Maidenhead is probably rather similar to Richmond Park.
And as a result its MP will not be risking a general election any time soon, I suggest.
By-elections resolve some questions.
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“Maidenhead is probably rather similar to Richmond Park.”
I don’t think you’ve ever visited Maidenhead!
Remain vote
Heathrow
Commuters
Notionally solid Tory
I think there are similarities
Held by May since 1997 so probably lots more inertia.
Accepted
But all my local sources said Goldsmith was very popular
So I am not sure the comparison still does not hold
The only fly in the ointment of your argument is whether the Supreme Court decision on who triggers Article 50 goes against the Government and that results in parliamentary fun and games that mean the PM cannot proceed as she wishes. Until recently this looked like it would a possibility for her to increase her majority. Now it may just be because she literally has no choice, no matter what the polls are saying. Parliamentary gridlock may still be on the cards.
I agree
Its funny how turnout was around 20% lower than last general election and yet the lib dems will cry its an endorsement of them. Yet if the eu referendum country wide has a higher turn out they claim people don’t know what they were voting for etc etc so another vote is necessary.
Aside from the fact that the Foreign & Commonwealth Office do not seem to possess a copy of the Lisbon Treaty, which seems to be kept in Italy, so nobody seems to know the precise wording!! there is now proper legal opinion that in order to leave the EU, triggering Article 50 is not in fact required:
http://moneyweek.com/dont-trigger-article-50-just-leave/
For political reasons I hope that it remains a minority view, although personally I have to agree with it.
The difficulty with the ‘just leave’ approach is that all foreign investment into the UK will also ‘just leave’. No rational person puts their money into a country prepared to arbitrarily break every agreement it has signed up to, and we have signed up to a lot of them in the last 40 years.
It is painfully obvious that the woman writing the article has never negotiated an agreement, much less grappled with the way in which businesses conduct themselves; cunning plans are all very well for Blackadder, but the real world doesn’t work like that. The BRexiteers appear to be doing their best to bankrupt Britain as it is, and we have seen from the by election that telling people who have genuine concerns about the way the country is heading to just shut up is not a viable political strategy.
It isn’t a viable economic strategy either; every single CEO of the multinationals with a significant presence here would be facing shareholders demanding to know why they had put vast amounts of money into a banana republic. I appreciate that the BRexiteers would be unhappy to find themselves classed as functionaries of a banana republic, but they can’t change the way people perceive behaviour like this…
One thing it wouldn’t be is arbitrarily breaking an agreement. The treaty says “Any member state may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements” (though whether this is what the FCO version says we don’t seem to know!)
“Do as I say or you will get hurt.” Its not working anymore Stevie.
“The BRexiteers appear to be doing their best to bankrupt Britain as it is”
The UK government is a currency issuer.
“here would be facing shareholders demanding to know why they had put vast amounts of money into a banana republic. I appreciate that the BRexiteers would be unhappy to find themselves classed as functionaries of a banana republic, but they can’t change the way people perceive behaviour like this…”
First of all, that is not happening. There have been a number of high profile investment announcements in the UK over the last several months:
1. Last week (November 25, 2015) Jaguar Land Rover announced that the company planned to increase its production output by 100 per cent to 1 millions cars by 2020.
Relatedly, the car manufacturer “said that designing and engineering its vehicles in the UK is a vital part of the company’s heritage” and that it “wanted to make Britain a global centre for battery research and development to power electric vehicles.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/25/jaguar-land-rover-reveals-vision-building-electric-cars-britain/
2. The troubled Tata Steel UK operation has apparently sold off its Specialty Steels business in South Yorkshire to a London-based group (Liberty House).
The company also said it was working to “to develop a more sustainable business in Britain”
http://www.moneylife.in/article/tata-steel-uk-selling-speciality-business-to-liberty/48984.html
Liberty has been buying up other Tata Steel assets elsewhere in the UK.
3. The big three IT companies Apple, Facebook and Google have all announced major investments in the UK.
Facebook will invest in a new “a major London headquarters” at Fitzrovia, while Google “plans to build a new campus at King’s Cross”. Meanwhile Apple “s moving into Battersea Power Station‎, helping to generate new jobs and economic prosperity for Londoners” https://www.ft.com/content/1b7f2478-14d8-315f-9a5f-dff3796fc062
Secondly, if it did, let them go. A company is an artificial shell. The actual people that do the work stay here because it is rather a nice place to be. You get local firms expanding instead of te multinationals.
As we can see with the number of EU fanatics who apparently still reside in the UK despite having 27 other choices open to them.
I can assure you that the FCO do have a copy of the Lisbon Treaty, and that they have read it. Further, they know what has been said of it, and made of it; they know what they, in turn, can say, and what is better left unsaid.
Infortunately their Minister is the product of expensive education lavished upon a baboon, and *he* says whatever he pleases, true or not and to Hell with the consequences.
Nissan Motor Manufacturing (UK) Ltd sells all its products to Nissan International SA, based in the low-tax canton of Rolle, Switzerland. No doubt Jaguar Landrover and the rest of these non-British companies have similarly arranged their affairs. That is why Brexit will not make any difference to these guys.
“The United Kingdom withdraws from the European Union (as directed by the people of the country in the referendum of June 2016)”
Extract from article – the problem is – who in the UK can make that decision? the executive or parliament? we will soon know that decision given the pending high court case. The article was simplistic. & the bit “as directed” – oh please – there was no direction – it was a “consultation”. I’ll be involved in another gov’ consultation – real soon. They may or may not listen to what I & my client says. If they don’t it will be “oh well” perhaps next time. 52/48 = “the people of the country” – I don’t think so – at best – “some of the people”.
Bob
I fear that after more than 30 years in the City of London my notion of large numbers is a great deal larger than your notion of large numbers. From the City’s perspective you are talking about chicken feed.
Carol
Someone, somewhere, in HMRC is cheerfully arguing about the transfer pricing between the UK and the Swiss Nissan companies…