You have had mornings like this. My energy levels are low. My son won't make college today despite his recently discovered, and much appreciated by me, work ethic because he just feels too ill to get up, and Brexit is more depressing than ever.
When the best three answers to the Irish issue are a) Ireland rejoin the UK b) Ireland unites in the EU and c) Sinn Fein take their Westminster seats to join the DUP in opposing Brexit you know you really are between a rock, a hard place and desperate comment. Those are not going to happen, although the last is most likely and that's in hat-eating territory.
But as important is another issue, which is David Davis denying parliament the information it demanded. If anyone thought that Brexit was about taking back control now they should note that it clearly is not. If it was thought Brussels was unaccountable and the EU system of government undemocratic then in one move Davis has confirmed Brexit and all that will follow from it will be just as bad. There will be no control.
So Brexit threatens trade. And it threatens our nationhood, whilst most definitely not bringing back control. So what's left of it? Migration, as far as I can tell. And despite the fantasies of the Brextremists we can't do without that but can at most begin to make minor reforms to it. So all this is not just worthless, but is a fiasco causing untold harm.
And still most politicians bleat on about 'the will of the people'. Let me remind them that no one voted for chaos. And if that's all that politicians can deliver then they're not delivering the will of the people. They are, instead, collectively failing. This is the unfortunate best summary of both our major parties at present. And that just adds to the cost of this whole, disastrous episode that will define the politics of these now deeply divided islands for many decades to come.
No wonder people want to crawl back under the duvet and hope it will all go away. But I won't be joining them.
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Steady on, Richard. The sun has also risen and here in Sheffield it is a glorious dawn. “The sun shall shine on the righteous and unrighteous alike (paraphrasing) and sends rain on the just and the unjust.”
Its just that the former appreciate it more. The latter are so busy skulking and drowning in their lies that they never even notice. Such is their fate.
Well, I hope that said son gets well soon.
And I’d heartily recommend that you take a day off. Just one, mind.
For me it transpires from your post more than ever before that what seems to be happening is some form of hijacking of our trade relationships by some very self interested people embedded in the Tory party (mostly) who seem to be more keen on looking over the Atlantic for trade links, rather than over the Channel.
The Tories have previous form on this sort of behaviour. They always talk about demolishing ‘vested interests’ but all they ever do is move those interests around – usually moving those interests from a publically accountable body to an unaccountable one.
The BREXITERS (and I follow William Keegan’s example by not glamourising them anymore by calling them ‘brexiteers’) treat our democracy with contempt like they treat the people of this country with contempt – even those they abuse – by winding them up with lies so that they support WRECKS-IT.
None of us are good enough for them. We are nothing to them.
For the Tory BREXIT mob’s eyes are on the prizes they will inherit when they forge their new trade links with America becoming no-doubt part of the well paid architecture that will help the US expand beyond its own libertarian ravaged lands into our NHS, our military, our schools. We will see yet more asset stripping
And who else – trade deals with Russia, China perhaps?
And you are right about chaos. Only the rich can ride out such chaos and also know how to exploit it. A hard BREXIT will result in plenty of dead fish in the sea for them to gorge on.
Something tells me that this will not stop until people see prices rise as supply lines clog up. They may not be bothered that the US or other countries effectively take control of our assets but as soon as the basics start to falter, discontent will not be far behind.
As for Parliament I remain deeply concerned that there is no effective working together of pro-EU members holding Davies to account and absolutely demanding that he bring the full facts to the table.
I understood that Parliament was effectively the highest court in the land (forgive me but I’m not sure how it interacts with our new ‘Supreme Court’ and it is a long time since my basic law course at Uni ).
But I would have thought it worth trying that Parliament could issue a writ of mandamus on arrogant Davies and the rest of ‘Team WRECKS-IT’ (sic) and command him to reveal all in the context of public duty (to bring the decision to the houses of parliament).
Agreed
Except re the day off
Lots of maths to do…..
Hedonist. 😉
I’m wondering, if we’re splitting with the EU, why is it that we’re still reducing our armed forces? The given understanding was we’d eventually be part of some EU forces, but post any actual Brexit, that clearly won’t be the case. That being so, I’m concerned that some may be looking over the Atlantic for rather more than is currently suspected…
We will be a very minor power
Our role internationally will be over
We have given it up by being an unreliable partner
Me too Richard. I’m up. (There have been times in my life when I wouldn’t have been)
Can’t argue with the above. Complete abdication of political responsibility is what we are witnessing.
Even another GE won’t solve it because we’d get mostly just ‘the usual suspects’ back in power.
Richard
you have every right to be fed up.
I keep a close eye on Ireland as you know and there is a lot of my analysis on Progressive Pulse.
Lets look at the 3 options
a) Ireland rejoin the UK. This is definitely in “hell would freeze over first territory” for a variety of reasons, but most recently because there is a near universal belief in Ireland that Brexit will be a disaster for the UK, particularly given the “clowns” in charge. Satisfaction with the EU has gone up with some opinion polls as high as 90%
b) Ireland unites in the EU. Until Brexit I would say that there was a near zero possibility of a United Ireland within 25 years. Recent opinion polls however are much tighter with some measures putting 56.4% of 18-44 year olds being in favour of a UI (though 55-45% against overall). I have seen comments such as “Brexit has had an almost evangelical effect on my immediate family. This has been replicated with cousins, friends and acquaintances. They are worried. Deeply worried.” The good Friday Agreement only requires 50%+1. Even so we are talking 5-10 years here so it will not get us out of this immediate mess.
c) Very unlikely but if there was a GE and they were needed to form a Corbyn Government with a cast iron guarantee of a border poll they might be tempted. But there has been a long history of Westminster chewing up Irish parties and spitting them out. This is not just Republicans, Unionists as well.
This quote from Edward Carson, one of the founding father’s of NI is interesting:
“What a fool I was. I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power. And of all the men in my experience that I think are the most loathsome, it is those who will sell their friends for the purpose of conciliating their enemies, and, perhaps, still worse, the men who climb up a ladder into power of which even I may have been part of a humble rung, and then, when they have got into power, kick the ladder away without any concern for the pain, or injury, or mischief, or damage that they do to those who have helped them to gain power”.
Regarding the Irish veto on talks going forward, they seem to have the unanimous backing of the EU26. There may be an Irish GE on the cards but it will bring no joy to the Brexiteers as there is near universal backing of Leo’s position. I am reminded of this sketch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePi4dieDS8Y
I agree Sean, entirely
Lovely, lovely lighthouse clip, Sean. Thanks for that.
Blimey.
A damning indictment from Mr Carson.
Who else is this Government of charlatans going to upset? And all these increasingly hacked off people milling around is like tinder waiting for a spark.
It’s not good. The ground is being prepared for conflict.
Neil Wilson has some alternative suggestions re: Ireland
https://medium.com/@aldursys/what-irish-border-issue-24056d5f6cf7
I long ago had enough of Neil Wilson here
I know he supposedly knows MMT but his political judgement left me in considerable doubt
That article proves that I was absolutely justified in having no time for him
Have had had a look at Neil Wilson’s article. I won’t bother critiquing it as I wouldn’t know where to start. Richard is absolutely right here.
Sean Danaher says:
November 28 2017 at 10:16 am
“Have had had a look at Neil Wilson’s article. I won’t bother critiquing it as I wouldn’t know where to start. Richard is absolutely right here.”
If Neil Wilson thinks that drivel offers an answer he’s not asking the right question.
As you probably all know the great MMT blogger Bill Mitchell is also pro-Brexit but I think he makes the mistake of conflating the problems with the structure of the Eurozone (lack of sovereign currency of members) with the UK situation (sovereign country outside the Eurozone).
UK needs to have a relationship with its neighbours and when you ask what is the best possible deal given the circumstances, it looks pretty much like the deal the UK currently has. To trade you need to sign up to some mutually agreed regulations with is the EU and it has worked rather well for the last 40 years.
We know that the EU has neoliberal tendencies but so does the current UK government (probably more so).
The bottom line is we cannot leave Europe and you have got to be involved to have any kind of control.
I agree Charles
I fear Bill is being blinded by dogma on this
Hi Charles
and apologies to Richard. I think Bill is right about the eurozone but the UK wisely stayed out. I agree the UK is is in a near optimal position and can see no possible way things will be better after Brexit. I do hope the Irish will give sufficient excuse to climb down from a untenable position. The worry is that there exists an unacknowledged and unconscious superiority in some of the English which will be enraged by the Irish standing up. A bit like a wife standing up to her violent husband in 1950s Britain, as Fintan O’Toole puts it.
Chris Johns also had a good article recently https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ignorance-of-irish-history-means-brexit-talks-will-not-end-well-1.3305818
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/28/keir-starmer-keeps-pressure-on-david-davis-over-edited-brexit-papers
How on earth can Parliament be expected to go into a decision of this magnitude without seeing the impact predictions beforehand?
It would seem to me that the Govt don’t want to release the reports as it will complete shatter the case for hard Brexit, and could bring down the Government. If they’re not that significant, why the attempts to keep them locked down?
Labour should really seek to form a coalition of mutual interest amongst the Lib Dems, SNP, PC, and any willing Tories to push for the reports to be released in full. This really could be a chance to bring down the Government and to reconsider Brexit. Labour need a face saving opportunity to say why they have to stop it ( to spin to their fervently pro Brexit voters in certain areas ) – this could be it.
“Labour should really seek to form a coalition of mutual interest amongst the Lib Dems, SNP, PC, and any willing Tories”
I agree, Bez0, But unfortunately the Labour Party is an all or nothing party. Jeremy Corbyn is currently engaged in actually undermining the SNP in Scotland rather than seeking common ground with its natural allies. Refusal to get on board with the Progressive Alliance initiative pre GE is indicative of this short-termist narrow mindset.
He’s endorsing and encouraging a new Labour leader in Scotland who wants to re-nationalise Scottish water. A bit foolish really since it is still a national public sector body. Is this stupidity or just ignorance? Neither is worth voting for.
If Mr Corbyn spent more time addressing real issues than imagined ones we might see some progress. A classic case of not putting one’s own house in order.
Corbyn and Co may surprise us yet.
I have faith that Labour will pull through somehow because that is all I can have faith in. My faith is there to be broken. I hope that I will not have to tell you that you are right.
Let us not forget how toxic this issue is Andy.
If Labour play their hand too early can you imagine what that would like? You have surely seen what a feeding frenzy by a school of sharks looks like? You’ve seen the normally restrained Telegraph now ‘naming and shaming’ those thought to be Remainer’s alongside WRECKS-IT stalwarts like The Mail?
The biggest mistake we can all make is that we think that we can impose rationalism on this most irrational of situations. The BREXIT situation requires a different mind set to deal with it.
If we are going to stop this, then it is all going to be about timing and precision. I refuse to believe that Labour cannot see just how damaging BREXIT will be to the people it purports to represent.
Stopping WREXIT is going to be rather like trying to smoke a pipe on a windy day whilst sitting on a barrel of gunpowder. That is you need to do it extremely carefully.
“If Labour play their hand too early can you imagine what that would like? You have surely seen what a feeding frenzy by a school of sharks looks like? ”
Actually I haven’t ever seen a shark feeding frenzy, but I have seen trout fed in a fish farm and I know what you mean.
I agree timing is crucial, but if you’ve noticed nobody from the political sphere ever announces anything of consequence these days without first leaking it to gauge the response. Leave that too late and there isn’t time to adjust and row back a bit or even allow the fuss to die back to rational levels.
Compass is having another go at getting some cross party progressive consensus together. The difficulty, as last time, will be getting the Labour Party to ‘join’.
Corbyn sowing dissent in Scotland is not doing himself or his party any favours. Quite the contrary in fact. He cannot lead the way in Scotland when he is starting at least ten years behind.
Here’s a link for anybody who is not already in touch with Compass. (I kind of assume everyone is, but Ass U Me applies. Hee Haw.) It’s an appeal for financial support, but that’s of course entirely optional and there’s info about what they wish to achieve. There are interesting discussion papers in their archive.
https://compassonline.nationbuilder.com/common-platform?utm_campaign=common_platform&utm_medium=email&utm_source=compassonline
Even Rees-Mogg wants full disclosure of the papers:
From the above Guardian article:
“An influential Brexit-supporting Conservative member of the committee, Jacob Rees-Mogg, said parliament’s vote should be considered as binding. He said the government was “in serious constitutional waters if it doesn’t provide the full information” to the committee.”
I think Rees-Mogg’s cognitive bias is so strong that he sees the world through Brexit coloured spectacles. What could the papers reveal that wouldn’t reinforce the case for Brexit?
Not sure if you’ve heard of NERI, but just thought you might be interested in their work. It’s a very nervous atmosphere here in NI – the peace was fragile enough before all this extra division. https://www.nerinstitute.net/blog/2017/11/24/brexit-and-ireland-an-unholy-trinity-of-options/
I know Tom, and like his work
A good man in my opinion
Hi Martina
yes I know NERI and visit their site regularly. Thanks for the link. Very clearly nicely, and accurately put.
I try to keep my finger on the pulse in NI and regularly comment on Slugger O’Toole
Have you looked at Ivan Roger’s lecture with details on Cameron’s decisionmaking? https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-inside-story-of-how-david-cameron-drove-britain-to-brexit
Thanks for the link
Read now
“The rain it raineth on the just
And also on the unjust fella;
But chiefly on the just, because
The unjust hath the just’s umbrella.”
― Charles Bowen
I share Richards sense of doom and frustration at the seeming inevitability of it all. It’s only mildly comforting to find that all contributors (thank you usual suspects) are seeing things much as I see them, be it Ireland, the sheer arrogance and incompetenceof those driving Brexit, or the fragmented nature of the opposition. Then add in the bland and unchallenging stance of the BBC, with Bone last night and Grayling this morning allowed to have their more ludicrous claims go unquestioned, with no-one to counter them.
Where trade is concerned, I fear that those behind Brexit have a different understanding to those who have voted for them. These are people who merely see a set of assets to be bought and sold, public and private. They have no interest in investing in Britain to build companies that might ‘trade’ and create new, properly paid jobs. It’s the Disaster Capitalism model, where the vultures swoop in to pick the meat off the carcass. Doubtless people on this blog will be aware of Legatum and their malign influence.
Meanwhile Labour continue to collude with Brexit, though I don’t doubt that there are those in their ranks who are capable and would like to challenge more strongly. However, at the core there are those who are every bit as hostile to the EU as any right wing Brexiter. Their vision I fear is that in the wreckage that will follow Brexit, they will have the opportunity to impose their own model – what one might term Disaster Socialism.
A further thought – in all the debate about the cost of leaving, we hear about the payment to the EU and potential loss of trade but I’ve not heard any attempt at costing the replacement of the various agencies whose costs are currently shared with 27 other countries. The medicines and banking regulators for starters but there’s a very long list. Although the Rees-Mogg of this world think we can do without them, it’s yet another of their unicorns. Then there’s the additional costs of customs staff and systems and doubtless many other areas that will see increased expenditure.
Feels like a worthwhile piece of work. Might it have been done already? Wonder how one might start…?
I guess that’s in a redacted report…..
The thought had occurred to me…
Do we know of a list of these agencies? Anyone? It would be handy to have access to one to cite in arguments on the subject.
It is interesting that we are not being reminded here of how the EU has developed and operated .
Start at the European Coal & Steel Community (ECSC – signed, Paris 1951, by France, Germany, Italy and the Benelux countries & NB what’s happened to UK Steel industry – not all Thatcher’s doing! Belgium has on 22 occasions broken an aspect of ECSC Treaty I gather); various Treaties have tightened the knot since, although the Danes & the Irish voted against some of them – mind you ol’ butt they had to vote again!!! BUT NB France & Holland voted against the Constitution Treaty & were not told to vote again!!! That Treaty was very slightly modified AND then pushed through as the Lisbon Treaty with no referendum!!! By the way listen to Gisela Stuart who was a UK Parliamentary Rep. to the European Convention in 2003 tasked with drawing up a new EU Constitution Treaty & also served as one of the 13 members of the Convention’s Presidium – responsible for managing the Convention. She stated that it had been drawn up by a “self-selected group of the European political elite” determined to deepen European integration. She later expounded these views in a 2004 Fabian Society pamphlet, The Making of Europe’s Constitution. Voici extracts : “…… But it is precisely this kind of change of language which makes people distrust anything to do with the EU. The language is either vague or obscure & it’s difficult to work out what words really mean. Some lawyers will argue it does not matter whether we call this a treaty or constitution ….. the European process (eg the European Commission has the sole right to initiate European laws) seem to remain a mystery to many ………. Responding to public concerns about the direction of the European project by saying ’don’t be silly, nothing like this is going to happen’ or ’it’s going to happen anyway, so don’t try to stop it’ just won’t do ……… Negotiations in Brussels tend ….. lends itself to lobbying by single interest groups, but makes democratic accountability difficult. Ministers / House of Commons only get involved at the very late stages, when the vast majority of decisions have already been taken. If we don’t enable ………… we hand over power to unelected civil servants — because they have factual information … & … collective memory which few ministers & MPs have ……… in all the proceedings of the Presidium, there was an unspoken assumption that the acquis communautaire — i.e. every-thing that had been given to the Union as a power or competence — was untouchable. The debates focused solely on where we could do more at EU level. Any representative who took issue with the fundamental goal of deeper integration was side-lined. ….. ” Read Gisela Stuart’s pamphlet for even more insights re the aims of the unelecteds for the EU States – after all she was there in the inner sanctum & heard the intent of those unelecteds. Were you there ???
Also were you privy to the EU Commission & the US’s discussions re TTIP & its ISDS? AND were you privy to the EU Commission & Canada’s discussions re CETA & its ICS? Strange that CETA went through under the radar almost simultaneously – HOW ODD! Why was Cecilia Malmotz appointed the head of TTIP committee at a late date?
What is going on with the GM discussions, or the Glyphosate? Why did Yanis Varoufakis say we are getting the EU run around? What did he say re Greece’s discussions with China re Trade? Actually the outcomes would have been positive – BUT the EU stopped any progress there!!!
I’m sure there is more that could be dug up, but time is short. We UK citizens will be of no consequence inside the EU, as will be the case for all EU citizens.
I have to say your argument is very hard to discern, let alone follow
You have to be clearer to add value