It's impossible not to think that 2o2o is about perfect vision. It's what the number means. Except that's not how 2020 is going to be. Even is we Brexit in 2019 the 2020 election (if that is when it will be, and it's not a foregone conclusion as yet) will be messy, very angry and, as yet, deeply unpredictable.
Presuming even more serious events do not overtake Brexit (and they might) then it looks as if it will dominate UK politics at that time. And we do, at last, have wise heads pointing out that even if the legal process is complete by 2019 the practical arrangements will hardly have begun. Philip Hammond said so yesterday, making clear that long term transitional arrangements will be required to get us out of the EU. And the Lords have also said much the same thing.
Partly that's inevitable: if we can't start negotiating new trade deals until we leave there won't be any in 2020.
Partly it's down to capacity: there will be just too much to do here in the UK before 2019 to think leaving is possible.
Partly it's because I think politicians will have realised how toxic Brexit is by then because many in the public will have realised just how much it will cost them and fear will be pervading wiser heads in Westminster.
Partly it will be because Europe too will be unable to conclude a great deal by then: even if the heads of agreement on leaving is signed in 2020 actually working out the detail, the costs, and the ongoing payments will involve many years of wholly wasted human effort on all sides that will be solely dedicated to reducing the net sum of human well-being.
Those are sufficient reasons in themselves to be sure that the 2020 election will, assuming Trump has not plunged us into some other crisis, be dominated by Brexit. And assuming that is the case what will happen?
There will be massive anger with the Tories: Brexit means Brexit will prove to be a deadweight around their political fortunes, it's simplistic charm having long proved to be the evidence of gross naivety that will result in a massive wave of anger and mistrust: the veneer of competence will disappear long before 2020 arrives.
UKIP will remain in a mess with its inability to form any sort of coherent policy appealing to most people becoming ever more apparent, although that will not step it gathering a hard core of support from those for whom migration is the sole issue of concern.
The Lib Dem policy of staying in the EU will need some refinement: going back will not be an option by then, although reapplication might be, but the terms would be horrible.
Nationalists will be stronger than ever: Brexit will be seen as a crisis imposed by the English, rightly or wrongly.
And as for Labour? If a Trotsykite Momentum has not torn it asunder by then it will still have problems in appearing credible. Corbyn is not. The old guard who served until 2010 are not. And so far it's not obvious the few others are really capable of unifying it, let alone taking ideas to the country.
So we face a political void in England and nationalism that seeks a European identity holding sway beyond that country's borders.
Is there room for another party now? Could the Greens surge? I doubt it, to be honest. And if not them, what would it be? And would that just add to the confusion if it happened?
The prospect is of an election where anger, fear and disillusionment will be dominant popular sentiment, with all being appropriately based because politics will have failed people right across the board. It's a horrible, and realistic prospect.
And I have no answers as yet. I'll just throw that into the melting pot to add to the sense of despair. Which also makes me wonder whether 2020 might be our last election. I think it worth noting the concern.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Why “rightly or wrongly”? Brexit is a crisis imposed by the English, however uncomfortable it may be to acknowledge the fact.
I clearly acknowledge that possibilty
…but balk at a firm conclusion? Why might it be wrong?
I’ve made the point before that if the Republic of Ireland were still part of the UK; the UK as a whole would almost have certainly voted in. There is no question in my mind that the Irish have got the better of the deal; though its still by no means a perfect country.
This may have an attraction for the Scots, and Northern Irish who voted to remain in the EU by substantial margins. I can’t see the UK holding together as reality sets in.
Brexit will be an “omni-shambles” but there may be a disconnect between perception and reality.
There will be parts of the Tory heartland that will sail on serenely and will remain either in my father’s phrase “Invincibly Ignorant” or they would think “serenely confident”. I believe this mindset will remain. They are wealthy enough to cope with a downturn and have an unconscious belief that the English are the greatest people on earth. (The more I read about May, the more worried I am that she falls into this category). The right wing Tory press will reinforce this; anti EU rhetoric and immigration stories will reach fever pitch. Social bubbles such as Facebook will reinforce this and Breibart News or something similar will become more dominant in the UK. The BBC news will be seen as increasingly anodyne and irrelevant.
In the north of England reality will set in. The Labour heartlands will be very badly hit. The obscene posturing by the Tory’s on social care plumbs new lows even by their standards; and I think this is just a straw in the wind, portending far worse to come. There are signs that the penny is beginning to drop in places like Sunderland. It is complete stupidity of the Labour party to support Brexit. The political situation is very fluid. Of course there are those on the left who see the EU as a one of the pillars of the neoliberal status quo and wish to leave for this reason. I suspect that Corbyn/McDonnell and their inner team are very conflicted. Either way Labour is proving totally ineffective.
I really don’t know what’s going to happen. I’m not sure how the new boundary changes will happen. The Tory’s seen however to be following the US Republican party to change the rules in their advantage and lock England into a permanent Tory majority.
I have just joined the Green Party but have little hope that they will become a major force, particularly in my part of the world. I do however like the leader and most of their policies but will vote progressive alliance; either formal (one can dream) or informal nest election.
My son was ding some homework about WWII a few weeks back and asked me if there would ever be a WWIII. I can’t help but feel that it might have already started but we haven’t realised it yet.
Why would 2020 be out last election?
Because of the risk of a collapse in democracy as a result of its failure to deliver solutions
I’m not sure we will make it to 2020.
We have looming crises in the NHS, Social Care, the prison service, and housing.
Public transport, power supply and water supply are all suffering from under investment and greater than inflation price increases. Little has been done to address flood risk and fracking has the potential to alienate many in Tory constituencies. Oh, and the economy. Yes well enough said about that.
You are right to be worried about the right using Brexit to establish a hegemony over British politics. That is precisely what their leaders have in mind and they are winning so far. The danger is not of an overtly totalitarian state but of a sham democracy with all the institutions of liberal democracy in place but real power in the hands of a business/political elite committed to hard right politics. Britain is in fact quite well down the road to that. If you do not believe me think Rupert Murdoch and Sky or the Daily Mail and Brexit.
This is not inevitable. The MPs can stop it and I would urge everyone to speak to their MP and to raise the issue in local media. If you have the misfortune to have a hard right Tory MP you can be excused.
Parliament’s power is based on the need to repeal the European Communities Act and that should not be done until the final terms of Brexit are seen and approved. Of course Parliament should also see the Government’s negotiating aims before approving the triggering of Article 50.
That is what people should ask their MP to commit to. This can make a difference. It helps to circumvent the baleful influence of the right wing press and reasserts the basic principle of representative democracy.
My MP, in a committed and unwilling to discuss alternatives Tory constituency, has never replied to any of my e-mails sent with anything other than a pre-scripted “part line” may or may not be hard right but his only concern seems to be to retain his seat and MP’s salary. He seems blind and deaf to any concerns that I’ve raised with him.
I have met that sort
Take a bow Liz Truss
Thanks for responding. I can understand your feelings. Actually although your MP has responded with the party line that does not mean that it makes no impact. A lot of Tory MPs are weighing up which side to come down on – particularly in view of what happened to Goldsmith. They are trying to judge what is best to do and will take local pressure into account so you have probably made a small difference just by contacting him or her.
The Government is constantly swaying between hard and soft Brexit and clearly has very little idea what line to take.If your constituency voted to remain and particularly if the MP was a remainer you have something to work on.
I used to be a politician and have had some success in campaigning so I hope you will not mind if I make a suggestion or two.
A visit to a constituency surgery is an idea , particularly if you can take a group of people along and if there is , say, a local employer likely to be affected or some other local issue. There may also be a local paper you could write to.
“Last ever election”? Well, readers of my posts will know I have long argued that re-feudalization of society was Thatcher’s unstated game plan, which of course also includes the possibility of a neo-fascist state, with elections that are either banned, or entirely bogus, as was the case Ib the Soviet Union.
(Sorry, pressed too soon)
But I also endorse Richard’s prognosis of the collapse of democracy in a welter of frustrated hopes, and offer this exceptionally interesting post on the decay of the capitalist world order in general, and of Social Democracy in particular.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/09/wolfgang-streeck-the-german-economist-calling-time-on-capitalism?_utm_source=1-2-2
The article is especially acute on its observation that the elites have no interest in preserving democracy, as it no longer brings them any returns!
That is worryingly true
You speak of the naivity of the tories vis a vis brexit; I rather attribute it to their utter incompetence and unfitness for government (which I suppose is what lead to the naivity).
I am also rather concerned that the sensible concerns of Philip Hammond will be drowned out by ongoing short term thinking and ‘populist’ pressure. All we have heard from the majority of leave supporters is ” See, the sky didn’t fall in on 24th June and it still hasn’t, so suck it up remoaners.”
I suspect there may be a xmas spending binge this year (either people celebrating ‘we’ve taken control back, let’s party’ or, people thinking ‘if we’re going off a cliff, then let’s just enjoy the last dance’). Given that consumerism has been for govt the mark of success for the economy, high sales will be taken as a vote of confidence for brexit means brexit, especially spun by the media, leading up to the March trigger. I fear (given the paucity of thought that May et al have displayed so far) that assumptions about the resistance of the economy for the future will be overhyped and much needed safeguards completely ignored. So the outcome for 2020 will be even worse, based on entirely false premises.
Separately, I am also very curious about your ‘last election’ statement. That came out of the blue (and I admit to the paucity of my own thinking, as I can’t get my head around the idea). How do you imagine that would be handled? By dictatorship? By a national emergency government continuing from that elected in 2020? Sorry to be such a dork on this Richard, could you explain a bit further what you envision in those circumstances please?
I think democracy is at risk of collapse
I feel violence and threats all around me, too often
I see naked aggression
I fear it being exploited
I think there are politicians who would be willing to do that
Dictatorship is possible
A coalition could stop it
I think people of political persuasion may be too short sighted to coalesce
“Brexit will be seen as a crisis imposed by the English, rightly or wrongly.” Well only if it is understood that it was one initiated by yet another British Prime Minister of Scottish origin!
This is the first time I’ve seen Philip Hammond described as a wise head and agreed with it. So there will be a transitional period and we’ll have to pay too! Who could fail to be delighted?
As many of us indicated before the referendum, a vote to leave would waste resources as it results in an all embracing obsession for the government for years to come. And we’ll be poorer too…
The worrying counterside to this is that the European Commission will get the idea that getting out of the EU will be shown to just too difficult so it will give them renewed determination to throw their weight around. This is yet another compelling reason to wait till after French and German elections — and maybe the Italian ones too – before giving any notice.
Second – I cannot believe this has not already been highlighted but it seems that Brexit is pretty much bound to end up in front of the EU Court of Justice as there looks to have been having cake and eating it, too, in the European Council, where Britain is now excluded -while a full member!
https://www.crowdjustice.org/case/brexit-for-the-100/
We can only hope that these legal challenges last long enough to delay Brexit in time for the country to come to its senses and as long as we are not out by then, a new referendum or at least an ‘in out’ election will be in prospect in 2020.
In the meantime the irony may be that the House of Lords will be the bastion that enables democracy to scrape through …
Andrew
Indeed the last sentence is particularly telling:
“If I am honest, now I am thankful for every passing year that is good and peaceful. And I hope for another one. Very short-term, I know, but those are my horizons.”
I’m beginning to feel that way in my darker moments
Me too
Sean, you say “I’m beginning to feel that way in my darker moments” How I hasten to agree.
Already the neo-feudalism that I believe was long planned, is clearly coming to fruition, based on the Social Darwinianism of Thatcherism (Not only is there “no such thing as society”, there’s also “no such thing as co-operation”, or rather, “no permissible thing such as co-operation”: instead, competition “red in tooth and claw” is the ONLY permissible mode!)
The next stage is the clearly developing neo-fascist “status quo” of elections that are either bogus, or simply banned – and the Tories are indeed putting in place a Franco-style status quo in which dissent will not only be forbidden, but marginalised, or at best reduced to a mere shadow show.
What I fear, however, is the growth of neo-Malthusianism. The brutal truth is that Shelley’s message “Ye are many, they are few” is less and less relevant, and has ever weaker traction.
For, whereas Marx’s analysis of a wealth=creating proletariat, constituting at least 80%, and probably more like 95%, of the population, with an essentially parasitic class of 5% of wealth-consumers was entirely valid, probably as recently as 2000, maybe even later, the acceleration of change in the global economy since then, with its (likely) exponential growth in automation, means that Pareto’s 80/20 rule now begins to have a terrifying new meaning.
For the truth is that the 80% are now no longer necessary to the 20% for the maintenance of their “wealth creation”. All the 1% now need are the services of that remaining 19% to allow the global “Monopoly” game that constitutes “the New World Economic Order” and the 80% can go hang.
Biologists have flagged up their fears that the eco-system is currently on the tipping point of the next evolutionary “great extinction”: my fear is that, as far as the elite are concerned, 80% of the world’s population can be included in that “great extinction”, without any hindrance to their continued ability to accumulate wealth, and that they will be (are?) indifferent to that fact, if not actually progressing it.
Richard has pointed out how we could take charge of BREXIT in a positive way, to make life better for all (and despite your justified criticisms of Labour’s stance on BREXIT, I do think that is what John McDonnell meant when he said BREXIT was a great opportunity – something for which he got a lot of stick), but Richard’s view is predicated on the premiss that everyone is of value, that we CAN build a fairer society in which ALL can participate, that we CAN wind back things to build a society based on co-operation rather than competition, especially one in which everyone has SOME work, rather one in which the minority are overworked, while the majority are unemployed or underemployed and marginally paid.
However, Wolfgang Streeck (see the article I posted) has already dismissed such ideas as utopian, and it seems to me that this is the real choice ahead of the global community:
Do we choose to go down the path of preserving the 20% (who will inhabit the world of E.M.Forster’s “The Machine Stops”, in all probability) at the expense of the 80% (who will be condemned at first to the world of “Soylent Green”, before the meet an even grimmer fate)
OR
Do we choose the exact opposite, by coming together to build an entirely different world, which IS possible, given our technology and the world’s resources, in which everyone has enough to live a decent life, while still allowing those who aspire to have more to do so – but within reasonable and democratically accountable, bounds?
Frankly the omens are not good – look at Rupert Murdoch’s renewed campaign for total media hegemony for one, or the prospect of a narcissistic sociopath as President of the USA for another. I fear we are in the 59th second of the 59th minute before midnight, and so fully share your “darker moments”.
As others have alluded, I think that democracy and capitalism are already in the process of collapsing to be honest.
Those who like to make money and grab power see this as an opportunity – ever since 2008 – they have smelled blood in the water. What should have happened is that this should have been the tipping point for a new captialism and it very nearly was except for the fact that so indoctrinated is the West now in neo-liberal economics that there was really no alternative vision being put forward by the poltiically active.
I watched Adam Curtis’ latest film ‘Hypernormlaisation’ and it made perfect sense to me. He depicts Russia’s present regime where Putin’s government funds both opposition parties or movements that seem opposed to it.
This presents a mirage of a functioning democracy to the world when in fact is it just a way for the Government to control events and also spread confusion amongst the people. It is an abuse of power. In Russia these tactics are being used by Putin to portray the country as a modern vibrant democracy.
Meanwhile in the UK, Labour fight amongst themselves yet look at the Tories: May is nice to the Saudi’s whilst Johnson says what is on other people’s minds. What maybe is actually happening is that the Tories are doing the same as Putin – trying to appeal to everyone and causing confusion whilst they get on dismantling our country and handing it over to the lowest bidder for the highest personal return.
The only way to counter act this is to protest is some way or form.
But also Trumpism and BREXIT have the ultra-capitalist seeds of their own destruction within them. Look at Trump who has just gone it seems and hired a load of ultra right wingers whose policies helped to get us in this mess to begin with. Look at BREXIT and realise that beyond dealing with immigration UKIP are no better than the Tories. Really nothing has changed and although things will get worse we are still living in a mostly right wing neo-liberal world.
I still have faith that people will see through this at some point. And this is indeed that point that Grmasci identified long ago that the birth of the new can be held back and chaos will rule. But only as long as we let it.
OMG! Some pretty dire predictions here to cheer one up on a dark damp Tuesday evening. I pray to a superior power that the worst will not come true. Usually I’m a prophet of doom but in this instance I can’t believe there will be a total collapse of western society within the time scale – 2020 is only 4 years off. Human beings are disaster-prone but have also increasingly learned how to reorder the chaos they create with ever more sophisticated and ingenious BandAid. Of course this is simply kicking the can down the road.
While I agree there are very worrying fascist / popularist tendencies in Europe. And all the heterodox economists plus some post-Keynsians appear to be predicting another financial crash any time soon. If that materialises with the outcomes they suggest (i.e. worse than 2008) then what is already an unstable situation will trigger social upheavel on an historic scale. However, I don’t feel we’re at a tipping point … yet.
Re. the UK I’m no psephologist, but all one can do is extrapolate from the present and my guess would be a bigger majority for the Tories who will pull any number of rabbits out of hats, irrespective of the Brexit outcome. For the bad stuff they’ll blame any one or all of the following: the last Labour government and the 2008 crisis, the French, the Russians, the Japanese economy, the undeserving poor, the weather, etc. etc. For any good news they’ll simply congratulate themselves, and keep bleating on about the need to balance the books because they know that’s what the electorate believes.
Both UKIP and the LibDems will pick up some seats. UKIP more – in areas you’d expect – the NE, parts of Lancashire and maybe North Kent; the LibDems in their old stomping grounds of the SW and maybe inaccessible areas of Scotland.
How the Labour Party will do is anyone’s guess. While I don’t think it’ll be a total melt-down, it can’t be good news can it?, especially as it doesn’t look as if there’s any appetite to ditch JC at this stage. And they’ll not make inroads against the SNP. So I think Diane Abbott is a touch optimistic.
Hopefully the Greens will significantly increase their voters (espcially among the young) but it won’t translate into parliamentary seats.
A few evergreen quotes seem pertinent:
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” – Niels Bohr
“Events dear boy, events” – Harold Macmillan (when asked what is most likely to blow governments off course).
“The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.” – Antonio Gramsci (this seems to have become the quote ‘du jour’).
“Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.” – John Allen Paulos
“It’s the economy, stupid.” – James Carville for Bill Clinton.
Thanks