I have explained why I will vote Remain next week. I am not going to change my mind. I just accept the possibility that not everyone will think or act as I do. That's what democrats have to accept. What then? It is a question that has to be considered for four reasons.
The first is that it is interesting, and asking it after the event if the vote is Remain will have little relevance because the piquancy will gave gone.
The second is that compared to a vote for Remain, which means life carries on as normal, it is a testing scenario.
Third, it looks like it's a real possibility now.
Fourth, and easily the most significant, is that very few people seem to have done it.
There is no chance of one blog, or one mind map of reasonable size, dealing with the issues that will arise: I might develop some of the themes over the next week or so. The one that really interests me though is that last one. How has it happened than an act so reckless as to the futures of the UK, the well being of the people of its nations and the function and future role of its body politic been allowed to take place with such little consideration for the consequences?
The question can be agonised over or answered in a single word, which is arrogance. The referendum was Cameron's equivalent of John Major's Conservtive party leadership resignation moment. In both cases they had reached the point where they had sufferspedthose they felt to be the 'bastards' for long enough and demanded 'put up or shut up'.
There is a difference though. Major put his own future on the line. Cameron put the country's in the same position. Major was pretty sure of the outcome. So too was Cameron. There was however another difference: no one really doubted Major had called the odds right even if it was apparent he would be doomed when he had to face the country. Cameron looks as if he might have got his odds spectacularly wrong. Even a narrow Remain, which is the best he could hope for now, would release the type of backlash that has swept the SNP to their current position in Scotland. Arrogance is the only explanation for that.
Of courses it would be easy to say that this is an arrogance that comes from Cameron's position of privilege. But that does not explain why some of those with similar backgrounds are opposing him. The issue is not as simple as conventional class attitudes.
Rather, the arrogance is that of a prevailing cohort of power that has reached a point where it has lost the ability to think that it could lose that power. This arrogance is that if the Establishment. Owen Jones did a good job ddefining this: I won't re-cover his ground. What I will say is that there is a very obvious elite in society. It does cross political divides, to some degree. It does embrace large parts of politics, the professions, business, military and the legal system. And, dangerously, neoliberalism has given it a hegemony that restored its confidence after the battering that it took from 1929 onwards. That restoration of confidence had reached the point where it has felt itself insurmountable.
It is paradoxical, of course, that this elite is being challenged at present by those who appear to be a part of it. That though does not alter my thesis. The actions of Johnson, Give, Farage and the Tory Brexit camp are old fashioned power grabs seeking to realign the control in their particular favour. Such plotting has always been the favourite pastime of elites since time immemorial. But I have little doubt at all that people will not be voting for their positions, or them as people, or what they have even had to say come June 23rd. Rather they are voting against the elite. Johnson et al had better take note.
The wave of rejection has some deeply unsavoury aspects to it. The racism is the most obvious and is deeply worrying. But again this is not the 'why' of the voting sentiments currently being expressed, in my opinion.
That why is simply that voting Leave is like having for the very first time an option of saying 'none of the above' and a lot of people are going to take it.
This is a rejection of the politics of hegemony.
And of the power of corporations.
It's a giant rebuff to the status quo.
It is an expression of deep anger; at being left behind economically; of having the wealth divide rubbed in faces; of being left feeling powerless; of having little hope of changing anything.
And then the chance to spite the system arrived. And even if leaving is wholly irrational (and I have laid out why I think it is) people may well vote for it because Cameron, in his arrogance, assumed he could cajole and frighten people to do his bidding and so get them to solve his own little local difficulty and instead he created the chance for people to say 'sod off, the lot of you'. And there is a real chance they will do just that.
No wonder Remain are panicked. No wonder the EU power structures are. No wonder the rearguard action so retain control despite a referendum looks to be the only option being discussed by those who fear losing power. That is what an elite does when faced with a crisis that rocks the state to its core, which is what a Brexit vote would do.
What is not being asked is how this decision is embraced if it happens. And how we adapt to it. And what has to happen as a consequence. It's the arrogance that is stopping that happening: the idea of rejection is beyond an elite's comprehension.
Some rude awakenings do, at the very least, look to be possible soon. And that may be very uncomfortable for many, including those leading the Leave campaign.
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Richard
The current copy of the London Review of books has very useful piece by Francis FitzGibbon
‘If we leave’, free to read online currently. It underpins your concern.
In another article on Farms and farming the loss of EU subsidies on farming and conservation are discussed. Goodbye fields hello agribusiness.
Regards
Paul
I’ll take a read
Thanks
Farming will be the biggest beneficiary of a Brexit. The CAP system has been a disaster, rewarding landowners rather than farmers. And it has led to the ruin of our pig farmers because we insist on higher standards of animal husbandry.
Carol, you should probably read this for an alternative view:
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n12/james-meek/how-to-grow-a-weetabix
I suspect that what’s left of British farming will be wiped out in the event of a Brexit. The Tories have no need for it, and little sentimental attachment. Better to frack, build, and to hook up with agribusiness.
The question on the ballot is to leave the EU. Nothing else.
Leaving the Single Market, the Common Aviation Area, EHIC and any of the other forms of cooperation we have that involve both EU and non-EU countries are not included in the question on the ballot, despite what the Leave campaign seem to think.
Anyone wanting to leave any of that lot has to vote accordingly in 2020.
I’m still waiting for evidence that NOR/IoM/LIE/SWI/ICE etc are on average rubbish countries due to their higher levels of economic freedom, and I’m not expecting any answers.
Membership of the single market, the EEA, is conditional on membership of *either* the EU or EFTA. We left EFTA to join the EEC, so we’d have to apply to re-join. I suspect we’d not get any special favours. We’d have to adopt the Norway model, where we continue to pay in and have to accept a substantial raft of EU legisation. So, much the same as being in, but without a vote.
EHIC is an EU institution – we’d lose that unless we went in via the EFTA route again.
We’d also lose the automatic right to travel to EU countries without a visa. I’m wryly amused by the rather bleak thought that the England fans currently chanting about “We’re all voting out!” in France may be on their last ever visit to the continent. Because if I were in charge in another EU country, I’d block them from getting visas for 10 years for the slightest infraction.
The other EU countries don’t want us to leave (though some of their citizens might) – they’re not likely to treat us kindly if we do.
Referenda are rare in the UK but very common in Ireland. Too often the vote had nothing to do with the issues but give people the opportunity to give the Government a bloody nose. It was entirely predictable that this might happen in the UK. Cameron may have thought that after the recent Tory victory that this was unlikely to happen; I fear that he has badly miscalculated and it is now more likely than not that Brexit will be a reality as of the 23rd June.
I’m not sure that I like the word “embrace” in terms of Brexit, but the left needs even more urgently than ever to come up with a united coherent strategy. It is pretty clear that Brexit will be a disaster, which I hope will lead ultimately to a rejection of the far right. Sadly this will take years I think. I very much look forward to seeing your thoughts on this.
I hope to offer more over coming days
This does slightly conflict with a book deadline on 30 June though…
So you don’t think that the ‘disaster’ hasn’t already happened in the EU?
Mass emigration from Ireland not a disaster?
Three million out of health care , malnutrition in Greece not a disaster?
51% youth unemployment in Spain not already a disaster?
Huge levels of austerity induced emigration from Latvia.
The disaster is NOW.
I wholeheartedly agree and to do this the door to escape from neo-liberalism must be kicked open!
Sorry I disagree. My father (a prominent Irish Academic) was offered a prestigious Humboldt Scholarship to do his PhD in Germany. The timing wasn’t great – 1937 to 1939 (July) when he abandoned his PhD to come home. He had a great love of Germans but a hatred of the Nazis. I needn’t go into I hope how chilling a time it was. He saw friends disappearing; Hitler speaking at rallies and how he had an almost hypnotic compulsion on a certain type of person. He was convinced 10-20% of the population in almost any country are susceptible to this type of argument and used the term “Invincible Ignorance” to describe the mind set. He was also convinced such circumstances would arise again but almost certainly not in Germany. The 1935-1945 period was at least an order if not two orders of magnitude worse than now. That is what a disaster looks like. I do not expect things will be as bad as that but Brexit will be a major fillip to the far right and things could get very nasty. The British tends to be remarkably inward looking – the Americans even worse. Most Brits tend not to think of knock on effects.
Ireland I do know about. The 1950s were far worse than the 1998-2015 period and the 1980’s not great either. Of course the 1840s were a true disaster and the population of Ireland is still lower than in 1845. Ireland is actually doing pretty well now; much better than the UK.
I agree that the handling of the Greece is totally shameful and detest neo-liberalism.
I know many young talented and hard working Spaniards – some former students. It is a total disgrace.
We badly need some form of Neo-Keynesian economics and I applaud Richard for his efforts here.
I see the probability of things improving if we leave the EU as being vanishingly small both in narrow UK terms or wider EU and world terms. I am not always right and sincerely hope you are correct. Thanks also for your reply. These are very important issues. You need to keep on making the argument
Superb post. Superb. Sorry to look as though I’m gushing here – but this is superb.
I’m struck by the lyrics from a song by U2 called ‘Bullet the Blue Sky’ from the Joshua Tree album. It seems to be about American interference in South America (or anywhere else they have caused havoc – including the global USA triggered recession of 2008):
In the howling wind comes a stinging rain
See it driving nails
Into the souls on the tree of pain
From the firefly, a red orange glow
See the face of fear
Running scared in the valley below
Bullet the blue sky
Bullet the blue sky
Bullet the blue
Bullet the blue
In the locust wind comes a rattle and hum
Jacob wrestled the angel
And the angel was overcome
You plant a demon seed
You raise a flower of fire
See them burning crosses
See the flames higher and higher
Bullet the blue sky
Bullet the blue sky
Bullet the blue
Bullet the blue
This guy comes up to me
His face red like a rose in a thorn bush
Like all the colors of a royal flush
And he’s peeling off those dollar bills
Slapping them down
One hundred, two hundred
And I can see those fighter planes
And I can see those fighter planes
Across the mud huts where the children sleep
Through the alleys of a quiet city street
You take the staircase to the first floor
Turn the key and slowly unlock the door
As a man breathes into a saxophone
And through the walls you hear the city groan
Outside is America
Outside is America, America
Across the field you see the sky ripped open
See the rain through a gaping wound
Pounding on the women and children
Who run
Into the arms
Of America
If we exit we will need new friends or older ones will become more salient – hence I believe we will run into the arms of America and be more tightly bound to them than ever before because now their corporations need our people to make money out of because their economy back home could well be shrinking because those able to afford things there are shrinking too.
The failure of North American capitalism (illustrated by the significant reduction in the middle class) means that fewer people in the US can now afford healthcare and education whilst wages continue to drop.
Having hollowed out (or in the process of completing that hollowing out) their own economy, the Americans (whom I concede have always been here) need to expand into other markets because of declining growth in profits at home.
Boris, Gove and their ilk will simply become highly paid custodians of American interests in the UK.
So yes – the Americans have always been here – but this time it is different – driven by neo-lib blindness to the causes of the bottom line. And as the EU fragments – which it could – there will loads of sub-Pinochet type politicians in Europe happy to accept the American dollar one by one.
Plan A was corporate America’s idea to use the EU to get access to our markets and public services.
I bet you they have a Plan B for BREXIT and EU collapse – no problem.
I hope I’m wrong. But that is what I see.
Thank you
Well I suppose beyond the doom and gloom scenario there are some things we do know:
1. We will inherit on day one all of the same laws (EU and UK originated) that we have today. There will be an on-going democratic process (or at least as best we get under FPTP) to decide whether any of these laws change, much of which will be influenced by our eventual trading relationships with the EU and elsewhere.
2. A two year plus process of Brexit negotiations will take place at which all parties will be looking after their own best interests.
3. UK politics is in for mighty shake up, which may or may not lead to the Tory’s losing power before 2020, may lead to PR in recognition that UKIP is a major political force and FPTP is broken, and may lead to other constitutional changes within the UK which have been festering for decades.
4. There will most likely be a re-balancing of the UK economy, perhaps in favour of local manufacturing at the expense of imports, although the shape and timelines for that will be dependent on the Brexit negotiations.
5. There will be some losers and there will be some winners, just like there will be if we Remain but some of the winners and losers may be different.
6. It will not be business as usual for the political and economic elite. A message will have been sent by the British public that they do hold some of the power still.
‘Beyond doom and gloom’ Keith eh? You seem all too dismissive of the maybes and then come up with some rather tenuous ‘things that we know’ – apparently.
Your point 6 is at best hopeful, at worst naïve.
Those who create unnecessary diversions like the EU vote are usually best placed to make the most of them. It’s called market making.
This Government has not listened to complaints about the bedroom tax, fracking so why should it listen after BREXIT? And the BREXITERs would be from the same group of politicians who were for remaining (The Tory party). A reinvigorated march of the makers you say (point 4)? From Boris and Gove!!!? Really?
As for point 5 – rather stating the obvious?
I think it’s called adding some balance into the debate.
The future is always uncertain, and if the Tories think they have the UK government safely in the bag at the next election then they are as stupid as the Blairites in thinking more of the same would win the Labour leadership.
A strong and visionary democratic left wing political party should not fear the UK being free of EU restrictions on democracy and social policy.
Just my opinion of course, which I am always ready to be proved wrong by the UK public.
‘Balance’ Keith?
In my view your posts very diligently (some interesting reading you have done BTW) but rather rigidly stick to the leave POV.
You seem to have succumbed to the old ‘sovereignty lie’ – that somehow the UK’s woes are to do with the EU and not how the UK Government has chosen to use and NOT use its sovereignty with regard to the EU and even its own subjects. Our woes are to do with the Neo-lib EU you say. OK.
I hope that you realise that whatever the vote, we will still have a NEO-LIB Tory Government in after 23rd June. Not a neo-lib EU Keith, but a neo-lib Tory party. So we will still have a Government that will continue to abuse its sovereignty as it has done from 2010.
The only difference maybe is that Boris & Gove are actually less moderate than Cameron (I’m splitting hairs here because I think that they are all unfit for office to be honest). So we might end up with a worse government as a result.
A Tory NEO-LIB PLUS Keith think of that – wrapped of course in the Union Jack but ready to consort with ANY outside investor – the States, money launderers and anyone else who wishes to use us a tax haven at YOUR expense.
So, with all this emphasis on the EU there might be a chance that we throw the baby out with the bath water so to speak (sorry for the cliché) because although we may indeed be ‘free of the European Union’ (which could take some time) we will still have a local problem concerning neo-liberalism in our Parliament.
Judging by your posts which do mention neo-liberalism in the EU quite a lot
(to be fair mine mention the involvement of the US quite a lot) the question I have to ask given that we have neo-liberalism entrenched in our Government anyway is this:
What do you think you are actually doing by voting to leave?
Over to you Keith.
PSR – you seem to be turning into a good cheer leader for Project Fear!
I seem to remember that we live in a country that still has general elections every 5 years at least. Do you really think that the UK population will allow a far right government to attack them any further than this centre right government has already?
Even with the limitations of FPTP, Thatcher only managed to hold on 11 years and we’ve had 6 years of Tories again already so I really don’t think they have many more lives left before the public get fed up with their constant attacks on the social fabric of this nation.
I prefer to live in HOPE – it is a much more positive place than FEAR in my view!
Keith
I admit to being with PSR on this
It is not whether people will accept a more right wing government: we may get one without any election
That is a real potential outcome
More to come on this
Richard
It beggars belief, doesn’t it, this arrogance of the elite? They think they can fix anything with some treacly smarm, and if that fails, bribery and greased palms.
Cameron reminds me of a “Tom & Jerry” cartoon: you know, the one where Tom is by the seaside, running towards the water, to dive in. But he doesn’t realise his swimming costume strap is caught in the changing room door, and just as he gets to the water, it snaps him back with a jerk, slamming him into the changing room door.
It confirms my long-held view: Cameron, the cosseted sprig of the self-serving elite who assume they have the right to rule, irrespective of ability, is not, was not, and never will be fit to be Prime Minister.
“Do you really think that the UK population will allow a far right government to attack them any further than this centre right government has already?”
Centre-right? The Overton Window has really done a job on you, hasn’t it, Keith?
With any sort of historical perspective, “centre-right” would be where Tony Blair sat. He’d have been too right-wing to get a seat in Heath’s cabinet.
The neo-liberal dogma has moved everything significantly rightwards. Farage wouldn’t have to shift much to be the new Oswald Mosely.
We *have* a right-wing government. If we’re really unlucky, we’re about to get an outright fascist one.
Whatever the outcome of the UK vote on 23rd June, EU Policies must now change if it is to survive.
The current UK referendum has been unlike any political campaign I can remember. If normal arguments and trade-offs applied the debate would already be over, as all logic points to Britain staying within the EU. But the growing Brexit movement is driven by a much deeper and more powerful emotional response to the endless tide of immigration across Europe. Talk to Brexit supporters about likely recession, lost jobs, more austerity, or even break up of the United Kingdom itself, and the response (apart from obvious denial) is almost – if it happens it happens, and we will just deal with it.
I always used to wonder how rising nationalism could have led to two World wars in the 20th century, but you only have to sense the real fear and anger linked to current immigration policies, to understand this is a tide that may yet sweep all before it. And this is not just a UK issue. Voters across Europe are up in arms. Countries including France, Austria, Hungary and Poland have all been moving dangerously to the right. Even the most tolerant in Holland dare not risk any treaty change that would require a referendum. It is increasingly clear that lack of controls over immigration have now unleashed powerful forces not seen in Europe since the 1930s.
The principle of freedom of movement for all citizens should remain our ambition for the future. But whatever the outcome of the UK vote, European countries must now put in place effective mechanisms that will restrict migration for the foreseeable future. If we continue to cling to the principle of open borders without limit, then rising voter anger will soon grow strong enough to tear the entire European Project apart, and we will all be the losers.
It takes a brave person to say that on the left
My friend Colin Hines does
“The principle of freedom of movement for all citizens should remain our ambition for the future.”
That is complete nonsense in a world where state sponsored private financial capitalism controls the majority of economic activity. Just as much as the nonsense of allowing free movement of capital under the same scenario.
If you have the slightest understanding of the economic mechanics of capitalism and the political mechanics of the states that underpin it, you will know that allowing free movement of people across countries with very different economies and cultures will not create harmonious societies.
The result is inevitable capitalist arbitrage and constant migrations of peoples across continents in search of work and a better life. If you think labour arbitrage is a sound basis to organise society then you should be incredibly proud of this nightmare free market world that is being created in front of our very eyes.
And no one mentions the effect this has on the migrant nations. What we gain, they lose: their youngest and most skilled.
These are good points.
The use to which the markets have put immigration (to effectively reduce wages and conditions of established workers) is not on.
Only a courageous state would intervene in this and promote trade unions and decent pay and instead encourage competition (if we still had to have it) by the excellence of products and services not a race to the bottom competition over labour costs.
It seems that Eurozone countries (the latest being France) have all succumbed to this wage competition in someway.
To save the EU I would get rid of the Euro and cease the free movement of labour and re-boot from there.
“To save the EU I would get rid of the Euro and cease the free movement of labour and re-boot from there.”
But these are at the core foundations of the EU. Free movement of people, free movement of capital, a single currency and all without real democratic control.
The EU made it quite plain in their faux negotiations with Cameron that they do not believe there is any need or will to change any of this.
And you still want to Remain??
But ending the Euro and the free movement of labour is not, and never will be on offer from the EU!!!
You might want to reconsider your voting intentions.
I do not agree with you
I think you underestimate change
I have ben giving much thought to this myself. This has centred around two issues. Firstly, the need for an early General Election, given that the Government will not be able to claim legitimacy based on its 2015 Manifesto. The landscape will have changed and we will need an election where the key debate is around the answer to the question “Now What?”. No one has satisfactorily answered that question. No one on the Leave side has cast a vision worthy of the name.
The second is learning from the lesson of Churchill. There was the assumption that having won the war he would lead the shaping of the peace that followed. Those who will claim victory on 24th June might assume that there future leadership of the new era is a given. My hope is that this is misplaced, but we are missing one key ingredient to seeing my hope turn into a reality.
Of course, in 1945 there was a very clear alternative narrative. So for my thoughts to lead to anything other than neoliberal utopia, we desperately need that alternative narrative and we need it now.
Agreed
If there is a leave vote, the one thing that is certain is that the UK and EU establishment will not just sigh and say ‘Oh dear’. At the moment a lot of people are holding their breath and keeping their powder dry. If there is a leave vote, the gloves will come off and once the reality sinks in there could be a political earthquake which will consume the political establishment.
Not only that, but the people who have been disenfranchised, but who will be massively affected, might begin to flex their muscles. My sister-in-law has been here 25 years, but cannot vote in this referendum. In contrast, a New Zealander I know who has been here only three years and could, in theory, be gone in a couple of years can vote, not to mention all the Aussies and Kiwis here on a 2-year work/travel visa. There are so many EU citizens here and they won’t go quietly. 16-year olds will see the opportunities their older siblings have courtesy of the EU and if they are told ‘Sorry, you can’t have them as well’, there might be an upsurge of anger from them.
Those who are already here will of course be able to stay, just as the British who have moved to other EU countries. There could well be issues, though, about visits from friends and relations. My Polish friends are pretty nervous about this, since the whole extended family live here except one son who lives in Germany and is a German citizen.
A Brexit vote must surely mean a general election, as most MPs firmly for Remain.
That would lead to a split of the Conservative Party and a more likely victory for Labour.
It’s a possibility
At best
It’s not a possibility at all. The Tory party will purge itself of pro EU MPs – don’t forget there are many more than enough anti EU Tories to stand for every parliamentary seat.
And given that Labour has now come out as Remain and most Labour MPs are that way inclined in any general election fought in the wake of a Brexit vote they – or at the least the majority of them – will be defeated. The defeat of Labour will therefore be even worse than in 2015. And, not only that, as it’s MPs in Labour’s old heartlands that will fare worst (presumably to UKIP), it will mean that those that remain are primarily in London and pockets of urban “cosmopolitanism” elsewhere.
The only alternative to this scenario that I can see is if Labour are able to hold their hands up after the Brexit vote and say “Ok, we firmly believed that we should stay in the EU. However, now the electorate have voted otherwise this is our plan for a social democratic, post Brexit UK” and then be very focused and convincing on what that is. It goes without saying that that will have to comprehensively and convincingly cover immigration/migration.
Sadly, even if this happens the Brexit Tory press will be all over Labour, discrediting everything they say, so I don’t see a repositioned Labour message gaining much traction.
Sorry for being such a doom merchant.
Your pre-penultimate para is key
Ivan, this article from Frank Field is quite interesting of the dilemma within the Parliamentary Labour Party, which again seems at odds with a large percentage of the party members.
“The Labour party finds itself in the very dangerous position of having only 4% of its MPs supporting leave but, in one opinion poll, 44% of its members doing so.”
“Our voters are wiser on this big question than Labour’s leaders, and I hope if Brexit does occur on 23 June a “freedom flame” will start to burn across the continent and social democratic parties, trade unionists and social justice campaigners will rise up against the existing EU model. It’s a model that suits Goldman Sachs and big businesses who want cheap labour. It suits agricultural industries rather than the families shopping for groceries. It’s not a social Europe. It’s not a workers’ Europe. It’s not a modern Europe. It’s time to leave.”
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/14/eu-immigration-control-labour-supporters-voters-party
Good article, Keith. I hadn’t spotted it. Mind you, I’d take any figures that come out of Migration Watch with a pinch of salt. No doubt in the months following the Brexit vote we’ll have much to talk about courtesy of Richard’s blog, including whether that “freedom flame” gets lit.
@Keith: That’s Labour supporters, not members. I’m pretty sure that members are mainly for ‘Remain’.
Completely agree with you Richard. Now that ‘The Sun’ has apparently come out in favour of Brexit it looks like that’s the way it will go. Belatedly, here’s an article which you may find interesting (if you’ve not already seen it) – http://www.weareplanc.org/blog/damned-if-you-leave-damned-if-you-remain-the-europe-referendum-or-what-to-do-in-the-absence-of-a-left-option. Not much more to say, really. I need a strong caffein shot!
Me too
“It is an expression of deep anger; at being left behind economically; of having the wealth divide rubbed in faces; of being left feeling powerless; of having little hope of changing anything.”
You are perfectly correct. I’ve sensed this for some time. How potent it will be in terms of votes cast for leaving the EU is the only question that remains. But there is no boubt it has momentum. And the Labour party, despite the obvious misgivings of Corbyn and McDonnell, has gotten itself on the wrong side of this surge – and is positioning itself (and being encouraged to do so) to be in the vanguard of what looks increasingly likely to be a vain attempt to repel this surge. Labour now faces the prospect of an eventual annihilation in its strongholds in England that it has already experienced in Scotland.
It was inevitable that UKIP pulling across traditional Tory voters and then traditional Labour voters to give it almost 4 million votes in last year’s general election would shake up the political landscape. Cameron’s impetuous attempt to draw UKIP’s sting and to solve a major problem in his own party has brought us to this pass.
Even if there is a narrow victory for remain this realignment of the political landscape will continue. The main concern is that none of the mainstream parties are in a position to represent and channel constructively the justifiable disgust and anger of the 50% or so of voters who will vote to leave the EU – even is the EU is not to blame for what is angering them.
That is a real worry
The right wing are so good at getting people to blame others for what they are responsible. But I hope that campaigning by playing on fears, and negative stereotypes and implicit racism will re-bound on them at some point-as it did with Joe McCarthy.
I noted that a number of commentors on your previous blog suggested various outcomes from a Brexit vote, Richard, so there’s some good material to go on there. And you may remember that I long ago said I believed Brexit would be the outcome and now I’m certain (sadly).
But one outcome that we can be certain of is that Cameron and Osborne will have to go, whether that happens in an orderly fashion over a short period of time, or more swiftly in a Tory equivalent of the night of the long knives. However that occurs we can be certain that the Brexitiers will be drunk on their success and as a result do what a lot of drunkards do – stupid, shortsighted, and frequently damaging, things. So, once they take control of government we can expect a raft of extremely right wing policy declarations. The only real question will then be whether these can steered through parliament given the waffer thin – and probably after the Brexit vote – non existent, Tory majority. Quite likely they can’t, which will lead I’m sure to the new PM and government constantly claiming that the referendum result has given them a mandate for all that they wish to do.
Leaving aside for now whether the current investigations into electoral fraud lead to byelections, it is surely likely that when it becomes evident that the Brexit government cannot get its policies through parliament it will be tempted to call a snap general election. It will do so on the basis that if it could win the referendum then it can use that momentum to win an election where it effectively removes from the slate (or they remove themselves) current Tory MPs who are pro EU, such as Ken Clarke. And where it can also use the overwhelming anti EU sentiment in working class areas to also defeat Labour MPs – presumably by entering into a pact with UKIP to fight seats in those areas. In short, the election campaign would be run on a simple ticket of “You voted for the UK to leave the EU and now your MP is blocking your wishes so get rid of them too.”
Anyway, I can think of much more but I’d better get on with real work. I look forward to your suggestions over the coming days.
I will try to offer them
I have to keep reminding myself there is a book to write as well
I have no doubt that Cameron will resign if it’s Brexit. He’s had his fun at the top and now it’s becoming a bit of a bore/chore. Also he wants to send his kids to private schools and it will be much better done under the radar.
There is no longer the possibility for a government to “call a snap general election”.
They’d have to repeal the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act first – and if they can’t get that through Parliament, they’d not get a 2/3 Dissolution vote either. The other option is losing a confidence vote.
A lot of people seem to believe that a change of Prime Minister inevitably leads to a GE – were they not paying attention when Brown took over from Blair, or Major from Thatcher?
I am strongly in favour of Remain.
The question I would like to float is, would you rather see a 51:49 Remain vote, or a Brexit win?
My fear is that a slight remain win will see a wave of anti-immigrant, extreme right wing backlash – a similar phenomena, although a fundamentally different perspective, to the voting after the Scottish referendum. There the losing side obtained a wave of populist support – many on this site will suggest its because of a radical left wing agenda. I believe that in part at least, it was people reacting to what in their heart they wanted, though their head said something different.
With a Brexit win, we will at least know what we are dealing with – and it may be that we do end up with a more left wing UK government than we do at present. How they deal with the mess that is left, may be a more difficult question.
This is an issue I plan to get to
If Brexit wins, it won’t be a Left government we get. It’ll be a hard Right, US Republican Government, complete with Bojo the Clown, our very own Trump.
It means the end of the welfare state of 1945, or what little remains of it.
First casualties will be the BBC and NHS.
The tories will never vote for Johnson as leader. They have enough sense to realise that his ‘charm’ will quickly fade when he is exposed to the light. My money’s on May or David Davies, if he stands again, as he is a brexiter.
As I’ve said before there could be a ‘positive’ out of a Brexit in the sense that the incompetence and vacuity of the Gove/Johnson armpit farting contest might be revealed in full and as things get worse there could be a real chance of a Left resugence. With Remain, I suspect the elites with think ‘ah well…game on for a few more years.’
This is more of a dialectical assessment and I could be very wrong which is why I’m abstaining.
would you rather see a 51:49 Remain vote, or a Brexit win?
I’ll take the win any day of the week. Remember that in 1995 Quebec voted on separation from Canada, an issue that had been brewing for at least as long as Brexit. The vote went narrowly in favour of staying in, and the PQ deflated like a pricked balloon.
Good post, Richard.
The only part I would take issue with is the suggestion that life will just trundle on as before with a Remain vote. I do understand that what you probably meant is that Brexit has the potential to be much more tumultuous of the two options if it comes to pass. That said, there are a lot of things going on that mean that things are unlikely to ‘go quiet’ either way, especially the financial state of UK/EU/the world.
As I say, though, good piece generally.
You may, on reflection, be right
I am thinking of doing a 51:49 Remain piece
I think it’ll be 51/49 either way, Quebec 2 style.
I have a very bad feeling that there are a large number of people who are currently stating they are unsure or even that they favour remain who are actually Brexit sympathisers but refrain from saying so – for whatever reason. (In similar vein to those who wouldn’t admit they were going to vote Tory before the last election). So I’m afraid my scenario is 54-57 in favour of leave, perhaps even 60 if the Tory press hammer Remain from now until next Thursday.
My hope is for a 51:49 Remain decision.
The basis for this is that we will have avoided the dreadful economic implications of leaving but also that we will see the rats in a sack infighting that will destroy the Tories allowing a change for a rational hopeful alternative to appear.
‘It does cross political divides, to some degree.’
What political divides, Richard -isn’t the problem that the world has become a one party state and politics a farcical side show hiding the real forces at work. There is no political divide in the UK, there is one economic ideology with a Left that hasn’t even started the painful process of transition yet, so there is Corbyn and McDonnel with a bunch of largely useless M.P.s behind them.
Isn’t that the point I am making?
Yes your absolutely spot on Richard I’ve voted out, Sorry. I hope it’s the catalyst for change this country badly needs.
yes, but is there anything in all this that can relate to Labour working class people concerns http://order-order.com/2016/06/14/stoke-on-trent-labour-supporters-back-leave/ DIRECTLY ? You know, when they whisper the word “immigration” in a frightened kind of way
Excuse the sycophancy here Richard, but you really are a master at stimulating online discussions (particularly when you stray off piste from tax!). The contributions from (most of) your readers whether for or against an issue are so thought provoking and in the main given by each openly to enhance the debate rather than to score points. Its refreshing, educational and stimulating. Thank you.
This discussion, and your thought piece on 10th: http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/06/10/the-conservatives-may-not-be-able-to-govern-any-more-but-that-was-never-the-aim/ are two sides of the same coin and I have only just joined up the dots in between. Under both, the public are pure collateral damage and vote fodder in others pursuit of self interest. The public are being played for fools. And the short termism is shocking. There is no recognition at all that these politicians playing their games (the tories for power and the ‘outers’ for ‘sovereignty’) have any cognisance of the implications on ordinary people’s every lives and wellbeing in economic, sociological and community cohesive terms.
This website http://ukandeu.ac.uk/ hosted by Kings College London has some interesting analysis and opinion which is very complimentary to your own, mostly academics putting forward facts and truths (in a readable way) which is searchable by topic. Some of the potential economic implications for average and below average UK households are chilling. Coupled with the political implications of a brexit vote with Farage and Bojo at the helm – utterly dystopian.
I remain majorly concerned that whatever the result, we do not have the political and economic titans we need to steer the UK through the coming few years ‘for the people. by the people and with the people’. Lightweights with self interest on all sides appears to be the only choice on the menu with the dishes ranging between unpalatable and less unpalatable. Depressing.
Thanks
And for the KCL link
‘The public are being played for fools. And the short termism is shocking. ‘
Absolutely spot on.
As for the dystopia -we’ve already got it, it will just be more of the same with Gove and Johson bullshiting/arm-pit farting/mouth-farting while their rentier money keeps doubling for doing Jack Shit. These people will be revealed for who they are if they get want they want -the utter incarnation of shystery and self-interest combined with appalling levels of bloated self-esteem verging on the sociopathic. Even the British Public , submerged under geological layers of dumbed-downess will cotton on to these fraudsters soon -or will it be a new low (whilst thinking the present low the lowest it can get)? I can’t, I just can’t believe the British narcolepsy is so bad that if we do have these crass oiks holding sway the public will, yet again, lie down in front of the steam roller? (Assumes Edvard Much posture followed bu foetal position with thumb in mouth).
My spell check is doing all sorts of things with out me willing it – even my spellcheck is becoming anti democratic! Edvard Munch!
Quite right Richard. The break up of the European Union would be a disaster and would only benefit the neo-liberals. What we need is a Courageous State, and the EU is our best hope of achieving it.
If the EU weren’t under the control of technocrats then I would agree with you.
If you want to get rid of Neo liberalism then you must break a few eggs first…..
You won’t do this and get the paradigm shift the world so desperately needs for the survival of humankind unless you start this process now.
This is not, in my view, the paradigm shift we need
But I will deal with it if it happens
Yes-but we might have to deal with things getting worse first.
Richard, you say a Brexit vote would rock the state to its core. Have you suddenly become Cameron’s spin doctor?
Not at all
That is true, whichever side of this debate you’re on
Let’s keep our feet firmly on the ground here and deal with realities
Even a narrow Remain, which is the best he could hope for now, would release the type of backlash that has swept the SNP to their current position in Scotland.
You have the cart before the horse. The reason that the Scots got as close as they did to winning their referendum, and swept the board in the General Election, was that they put the work in for at least a year before, and not just in the political arena, but the economic and cultural ones too. They made all the running. Cameron has made none of the running, and nor has Corbyn – and now they are going to face the backlash.
Which is why there will be a backlash….
A key question in the event of a Leave vote (and this may have been asked above – I’m on holiday this week and thr thread is hard to read on a phone, sorry): what if the Leave side can’t secure a parliamentary majority for primary legislation to quit the EU? There isn’t a majority for Brexit in the current House of Commons, I don’t think. But if Johnson (or whoever) tried to get a dissolution (needs 2/3rds majority under Fixed Term Parilament Act 2011), would he be able to get one? And would the ensuing election produce a majority for Brexit? If not, the referendum result might remain unimplemented…
An issue I will blog on Howard
Aren’t some of the stats misleading though. I saw one that said 53% for leave and 47% for remain. Reading the full article they hadn’t included the “don’t knows” and, I suspect, it will be them that decide.