What’s the first economic crisis post May 2015 hoping to be?

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I had a fascinating conversation last night. The theme was what will be the first crisis to hit the post May 2015 government?

The hypothesis was that since economic crises broadly happen once every seven to nine years another one must be due soon, and Osborne's luck suggests it will be just after, rather than just before, the next election.

Is it an interest rate rise tipping hundreds of thousands in the UK into bankruptcy and precipitating a house price crash?

Or will the inevitable Chinese banking crisis come first?

The obvious fact that fracking as a solution to the energy crisis is a complete myth will break sometime, and with it energy prices will rise, whilst energy companies may collapse into crisis as their investment strategies fail.

Maybe it's none of them: another banking crisis could deliver the blow and with no real reform post 2008 that has to be on the cards. With that tax revenues will collapse, again.

And it could, of course, be the Balkans.

Or could disputes over the newly independent Scotland create a sterling crisis?

All of these are possible. The one thing that seems very unlikely is that whatever that government is it will be able to ride its luck for long.

It was a good job the company at the table was invigorating. The outlook wasn't.

What you can be sure of is that the need for a Green New Deal will be stronger than ever.