I’ve taken one last look a some of the absurd budget assumptions implicit in the claims made by Osborne. The data I’m using is here: I have already done some work on this here, but then noticed the problems in the self assessment line, and so did a little reworking because if it almost inconceivable that the income raised
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These are the key economic assumptions underpinning the UK budget: There are some extraordinary comments in here. First, there’s no obvious reason why growth picks up in two years: it is just assumed that after two years the UK growth rate returns to the long term trend rate. That’s why growth is always two years
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The scale of George Osborne’s tax giveaway to big business became very much clearer in yesterday’s budget. The headline tax collection forecasts are as follows:   Income tax is forecast to grow 30% between 2011-12 and 2017-18. Corporation tax if forecast to fall despite the fact that economic recovery is anticipated and corporation tax receipts always go up disproportionately in a recovery.
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The biggest anti-avoidance measure in the budget is an attack on disguised partnership arrangements, which HMRC are forecasting will raise more than £300 million a year, whilst the GAAR will raise a tiny proportion of that. Now I have no problem with any attack on artificial arrangements – and if LLPs and partnerships are being used to pay people
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All budgets end up being tagged. Last year's was the pasty and caravan budget. By delivering a 1p cut in the price of a pint this one deserves to be called the small beer budget. And from a tax campaigner's point of view that is exactly what it was. There is news to welcome from
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I can't recall now for how long I've done the budget commentary on the Jeremy Vine Show; it's several years now. So since it's another budget day at 12.25 and then again just after Osborne sits down I'll be in the Radio 2 studio with Jeremy and whichever right winger they find to take me
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Osborne doesn't speak today until 12.30. But he trailed a 20% subsidy for childcare costs as his great middle class give away in the budget and guess what? It looks like the first U turn will be coming soon. The Tories hate it. It's unfair to mums who don't work, they say. The Mail is
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As the FT notes this morning (because almost everything about this budget is being leaked in advance) George Osborne will admit in Wednesday’s Budget that it will take even longer than previously forecast for public sector debt to begin to fall. His bleak message will further damage the government’s reputation for economic competence. Having originally
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Budget predictions and demands can be boring (read most of those in the Observer if you don’t believe me) but it is an annual requirement to make clear what you want knowing full well that you’ll be disappointed. If that’s to be the case I’ve decided to go for maximum remorse and show no restraint
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