Starting themes:
- No risk
- Investment in health and education.
Has 'no risk' replaced prudence?
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Forecasts 3% growth - which sounds hard to believe. Then notes it will be 2-2.5% next year. More likely. But then hopes for a rise in 2009. Why is that? When is the election?
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Will make a statement on Northern Rock later this week.
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The 'golden rules' are intact. It sounds so odd to hear somehow other than Brown reading out the data.
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Net borrowing is forecast to fall by 2012. He won't be in the job by then.
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£30 billion of savings have been identified - as I forecast. Asset sales will also release cash.
Expect more tax inspectors to be made redundant.
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Spending will increase from £345 billion now to £397 billion in 2010. That's above inflation as far as I can work out, quickly. At least 3%.
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£400 million extra for defence this year. Mainly for homes for the arms forces.
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It sounds like heavy support for rail and transport
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Tax - competitive, simple and fair.
Three reviews for tax simplification.
Separate payroll will go for some businesses.
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Capital gains - reforms for consistency and competitive. Code of Conduct for Private Equity will be set up next month.
CGT loopholes will be closed. Private equity will be closed.
18% CGT rate from April next year. Flat rate. He completely misses the point. This remains disastrously unfair.
Income shifting will be tackled.
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National Insurance exemptions will be hit.
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On those not paying a fair share - will close loop holes. Non doms pay£4 billion. Change must be fair and affordable.
The £25,000 Tory flat rate will not work. 15,000 would pay. Too low I think.
Repeats the £650 million number - which is wrong. And he says the £25,000 charge would be a disincentive for people to come - which is just wrong.
Will now consult for domicile. A charge after 7 years will be made and a higher rate after 10 years. And will look at remittance rules.
These will raise £650 million. This is of course what he says the Tories would have raised.
He has bottled the issue. He has failed the children of UK who live in poverty.
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Aircraft will be in EU carbon trading scheme. And will now tax flights.
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Environmental transformation fund of more than £1 billion to invest in green technology.
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Aid will increase from £5 billion to £9 billion by 2010. But it must be well spent. I am delighted. But spend some on making sure developing countries can collect their own tax.
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Child poverty - wants to help people into work to tackle this. Incapacity benefit is falling - 100,000 off the list. Increasing child tax credit and other benefits.
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Final points:
a) Inheritance Tax - 100% spouse relief buy no transferability - so will make an allowance of £600,000 by combination of allowances. A gimmick but will massively cut planning.
b) Backdates this for widows and widowers.
c) 97% homes out of Inheritance Tax
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Has £2 billion to spend. Will not put it into the Tories Inheritance Tax limit - but will put money into health and education.
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Education spend will be higher than originally planned - the money will go into personalised support.
NHS will also see a spend increase - 20 new hospitals - 140 GP walk in centres and 100 new GP practices.
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He has virtually adopted the Conservative position on non-doms –
“• firstly, from April 2008 resident non-domiciles who have been in the UK for
longer than seven out of the past ten years will only be able to access the
remittance basis of taxation on payment of an annual charge of £30,000,
unless their unremitted foreign income or gains are less than £1,000;
• secondly, people who use the remittance basis of taxation will, from April
2008, no longer be entitled to income tax personal allowances.”
It will be interesting to see if this proves to be illegal under EU rules as you claim.