i am not the biggest fan of the City of London even if, paradoxically, I am a professor at its university. What I can say though, with some certainty, is that the City does not like being ignored. Those with money think they have right to set the agenda. And right now that's not what is happening.
There seems very little doubt at all now that the Conservatives have decided that there is no point negotiating Brexit. Notice will be given. Time will be served. Some appearance of discussion will be presented. And, inevitably given the negotiating stance now being adopted, hard Brexit will happen. WTO rules will then apply to trade. And every advantage the City had with Europe will probably be lost in the process.
This is the last thing the City wanted.
But it is, most likely, what they will get.
And you can be sure they will not like it.
In which case I have to wonder what their retribution will be? Will they leave? Will they fight the Tories who have never been their completely natural allies, the Liberals of old being their best fit? Or will they just make do and admit they're not as powerful as they would like to think they are?
One to watch.
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I think you are right and that we are coming to the end of a long period (since the early 1970s) in which the City was the dominant interest in UK politics (before then they had to compete with both the manufacturing interest and organised labour). The Conservative party is, I think, rapidly reverting back to its historic identity and will be pusuing an agenda that doesn’t fit the City’s interests. As you say the old Liberal party would have been a better vehicle for them and we may see the emergence of a broadly liberal party in opposition to the newly emerging Conservative agenda. It isn’t just ‘hard brexit’ either, the City and allied interests are very keen on fairly free migration and on an international order dominated by supranational rule setting organisations rather than sovereign states, so lots of room for political conflict.
You forgot to mention that “the City” – or more correctly many members of it – might stop making their regular and very sizeable donations to the Tory party, Richard.These then entitle them to membership of the “leader’s group” and all sorts of events where nobody ever attempts to influence public policy, of course. They just give that money out of the goodness of their heart – charity by any other name!
Interesting to note, as Private Eye frequently does, that many of those who now give money (and I’m not talking a few thousand but £50,000 (which buys you membership of the”leader’s group”) and much more, have Russian connections in some form or another. Given that Russian’s have already transformed many parts of our capital into Londongrad one wonders whether one of our major trading partners after Brexit will be our Slavic cousins in the East. Perhaps that’s why Liam Fox and co are so against the EU setting up its own defence force. After all, we do know that many Tories are not averse to taking up with dictators – indeed they seem to revel in such relationships, as they demonstrate every time they go forlock touching and knee-bending to their friends in the middle east.
What a strange world we live in that after Brexit our two biggest trading “partners” may well be a communist and former communist (now, a so called “managed democracy”) states, followed up by a selection of the worst dictatorship in the world. Then again, thinking about it, given the predisposition of many Tories to exploitation and control of “the masses” it isn’t so odd after all.
I believe that John Le Carre wrote a quite good novel on the subject (Russian money in London etc). £50k is (literally) lose change to most of the Russian oligarchs & hangers on, ditto many Chinese. The EU has a trade emborgo with Russia… post Brexit one does not have to work too hard to join up the dots. Regardless of what Putin does to the Syrians – from a tory point of view, if they can stop the unfortunates crossing the Staits of Dover then it will be very much an EU problem (cue bowl water soap & towel). Meanwhile the good times will roll with Russian/Chinese/..?? monied people.
Has anyone heard whether there is any chance of the court case to force the government to hold a parliamentary vote before activating article 50, winning?
I know predicting the future is a mugs game, however all the objective evidence I read and fire in my belly think leaving the EU would be a huge economic gamble with the odds stacked against the UK.
The world is integrating, agreeing common regulation of goods and services is one of the greatest achievement of the EU – we need to integrate and corporate if we are to solve bigger issues than Brexit – deforestation, water and climate to mention a few.
My European friends who live and work in the UK are offended by the result of the vote, they are all more than happy to leave if we do not want there excellent skills.
After Brexit we will not need an immigration policy we will need policies to try and keep people from leaving. Maybe this explains why they have decided they need to train more Doctors in the UK.
I am afraid this is a very common misconception.
1) The number of states in the world is growing rather than reducing, since the end of WW2. This is due, basically, to empires’ fragmentation and artificial borders being corrected.
2) There are also economic studies (I may find the reference if you want) that show how a small and homogeneous country can react more effectively if confronted with global challenges.
3)The world is not integrating; treaties and regulations are either forced down weaker countries’ metaphorical throat at gunpoint or get approved on the wave of deceitful but drumming propaganda financed by world economic powerhouses.
4) In many European countries the propaganda above is now crumbling in front of the evidence and most people cheered Brexit as the first blow against an undemocratic, deflationary, deeply unjust order.
To end on a personal note, I am Italian and Brexit is a problem to my personal finances but this is much bigger than me; this is about freedom and democracy.
Could we *actually* see ‘the City’ come out to bat for Labour if they take Burnham/Smith’s position of cancelling and/or holding a 2nd vote? What a sight that would be, almost enough to make you believe in the end of days.
“Could we *actually* see ‘the City’ come out to bat for Labour if they take Burnham/Smith’s position of cancelling and/or holding a 2nd vote? What a sight that would be, almost enough to make you believe in the end of days.”
I don’t think Burnham and Smith have taken the trouble to analyse the EU referendum results which clearly shows the C and D economic classes and their sympathisers rebelling against the pressure being brought on their income and job prospects by the EU’s open immigration policy (the largest second language of EU citizens is English) and also related to that was the lunatic austerity cuts of Cameron and “Ripper” Osborne which had a disproportionate effect on these classes income top-up benefits from government(local and central state).
Yes – this is very beleiveable. But I would also say that there are members of the City who love the chaos that this sort of thing produces and are masters of making hay out of opportunities like this.
Looking longer term though, I would not be surprised if one day we return to the EU – something that the City may well be advocating after we do indeed leave.
Only time will tell.
With EU politicians being intransigent in regard to their open immigration policy, despite English (47%) being the largest second language of EU citizens, the UK government (from a theoretical moral standpoint) has a remit to ensure the well-being of all its citizens not just citizens who work in the City of London.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/26/europeans-multiple-languages-uk-ireland
http://www.promotics.net/ticktack/survey/eustats.htm
The Conservatives are now the only political party in England capable of forming a government.
They face no opposition in Parliament or the media: what does it matter if the City supports them or not?
The next step for bankers would be to start cultivating factions and credible leaders in the Party: but there are none, unless you hold your nose and deal with George Osborne. And that’s stretching a definition of ‘credible’.
Brexit’s only advantage is that it will expose the threats of the City to take its bat and ball away as the protestations of the spoilt child that it is.
Even if eventually they did all decide to push off to Frankfurt, every time RBS pays another American fine I think that these were the clever people that have required the British taxpayer to export their money to pay the American taxpayer. And the City says it’s essential to UK prosperity! Frankfurt is welcome to them.
And if the government didn’t have the City splashing money around perhaps it might finally realise where money really comes from.
The thing is we are highly likely to still need a financial centre of some sorts but I would prefer one that was more regulated and more long term in its thinking – and smaller too.
Richard,
How do you manage to keep your sanity whilst rubbing elbows with the entire neoliberal establishment each and every day in the City?!
I don’t rub elbows with them
For a start, as a researcher I will be very largely working from home…