The FT noted this in an email last night:
Just one week remains in the US election, and financial markets are spooked as polls tighten amid a flood of fresh controversies. Mostly, investors are scared of a Donald Trump victory.
I'm not spooked by Trump. Worried witless, maybe. But spooked, no way.
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It is not just Trump per say but the fact that the Republicans will control both houses of congress and be able to appoint a stooge to the supreme court; locking in overall control for many years. The Republicans have had overall control of the Supreme Court since Regan’s time until Antonin Scalia died last year. It remains balanced at present. Such ludicrous decisions as giving Companies the same right as People under the American Constitution have been disastrous.
Even if Clinton wins strongly it will be very difficult to regain control of the House of Representatives as the Republicans have used Gerrymandering on an industrial scale. I have a particular dislike of Gerrymandering – it was one of the triggers for the Norther Ireland Troubles where Derry was a classic case of the Unionists controlling a Nationalist city.
The Republican views on climate change are recklessly irresponsible and rolling back US climate regulations and “Clexit” is my main worry.
The power of the president has been curtailed significantly over the past 4 years;I’m not sure how Obama copes. There was a fascinating three part documentary on his time in office not so long ago; the maliciousness of the Republican obstructionism was breathtaking.
A Trump presidency could be largely dysfunctional given the state of the Republican party and at least if it is disastrous he can be gotten rid of after 4 years. Unlike Brexit in the UK. In general Republican presidencies have never been the disaster I thought (though Regan did similar damage to the US as Thatcher did to the UK – and GWs invasion of Iraq was the worst military decision in my lifetime). Similarly Democrat Presidents have not lived up to expectation. I forgive Obama given the opposition he has had.
It is also the overall rise of the Right and the worry that the past 70 years of relative peace in the West at least is much more fragile. There is a 1920’s and 1930’s smell in the air which will definitely get stronger if Trump is elected.
Maybe I should be more relaxed
No
You are too relaxed
As I got the Brexit vote correct, Richard, I’ll also say that I’d now have a bet that Trump wins. I suspect the polls have underplayed his position in a similar way to they did here with Miliband and for the same reason. Additionally, the latest email fiasco gives enough undecided voters the ammunition they were looking for to justify giving the establishment – of which Clinton is an integral part – a kicking, similar to the Brexit vote here. What now fascinates me is the style and form of the administration under Trump. Nepotism will be rife, no doubt. And we can expect lots of hiring and firings as he runs the White House as he does his businesses. Which makes me wonder how long his Vice President is prepared to put up with that, or Trump with him. They’ll be much more, of course, given how many pledges his given of action within his first few weeks as president.
And on the slim possibility he losses? Well a new Trumpist Party must be on the cards as the man will not admit defeat and so has to manufacture something out of it. Anyway, not long before we find out.
I fear you are right
I’d go so far as to predict an easy victory
Oh, god, I think you’re right. Must consult my own oracle who always gets election results right.
@Ivan. Yes, I am of the opinion that Trump might win because of the hatred engendered towards the elite, if this final week of campaigns and advertising are as effective as claimed he might get there against the odds. Money is pouring into the Florida campaigns. Recent politics underlines that ‘experts’ and ‘evidence based policy’ are not regarded nay even hated. This is where faith (not just religious faith) based politics takes over the US Establishment’s duopoly game. As Trump says “its only words folks”.
I suspect Trump’s first policy statement will be – “Great means Great”.
Richard, I think a lot of people are forgetting how probability works and have written Trump off far too early based on polls showing Clinton having a 70% or more chance of winning. 70% sounds a lot and might instinctively make people think that Trump is a no hoper. But that clearly leaves a 30% chance of him winning which we might instantly disregard but is still reasonable.
The supposed gold standard of US election polls, Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight blog currently has Trump on 28.8% so around a 1 in 3 chance. But it is neither shocking or that surprising if a 1 in 3 chance comes good. To put it in perspective flicking a coin twice and getting two heads is a 1 in 4 chance. So according to the polls Trump has a better chance of winning presidency than you do of taking a coin from your pocket, flipping it twice and getting two heads. Nobody would be that amazed, shocked or surprised if you were to perform such a coin flip.
Agreed
As Harold Wilson famously said “A week is a Long Time in Politics” and Trumps odds are shortening rapidly. As Rick says http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ is a good place to keep an eye on.
I think it will be close. I was hoping for a Democrat landslide but that hope is rapidly receding. I have never been a Republican supporter, but at least I can respect the older generation of Republicans such as John McCain. The newer ones are however are a different matter.
The result could be similar to 2000 but with a narrow Clinton victory and Trump refusing to concede defeat. It may come down to Florida again.