from this during my PhD by being able to use the CRTF – a 6MW solar furnace at Sandia Labs New Mexico at night for astronomical purposes).
When Regan was elected in 1980 the solar panels were removed and we were looking forward to a fossil fuel future. Fast forward 36 years and the science has gone from “the precautionary principle” through “balance of probability” beyond “reasonable doubt” to “virtual certainty” – as for the US administration? The Republican party is possibly even more influenced (corrupted) by the fossil fuel lobby. Fortunately the influence of the US is not what it was and agree the move towards sustainability is inevitable; just a matter of how much environmental damage is done in the meantime.
Depressing
This was on your blog about two weeks ago. I think it is worth publicising again as it is so relevant to this post.
https://youtu.be/Kxryv2XrnqM
The first part of the lecture is about electric cars taking over, and then moves on to driverless cars which we could argue about.
The last part of the lecture, however, we can all get excited about, and stop worrying about global warming!!
We are about to see unsubsidised solar with storage coming in at 5cents/ kwhr, equivalent to oil at 10 dollars a barrel.
Solar plus storage cheaper than the cost of transmission by 2022.
It is worth finding the time to watch this lecture.
I just hope he is right.
For some reason you have to force this video to start at the beginning.
You beat me to it – I did the original post. The video covers two areas where I am professionally active (transport & power generation). It is mostly heading in the right direction. Which leaves the open question: in 9, 10, 15 years to whom will the oil companies sell oil?
Some years ago an oil man called T Boone Pickens realised he was actually in the energy business – & started large-scale development of wind farms in Texas. Shell bought into a 700MW off-shore farm in the Netherlands Dec’ 2016. The Dutch have a pipeline of 1GW/year of off-shore wind projects for the next 10+ years – they used to drill for oil/gas in the North sea – not any more – it is mostly for wind now. In the case of global warming – it looks “real bad” and one way or another we will have to extract CO2 from the atmosphere, failure to do so means significant parts of Australia becoming unihabitable ditto (as an example closer to home) significant parts of Spain.
@David Lucas. Best video I have seen for a while, for anyone concerned with the environment, and the economy. Oil and gas will still be important to many industries e.g. production of jet fuel A (not Green), plastics (not Green), pharma, fertiliser (not so Green) but their use will be more meaningful than just burning in power stations and for motoring. And hopefully we can solve our dependence on plastics through developing alternative plastics or substitutes that bio-degrade or are reusable. It shows how progressive thinking and application of science and technology (i.e. STEM subjects) is vital. It exposes the Govt’s lie on the need for nuclear power (supplied by China & France plc), our dependence on nuclear power has always been predicated on the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction that is slowly contaminating the whole planet. [1], [2] If we had a progressive Govt we would not have to listen to all this distractionary Brexit ****, we could plan a future based on sound evidence and knowledge i.e. developing relationships not destroying relationships.
Politicians display an increasing fear of information and knowledge, and of it leaking out of their control. Trump banned scientists [3] from communicating with the USA public. Similarly scientists in the UK are largely absent in political discussion, all that talent and knowledge unused, why? In my long experience scientists and technologists are afraid of putting their heads above the parapets. I am such a scientist who could not go public for fear of losing major funding (just upset on critical referee who may hold opposing political views) and reputational loss or breaking the numerous confidentially contracts I have and had to signed in University and with Industry. I recently examined a PhD from the Oil Industry, the major finding was important for the environment but of course I can not communicate, essentially having to forget. Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1921 – Fredrick Soddy was “dismissed as a crank” after he published a theory of economics [4], with wide reputational damage although many of his ideas are now part of Ecological Economics. Scientists working in Industry are plain mute, otherwise they maybe be out of a job. Senior university management may put a line through your name if you are politically active, especially if you are not Con, Lab or Lib.
Thus all that STEM knowledge and experience does not participate in pubic debate showing what is possible beyond the narrow tramlines of the regressive political forces and media we are surrounded by today. What a waste! We must free that talent and knowledge to freely participate in public debate. Also, most of the knowledge public funding has created is locked behind the pay walls of a few publishers’ websites; what an opportunity to open up knowledge to the whole world by the stroke of a pen, a cost of c. 0.05% of a military budget.
[1] http://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/local/hanford/article61710052.html
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/03/fukushima-daiichi-radiation-levels-highest-since-2011-meltdown
[3] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-gag-us-government-scientists-environment-stop-speaking-public-tweeting-twitter-climate-a7544971.html
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Soddy
Sadly the UK has been moving backwards on climate policy.
Fracking should be off the menu completely. We are not moving fast enough towards zero carbon. A forward thinking government would see this as an opportunity to lead and reap the benefits when the rest of world needs to catch up.
Well, I have stopped using my diesel car for commuting now and only use it for long distance trips with the family.
Instead I take my bike on the train and because of that I now have very well toned leg muscles and don’t get out of puff walking up hills. Mind you it’s been bloody cold rcently!
The only downside is that the railway routes I use are not electrified. Derby Station is often inundated with diesel fumes. George Osbourne’s decision not to electrify the Midland Mainline was just plain stupid in my view. It would have reduced emissions and created jobs.
Wholeheartedly agree
And I should sue the bike more….
And don’t enough