This morning’s reasons for thinking 2017 may be the year recession returns

Posted on

There is an air of gloom in the papers. I am in the mood for preparing lists. This is my summary of this mornings reasons for an economic downturn in 2017:

  • Brexit uncertainties may hit many economies and not just the UK
  • Trump may start trade wars
  • Rising inflation in Europe may trigger interest rate rises that most Eurozone countries can't afford
  • US tax cuts are likely to trigger US interest rate rises
  • Market sentiment may move against the UK government as the deficit rises forcing a UK interest rate rise in the absence of QE
  • A UK local authority funding crisis may lead to a lack of confidence in long term social care and an increase in saving, reducing current spending as a result
  • Consumer credit is back to an all time high in the UK - which has usually happened before a crash
  • UK house prices may go into reverse if interest rate rises lead to an increase in foreclosure
  • The FTSE 100 and other stock market indices are at all time highs with little underlying logic to that, which has usually happened shortly before a crash
  • There are clear signs of a UK retail down turn
  • Car sales are forecast to fall by 5% in the UK in 2017
  • Italian banks remain on the brink threatening the Eurozone

And of course, we may weather all that.

Maybe.