As the Guardian noted today, there appears to be an enormous price attached to the measures needed to stabilise the Eurozone to meet the demands of bankers:

Last week, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, announced that they would push for the creation of a Eurozone economic council to police the austerity measures of governments, to be headed by Herman Van Rompuy, the EU president.

Separately, Germany’s economy minister, Philipp Rösler, has proposed the creation of a new, unelected EU institution, a “stability council” that would impose automatic sanctions on countries that do not adhere to rigid budget discipline and pro-business labour policies.

And the head of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, has called for a European finance ministry, charged with dictating to countries their spending policies.

None of those institutions is any way democratic. That is profoundly worrying.

As worrying is the fact that, as I noted last week, these undemocratic moves are associated with demands that all EU countries adopt legislation that outlaws Keynesian economic policies despite these being the only currently available mechanism with any hope at all of dealing with Europe’s economic crisis.

And as is now very obvious from the above reports, these same anti-democratic moves have the clear intent of  ensure that yet more wealth moves from labour to capital even though the excess return to capital – which is now, according to Nouriel Roubini yielding higher real rates of return than at any time since the 1920s – is clearly one of the major causes of the current crisis as most people now simply cannot afford to meet their perceived needs so far have their real wages fallen and so high have their debt servicing obligations become.

The net result of all this is that the imposition of these budgetary controls across the EU (The UK included – since it is covered by these measures) will simply exacerbate control of the economy by bankers by proxy in their own sole interest and entirely without democratic control.

I am profoundly worried by this. I am by principle a European. I am a citizen of two EU member states. My family and my wife’s family came to this country as economic migrants. I believe free movement of people is important. And I know all too well that the risk of Europe falling apart is intensely dangerous to us all and the EU has helped mitigate this risk, to date. The history of disputes being resolved through warfare on this continent is too recent and too strong to be risked again.

And yet all that being said there is also an obligation on all democrats to object to these moves in the strongest possible terms.

We have seen the consequences of economic management by bankers – and it is disastrous.

We know that neoliberalism does not work – and that it is already in its death throes; throes which could all too easily engulf us if these EU measures were to be adopted.

And we already know that the potential for social chaos that cuts create is enormous and yet these moves would be designed to deliver more and more cuts with ever greater risk to social cohesion.

There was already, before reading this, much to make me think that we live in dangerous times. My confidence in democracy has however been the one thing that has afforded me comfort in the face of those risks – inadequate as I know democracy can also be. But if we now abandon democracy in Europe – as these moves do in my opinion demand – then we move towards totalitarianism in the hands of bankers faster than it is almost possible to imagine.

Give me the choice of this unelected form of government by central bankers in Europe and quitting Europe I know where I stand in an instant – I would have no doubt that Britain should leave the EU if these measures are adopted. That would be an ethical imperative.

But I say that with the utmost trepidation, because many states will not have that option. Their subjugation through debt would deny them that choice.

And in that case I fear a Europe divided by the financial crisis, and by an attempt by bankers to retain control when it is all too obvious that they, their feral instincts and their feral economy are the greatest real threat to well-being most of us face.

I don’t want to cry wolf: that’s never wise. But this is an issue on which the politicians of the UK – all politicians in the UK, not just the usual band of Eurosceptics – have to stand up and say collectively that democracy has to prevail not just in this country but right across Europe if we are to really handle this crisis and the problems it has created.

Right now the EU is moving away from democracy. It cannot be stated less boldly than that. And you have every reason to be worried if our politicians don’t object to that, now.

 

As I have noted (more than once) Jersey and the Isle of Man failed the requirements of the EU Code of Conduct on Business Taxation last year.

On 13 September their proposed revisions go before the Code of Conduct group for review.

I gather both are appearing.

I also gather the Code Group has considerable doubts about representations being given: after all, the history of both places is that they have done all they can to abuse the requirements made of them with a veneer of compliance covering blatant attempts to get round the rules so they could continue to offer tax haven ring fencing. Given that the Code Group rightly notes that both Crown Dependencies are in parlous financial state I suspect few believe they won’t try such abuse again.

It could be an interesting meeting. And there’s no certainty either will walk away with an approval – because there are doubts, as I’ve previously mentioned, that they will. The islands both failed on three counts last time. They look to be addressing two concerns but there is doubt about the third. They may pass, but my doubts definitely remain. But I could be wrong. It’s possible.

 

The Belfast Telegraph featured an article yesterday where a KPMG partner in Belfast argued Ireland will never give up its low tax rate whatever Merkel and Sarkozy say and that Northern Ireland’s tax rate must be cut as soon as possible.

KPMG are heavily invested in the plan to make Northern Ireland a tax haven so I am not surprised by the comments. They are, of course, amongst the very few who would gain from this plan which would be massively onerous for the ordinary people of Northern Ireland.

In response the Belfast Telegraph reported:

But anti-poverty campaigner and blogger Richard Murphy said that harmonisation was “inevitable” and called for Ireland to “stop looting other European economies”.

“There is no way this tax competition can continue while the Eurozone is so desperate for cash, it is now not a case of ‘if’ but ‘when’,” he said.

“Ireland will be picked on, it can bluster all it likes but harmonisation will happen. We must question why Northern Ireland is so desperate to copy a system that is doomed to fail and does not work.

“Ireland has already had preferential treatment, it is time for Ireland to grow up and play its part in the international economy and to stop looting other European economies.”

That about sums it up.

 

It is quite extraordinary that one of the key proposals to come out of yesterday’s meeting between Merkel and Sarkozy was a demand that Eurozone countries out balanced budget legislation in place by 2012.

Balanced budgets are, of course, designed to constrain government activity. They’re not an economic policy: they’re a right wing political policy that says a government may not borrow to fund its activities.

So, unlike business, which borrows extensively to fund investment, and unlike households, the vast majority of whom could not ever acquire a home without borrowing, government is not allowed to borrow under these proposals even if it were appropriate for the government to do so to fund programmes that can supply considerable future benefit to the people of its country.

So, hospitals must be paid for up front. And so must schools. And roads. And all other infrastructure.

More than that, if the market fails to supply a enough demand to create full employment (as is the case now) then such a move would ban the government form intervening to create demand even though it is known that the only way to get out of the resulting recessionary downward spiral is for the governmentto intervene and stimulate demand until recovery occurs – when rightly it should pull back and repay its debts. In effect these laws would outlaw the only proven mechanism for defeating recession as created by Keynes in the 1930s.

To describe the measures as economic insanity is in the circumstances being kind to them.

It’s easy to see the logic behind such proposals though. All hospitals must be private in future if this is to happen; and so will all road building be privately funded. Education will now be under the control of the private sector and run for its benefit. Whilst if there are unemployed, so what? It keeps wage rates down for the benefit of business.

This is law would then be designed for three purposes. The first is to make sure that privatisation across Europe is guaranteed. The second is to advance the interests of the banks who will profit enormously from that process because there is so much more money to be made by funding infrastructure privately than through government (which in itself is the clearest measure of the inefficiency of the proposal and the massive likely cost to the taxpayer of doing it) and finally it’s designed to shift yet more of the resources of Europe to the rich.

Which is why it has to be vehemently opposed.

 

The reality that banks are out of control and that you can’t run a common market without some degree of commonality in tax has finally dawned on the EU.

Merkel and Sarkozy moved towards a financial transaction tax on EU banks yesterday, which is a welcome and overdue move that needs replication way beyond the Eurozone if the feral banking economy is to be brought under control.

And there are also clear signs that corporation tax harmonisation is on the agenda – which makes a complete mockery of moves in the UK by Northern Ireland and Scotland to move against that necessary pre-requsitie for a level playing field for business.

Both moves are in the right direction. Of course the devil will be in the detail. But these are obviously correct initiatives at this time.

As much as the move being made towards balanced budgets, to which i will turn next on this blog, is the wrong one.

 

The EU thinks it’s saved the Euro, again.

It hasn’t.

This is a deal, summarised here, that to coin the current vernacular, kicks the euro down the road until the autumn,   but which has no hope of delivering a real solution.

Why not?

Because, clause 1,  no one knows if the Greek people will, as yet, put up with the austerity that is demanded of them.  But what we can say with certainty is that  the austerity demanded will not deliver growth, whatever this document claims.

Because, clause 2, no one has worked out whether the EFSF can pay for this deal.

Because, clause 2,  the IMF may not agree that the deal.

Because, clause 4,  Germany may not in the end cough up enough cash to reflate the Greek economy, and even if it does, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy need the same deal, and  aren’t going to get it.  The awareness that a Keynesian solution is needed is hinted at in this clause, and then firmly run away from.

Because, clause 5,  when it comes down to it the  private financial sector will prevaricate, arbitrage, delay and generally obstruct any deal, seeking better advantage for themselves over all others who might participate, and that will mean that this provision will fail to deliver.

Because, clause 6,  Greece is not an exception and ignoring that fact means that clause 7 is farcical:  anyone who believes that the Irish government is going to pay in full debt that is beyond any imagination that it can  settle is naive in the extreme:   those signing  this deal were.

Because, clause 8,  this requires fiscal union and a fundamental reform the way in which the European Central Bank works, and getting agreement on that after the heat of the moment is very unlikely;

Because, clause 9,  the Germans aren’t going to guarantee other euro states debts forever;

Because, clause 10,  the Irish will try to renege, for all their worth, making a deal  on tax;

Because, clause 11,  reducing deficits to 3% of GDP is going to result in mass poverty, the destruction of welfare, the ending of healthcare provision, misery in old age, massive destruction of the state  in Europe, and in turn the destruction of GDP itself.  A commitment to the economics of the madhouse destroys the credibility of this agreement:  only a Keynesian solution can solve Europe’s crisis now, and this clause commits Europe to poverty.  Clause 12 does not change that.  The democratically elected governments in Europe will reject this package:  their electorates will demand that they do so.

Because, clause 13,  creating an economic police to impose the straitjacket will not make it work;

Because, clause 14,  reaffirming neoliberal  economic policies  is equivalent to signing  a Euro suicide note;

Because clause 15,  you can’t tell banks how to rate their loan books –  unfortunately;

Because, clause 16,  by the time we get to October all these weaknesses will be apparent.

And yet, I admit, all of those are just detail.

At its core this deal does not work for a number of much more fundamental reasons.  The first is the euro itself cannot work:  even with massive fiscal reallocation of wealth within the Eurozone the stress would remain too great: these economies are too disparate to have one currency.

Then there is the fact that, like it or not, , Ireland, Portugal, and almost certainly Spain if not Italy,  add debts that they cannot support and therefore, like it or not, European banks holding those debts are at  serious threat of insolvency.  This deal does nothing to address that issue.

Just as this deal does nothing to really stimulate growth:  it recognises that without growth Greece cannot repay its debts and yet the rest of Europe it demands cuts in government spending that can only result in a move towards stagnation or recession across Europe as a whole for decades to come.

In other words,  this is a fundamentally flawed deal,  and the flaw can be simply identified:  it is that this deal puts the stability of money above the importance of real economic activity that generates wealth for the people of Europe.  This is about bankers, yet again,  and not about putting food on the table.  This is about preserving wealth  and not about creating prosperity.  This is about maintaining division,  but not about delivering hope.

And because it fails to address any of those issues, this deal will fail.

Only when we take on the banks;  only when we realise that  real wealth is based upon the full employment of well-paid people  and only when we realise that it is the duty of governments to deliver hope can we go forward.  This deal doesn’t do that,  which is why the next version will be negotiated soon.

 

The Guardian has produced this summary of the Euro deal, and it’s good. It misses detail - but then so does the main document, but it also summarises the core of the deal, well, so without apology I think it needs to be shared:

Greece

1 Support for austerity measures

2 A new bailout with IMF help

3 Extend maximum EFSF loans from seven and a half years to 15 at lower interest rates (currently around 3.5%)

4 A comprehensive strategy for Greek economic growth under a European “Marshall plan”

5 “Haircuts” all round – the private financial sector to offer facilities such as bond exchange, rollovers and buybacks “on conditions comparable to public support” but on a voluntary basis

6 No private sector losses on any non-Greek bonds

7 All other euro countries pledge not to default

Stabilisation tools

8 Rewrite the terms of the EFSF so that it can take pre-emptive action to stop crises developing; recapitalise banks where necessary; intervene in secondary bond markets if required

Fiscal consolidation and growth in the euro area

9 Ireland and Portugal to get same lower EFSF interest rates as Greece

10 All euro area deficits to be brought below 3% by 2013 at the latest

11 Efforts to direct EU funds in order to stimulate growth and employment in Greece, Portugal and Ireland

Economic governance

12 Rush through legislation to toughen up scrutiny of individual countries’ tax and spending programmes

13 Legally binding agreements to stick to national budgets

14 Reduce reliance on non-European credit rating agencies

15 Improve crisis management in the euro area

 

 

 

Little commented on this morning is clause 10 of yesterday’s Euro deal, which says (my highlight added):

We are determined to continue to provide support to countries under programmes until they have regained market access, provided they successfully implement those programmes. We welcome Ireland and Portugal’s resolve to strictly implement their programmes and reiterate our strong commitment to the success of these programmes. The EFSF lending rates and maturities we agreed upon for Greece will be applied also for Portugal and Ireland. In this context, we note Ireland’s willingness to participate constructively in the discussions on the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base draft directive (CCCTB) and in the structured discussions on tax policy issues in the framework of the Euro+ Pact framework.

Three obvious things follow. First, a welcome for this move towards a unitary basis for taxation in Europe. Second, a welcome for this breakthrough in closing down the Irish tax haven. Third a note to the UK Treasury and to Northern Ireland’s politicians: it’s time to stop discussing cuts in Northern Ireland’s corporation tax rate.

There had to be a silver lining in this deal. This is it.

 

It looks like the German plan of simply asking banks to do the Eurozone a favour by rolling over their bonds into new,  discounted, long-term issues could prevail at the European summit.

There is no way that this model can be rolled out across  Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy.  It’s not a solution.

I suggest why we got into this mess,  and what we need from government to get out of it,  in a new blog  on Forbes, here.