There is much discussion going on about a possible merger of income tax and national insurance in the UK. This follows a report from the Office for Tax Simplification suggesting this and a belief that such a merger fits George Osborne’s simplification agenda (or “don’t make it complicated as George won’t understand it” agenda as it might be called in the civil service).

It’s important to get facts right on this. First, the principles underlying these taxes remain quite different despite all that is said: national insurance does, effectively, fund old age pensions. And the reality is that right now entitlement is dependent upon contributions – meaning that the claim that national insurance is just taxation is just a false statement by those who have either a) been in work all their lives or b) can safely ignore their entitlement to a state pension as they have so much cash it will be an irrelevant part of their income in old age. That’s a tiny minority largely represented by those from big firms of accountants who talk about this issue. For the rest it’s a much bigger deal.

And even then much of the discussion ignores some really important aspects of the debate, which are however of significance to millions.

It’s entirely true for a person of working age who is in employment and who has earnings of less than about £43,000 a year tax and national insurance look pretty much like the same thing and add up to total tax deductions on a payslip.

But for pensioners introducing combined income tax and national insurance would be a massive blow: many do pay tax but none pay national insurance. Combine the two and effective tax rates on pensioners rise considerably. Is that the new deal Osborne wants to offer?

There are also several pillion self employed people in the UK (and yes, I’m one of them). We pay less NI – because we get many fewer benefits if out of work. What’s the deal going to be here? Are benefits to be made available if the self employed pay pro rata? And how could that be policed? There’s been good reason for the reduced benefits – because the self employed can easily manipulate their income. But why deny them benefit if they pay full tax?

And what happens to employer’s NIC? Does it simply become a payroll tax? And what then for the self employed? And what for the varieties of reduced NIC for employers making pension contributions? And many aspects of NIC and employee benefits in kind are, of course employer contributions and so would, presumably survive in any payroll tax?

What too for the fact that this will very obviously look like a tax increase for those on lower pay but not those on higher pay – because NIC bar 2% (from 6 April) those paying higher rate tax do not pay NIC. So the differentials are suddenly eroded. Is that right?

These questions are all very real. They imply this to me:

a) If there is to be a payroll tax on employers if NIC is merged with income tax there will be almost no tax simplification for employers at all – they will still be calculating two taxes on payrolls. So this is a waste of time.

b) Aligning benefit in kind rules for employers would be useful – but let’s not deny they’ll still be complex – because employers will abuse anything that is simple. Sad , but true, with the biggest abuse being by the biggest companies. So we’re still going to live with complexity.

c) In that case simplification hopes go straight out of the window.

d) Making the significant self employed community pay more is something a Tory government is not likely to do – so complex rules will be inevitable. Or alternatively opportunities for abuse will be high.

e) The idea of 32% withholding rates is interesting – but how likely is it?

f) Massively generous allowances for pensioners may not be welcome – some pensioners can, after all, afford to ay ax – but this is political nightmare area;

g) The big abuse merger would stop is the small business abuse of limited companies to pay dividends to save NIC. That’s the big anti-avoidance measure that has proved elusive so far – and given that 500,000 companies disappear a year - many of them probably abusing this on the way – this is obviously important and has to be tackled.

So the question arises that if two taxes cannot be avoided – and that has to be the case – then why bother to merge income tax and national insurance?

Why not simply do what I have often suggested, which is to reintroduce an investment income surcharge? If a 15% extra tax were charged on all investment income a person had in a year over £5,000, with an exemption for £25,000 in the case of pensioners, the abuse of small limited companies would stop, serious revenue would be raised and the absurdity of investment income carrying a lower tax rate than income from work would end. Add it to capital gains too and then offshoring and other abuses would end as a well – because disguising income as gains would be pointless and this tax would be charged on the taxpayer not at source – so offshoring would not work in most cases.

That makes an investment income surcharge a simple, neat and effective solution which would apply to relatively few people but it would stop abuse and resolve the unfairness in the system whilst helping pay for the deficit – solely by charge on those most able to afford to pay.

And if George does not go for it – shouldn’t Ed?

 

The Treasury Committee of the House of Commons has published its report on the principles of tax policy.

It;s horribly predictable. But that’s what happens when you have evidence from a wide range of organisations such as Christian Aid, the RSPB, Child Poverty Action Group and even the TUC, but choose to only call for evidence from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Oxford University, PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Chartered Institute of Taxation.

The committee concluded that tax policy should:

  • be fair. The Committee accepts that not all commentators will agree on the detail of what constitutes a fair tax, but a tax system which is considered to be fundamentally unfair will ultimately fail to command consent
  • support growth and encourage competition
  • provide certainty. In virtually all circumstances the application of the tax rules should be certain. It should not normally be necessary for anyone to resort to the courts in order to resolve how the rules operate in relation to his or her tax affairs
  • provide stability. Changes to the underlying rules should be kept to a minimum and policy shocks should both be avoided. There should be a justifiable economic and/or social basis for any change to the tax rules and this justification should be made public and the underlying policy made clear
  • the Committee also considers that it is important that a person’s tax liability should be easy to calculate and straightforward and cheap to collect. To this end, tax policy should be practicable
  • the tax system as a whole must be coherent. New provisions should complement the existing tax system, not conflict with it

But these findings are inherently inconsistent.

They refused to say what fair means – arguing it’s down to political judgement. But in their very next step they argue for growth and competition. And yet we knbow that growth has not helped most people in this country for thirty years. It has simply increased the gap between the rich and the rest. Competition is also inherently biased – stacking all the cards in favour of those with the deepest pockets and against those who can’t even get into the game. What is fair about that?

And they’ve bought the line on certainty. I admit one of the wisest comments I’ve heard on this issue was made at a meeting I attended recently when a person said:

I’m not sure about certainty

Of course that raised a laugh. But they were saying something much more profound. Certainty removes doubt and yet (applying this to tax law) that is simply not possible – except by excepting things from tax. When law is made up of words and words have uncertain meaning (as all just about do, at least in combination) uncertainty is inevitable. So long as there is reasonable direction given as to meaning, and reasonable access to law to appeal injustice and so long as there is a strong, independent and well resourced civili service then there is scope within tax law to deal with uncertainty – which usually affects only those who wish to push the parameters of law into the grey areas of tax avoidance. So once again – fairness was not offered here either – this is a statement to favour the few who wish to not pay tax ove the many who always will.

As for stability – isn’t this about preserving the privilege in the system as it stands where the poorest pay most as a part of their income and where the richest pay least? And isn’t this about keeping the non-com rule? And the new owes tax rates of all for large companies – when everyone less pays more? Or keeping VAT high? Is that what stability means? In that case where does the opportunity for progression towards fairness arise?

A agree with items five but this is procedure, not policy.

Six reverts to form – let’s keep the status quo.

It’s a very odd basis for setting out a strategy for tax policy. And the one thing I can guarantee is the outcome will not be fair. But no doubt a Tory dominated committee wanted that to be the case.

 

I was rung by numerous organisations yesterday wanting to ask my opinion on non-domiciled and taxation. The story reappeared in the press at the weekend with the suggestion being made that George Osborne is considering reducing the seven year period which can elapse before a non-domiciled person has to pay a levy make use of this status to reduce their tax liability in the UK.

I pointed out that the real issue is not the problem of the domicile rule, however significant that is. The real problem is the fact that the UK does not, at present, have an effective residence rule, and many people cannot be quite sure whether they have become resident, or non-resident in the UK as a result of legal ambiguities that now exist as a result of conflicting court decisions. This is a much bigger problem, not least because it has serious impact upon those coming to the UK to work, and leaving to work elsewhere.

There is a solution to this problem. It can be found here, and I recommend it.

Disclosure: I advise the TUC on tax issues.

 

As the first of a series of new videos on tax and related issues I offer the following, on the five reasons to tax. Feedback would be welcome.

Financial support for this work from the Task Force on Financial Integrity and Economic Development and Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust is gratefully acknowledged.

 

I wrote the following last July, but it seems apposite to repost it now:

The UK government has proposed increasing the standard rate of Value Added Tax (VAT) from 17.5% to 20% from 4 January 2011.

They are not alone in proposing increases in VAT or equivalent taxes to address deficits in government budgets. The States of Jersey currently has a proposal to do much the same thing – increasing their rate of Goods and Services Tax (which is a VAT in all but name) from 3% to 5%. These rises will be contagious.

In this case though there is a curious link between the two proposals. A paper issued by the House of Commons library on this issue and commentary in Jersey on the same issue both rely on work by the Institute for Fiscal Studies to support their claim that any increase in VAT is only mildly regressive at most, or might actually be progressive – as the IFS have claimed.

A new Tax Briefing from Tax Research UK examines that Institute for Fiscal Studies claim and finds it is a statement of political dogma, but not of fact.

As the Tax Research briefing argues, a regressive tax is almost universally agreed to be one where the proportion of an individual’s income expended on that tax falls as they progress up the income scale. VAT is a regressive tax. This is shown, quite dramatically, in the graph below which is based on UK official data :

By chance the VAT and total direct tax burdens on the bottom 20% of households ranked by their income is the same. Direct taxes then rise steadily as a proportion of income as incomes rise and both VAT and all indirect taxes combined do the exact opposite, falling as a proportion of income as income rises. So marked is the trend that the overall progressive effect of income tax is not enough to counter the fact that the poorest households suffer such a high rate of overall indirect tax that they end up with the highest average tax rates in the economy as a whole.

The message from this data is unambiguous: the poorest 20% of households in the UK have both the highest overall tax burden of any quintile and the highest VAT burden. That VAT burden at 12.1% of their income is more than double that paid by the top quintile, where the VAT burden is 5.9% of income. VAT is, therefore, regressive.

The IFS dispute this. They produce the following data in evidence:

They say of this:

It shows that the percentage of net income paid as VAT varies relatively little across most of the income distribution, with the biggest exception being that the bottom decile group does pay a higher fraction of its net income on VAT than do other income groups.

And they then use this claim to justify the fact that in their opinion VAT paid is not regressive with regard to income.

The slight problem for them is that this overlooks the very obvious fact that it is. Replotting their data and excluding the bottom decile as they would like the following graph can be drawn:

The linear regression shows a clear downward trend that makes very clear VAT is regressive.

Surprisingly the IFS ignore this obvious fact and go on to claim:

However, looking at a snapshot of the patterns of spending, VAT paid and income in the population at any given moment is misleading, because incomes are volatile and spending can be smoothed through borrowing and saving. Consider a student or a retiree: their current income is likely to be quite low but their lifetime earnings could be relatively high. The student may borrow to fund spending, whilst the retiree may be running down savings. Similarly, many people in the lowest income decile will be temporarily not in paid work and able to maintain relatively high spending in the short period they are out of the labour market. Because their spending is higher than their current income, these people will be paying a high fraction of their current income in VAT. Similarly, those with high current incomes tend to have high saving, and so appear to escape the tax, but they will face it when they come to spend the accumulated savings. Because of this ‚Äòconsumption smoothing’, expenditure is probably a better measure of living standards (and households’ perceptions of the level of spending they can sustain).

And they then claim that comparing VAT with spending shows that VAT is progressive:

However, this requires that a number of further conditions hold. First, the poor must have savings, and as I show, they don’t. Second, they must have access to borrowing, and as I show, they don’t (except for doorstep lenders). Third, the consumption patterns of the rich must be the same as the poor, and they’re not. In fact, the consumption patterns of the rich (for school frees, private health, leisure travel, second homes and financial services products) are all VAT free, unlike the consumption patterns of the poorest. In addition, the IFS has to abuse all known notions of measure for progressivity to reach this conclusion.

The result is that far from the IFS claim being justified, it is vey obviously wrong, and very poor quality research. As a matter of fact VAT is regressive.

The IFS claim is, however, consistent with persistent IFS recommendations that VAT be increased (to replace corporation tax, for example, and on food and children’s clothing to pay for “desirable tax reductions”) all of which, together with their recommendations that Inheritance Tax be abolished and tax on interest income be abolished suggest a systematic bias towards making recommendations that favour redistribution of taxes from those who work for a living or who are the poorest in our country towards those with wealth and who enjoy income from capital.

None of which makes it easy to see how the IFS can sustain the claim that it:

maintain a rigorous, scientific approach to research, while offering scope for timely, independent, well-informed contributions to public debate.

The full paper is available here.


http://www.ifs.org.uk/centres/esrcIndex


It is, for example, defined as such in the Oxford Dictionary of Economics.

[ii] http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_social/Taxes-Benefits-2007-2008/Taxes_benefits_0708.pdf


http://www.parliament.uk/briefingpapers/commons/lib/research/briefings/snbt-05620.pdf

http://www.gov.je/SiteCollectionDocuments/Tax%20and%20your%20money/ID%20FSR%20GREEN%20PAPER%2020100621%20MM.pdf

http://www.ifs.org.uk/budgets/gb2009/09chap10.pdf

 

I’ve just been interviewed by The Times on the VAT increase to 20%, happening tonight. They seemed keen to know of my views.

Let’s be clear, the number one problem with this change is it is regressive. I know the Institute for Fiscal Studies say VAT is not regressive – but they only get to that absurd position by arguing that regressiveness is assessed against spending and not income and by saying regressiveness should be measured over a lifetime – a claim only neoliberal economists could make. By all proper measures of regressiveness VAT is regressive and always will be. So this is a tax change that hits the poorest and middle income earners hardest in our society, and that’s the wrong policy decision when just about every other change the ConDems have announced has exactly the same impact.

Second, this increase will encourage VAT planning. Abuse through the Channel Islands will increase, for example. This imposes a real cost on the UK economy.

Third, tax evasion will increase. HMRC’s own data suggests VAT has an error rate of around 13% inherent in it – twice the rate they say income tax and NIC suffers. This is a tax based on their own data prone to abuse. In that case why increase it when tax evasion is already an issue?

But most of all the big issue is the economic one – and that is the last thing our economy needs now is money sucked out of it when what is really needed is a boost to make sure that more jobs are created so more people are at work and paying tax to ensure that the government can pay its way. This measure has the exact opposite effect. It takes money out of the economy and drains demand from it, meaning that it is bound to be recessionary.

As a policy measure this one is a disaster in the making – and one every household will see as prices go up. If compounded by an interest rate rise because the Bank of England then thinks it has to tackle the resulting inflation it will be even worse.

Right now it is hard to imagine any more misguided tax policy. But George Osborne has delivered it, all the same. Yet another sign of a lack of economic competence I am afraid.

 

The following article by me appears today on the ippr New Era Economics blog, but as it’s as relevant here I cross post it here, in slightly fuller form.

“Tax theory and practice, like so much else in current economic thinking, is narrowly constrained within a restricted set of parameters defined by the assumptions of neo-liberal economics. The Mirrlees Review – subtitled ‘Reforming the tax system for the 21st century’ – just published by the Institute for Fiscal Studies is an excellent example of this. After undertaking a review of contemporary tax practices around the world it then recommends policies that are entirely in keeping with the prescriptions of the Washington Consensus.

Hence, indirect tax is favoured over direct tax, tax simplification is offered as mere mantra, and corporation tax is only accepted with the very greatest of reluctance as a matter of pragmatism. Capital in general, and savings in particular, is afforded special treatment because, it is assumed, capital is mobile and so must be subject to special tax considerations to allow for the fact that it might otherwise flee at will. The result is not a tax system for the 21st century but one that looks suspiciously like a regime that supports an economy that failed so spectacularly in September 2008. Continue reading »

 

Andrew Gilligan asks the questions.

And gets no answers.

Hat tip: TJN

 

The Treasury select committee has announced:

TREASURY COMMITTEE LAUNCHES INQUIRY INTO THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF TAX POLICY

In the last month, the OECD in Paris and the IFS in London have each published important reports into the fundamentals of tax policy.

The OECD reports that the tax system should distort economic incentives as little as possible and that "corporate taxes are the most harmful type of tax for economic growth, followed by personal income taxes and then consumption taxes, with recurrent taxes on immovable property being the least harmful tax."

The Mirrlees Review, published by the IFS, argues that the tax system should be considered as a whole with the benefit system, seek neutrality, and achieve progressivity as efficiently as possible.

The Office of Tax Simplification has revealed that there are over 1,000 reliefs in the UK tax system.

The Treasury Committee has decided to launch its own inquiry into the principles which should underpin the tax system, and invites written evidence on the following points:

* What are the key principles which should underlie tax policy? * How can tax policy best support growth?
* To what extent should the tax system be structured to support other specific policy goals? * How much account should be taken of the ease and efficiency with which a particular tax can be imposed and collected? * Are there aspects of the current tax system which are particularly distorting?

I feel a report coming on. The deadline is 12 noon on Friday 14 January 2011. That looks like Christmas is cancelled…..