The EU has, wisely in my opinion, agreed that Northern Ireland would be immediately readmitted to EU membership if it were to join a United Ireland. I stress that I am well aware that unification is unlikely at present. But post-Brexit, who knows?
There is an obvious point to make though. If Northern Ireland can be a special case, why not Scotland, and even Wales? I, again, know that independence for the latter is very unlikely, but the point is that they are already separate countries and are recognised as such. So if they left the UK why could they not, at the very least, be given fast track re-admission?
I sincerely hope that the EU will see the reason for that case in due course, and that Spain will too despite Catalonia.
The logic is clear. Goodwill should permit it.
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Key difference between Northern Ireland and Scotland or Wales is surely that were Northern Ireland to vote to join a United Ireland it would be joining and therefore taking on all the rules, laws etc of an existing EU member state. Scotland or Wales would go from leaving a non-EU state to being a standalone non-EU state. There would be no immediate convergence.
The EU can quite easily and logically sy to Scotland or Wales, you were not in the EU as part of UK and you are not immediately in the UK as an independent country. Much more problamatic to say to a United Ireland that 3/4 of their country is in the EU but the last bit is not.
I accept the point
But it can also be said they were in a member state so fast track, as I suggested, would be appropriate
Then there would either be an implicit or explicit ticking timeline. How long does the former EU member state fastrack rule last? Divergence will start​ as soon as UK leaves the EU if it hasn’t started all ready. Everyday outside of the EU makes it harder and more illogical to fastrack Scotland or Wales back in.
I think you should be aware that in the real world everything is negotiable
As NI is even more closely integrated with the UK than Scotland is then a special case for Scotland should be easier.
Which is why Scotland must hold an independence referendum before brexit.
I think you will have missed several EU seniors visiting Scotland who have been quoted saying (approximately), ‘Scotland currently meets most of the criteria for EU membership, so negotiations will not take long’.
The precedent here is presumably East Germany?
How about the idea of a Scotland-Ireland-Northern Ireland federation – might thay give Scotland a shortcut to EU membership?
The idea of a United Celtic States had occurred to me
But I have to say it did not appeal for all sorts of reasons
Richard I have written a long piece on Northern Ireland on the Progressive Pulse site http://www.progressivepulse.org/brexit/if-we-close-our-eyes-will-we-know-we-have-left-the-eu/ it looks at future options for Northern Ireland. It has the advantage that the Republic is very concerned about Northern Ireland and has pushed hard for it to be a special case
I live north of Hadrian’s wall in Northumberland and meet loads of Scots; many of whom are dear friends and those whom I know well enough to discuss politics are all pro-independence and pro-EU.
Spain has softened its stance on Scotland
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu
but I agree that it would be nice if both Scotland and Wales were given the option. I can’t see the Westminster Government in any way pressing for this however; quite the opposite given Mays rhetoric.
However an interesting article in the Irish Times recently from Paul Goodman “Tory talk of union hides soft underbelly of English nationalism” who edits ConservativeHome (enemy territory for me) http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/tory-talk-of-union-hides-soft-underbelly-of-english-nationalism-1.3025164
It is worth quoting:
Twenty-nine per cent said that the break-up of the union would “finally end the unreasonable demands on England to provide ever-greater financial and political concessions to Scotland”.
If one added those who believe that this development would “have no real significance for the remaining parts of the UK” and those who think that “any problems could be managed”, that total rises to 66 per cent. Only 33 per cent of respondents said that it “would inflict serious damage on the power, influence and well-being of the remaining parts of the UK”.
In other words, two in three of those Conservative Party members are sanguine about the end of the union. And more than one in four seem happy for it to happen.
I strongly suspect you are right: those are the ratios in England
Bizarrely there may be a Tory bounce in Scotland because they are playing the Unionist card
FYI, and contrary to the MSM, at least since 2012 Spain has in fact been stating that they would not have any problem with Scotland joining the EU as long as the process was completed legally.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/spanish-non-bombs/
Ha, ha! So, they’ll have to re-dig Offa’s dyke, and make the fortification s do an “about-face”, this time to keep the English out.
For, as you may recall, I’ve always said that if Scotland became independent, Wales would follow, perhaps to join that Scottish/Irish zone of collaboration and cooperation your posited in an earlier post, to form a sort of Celtic EEA.
That, of course, would mean that Rump UK would just be Little England, stewing in its own juice, and probably with Cornwall trying to join up with Wales (one of its names was West Wales), and large parts of England north of the Trent, and certainly north of the Humber, trying to join up with Scotland, a mighty unhappy place it would be.
Your post about how Greater London has actually been drawing wealth and energy away from all parts of the UK, except its immediate environs makes such a fantasy scenario as mine seem a possibility, however remote a possibility it might be judged to be.
What IS a reality, however, is the genuine discontent felt by the rest of the UK that lies beyond that Greater London hinterland, and the mistrust (at best – contempt at worst) felt by the rest of the UK for that Greater London hinterland, both of which would argue that, if not seriously addressed, then trouble will ensue, and so any government should be looking at how to address the inequitable funding, and how to create truly devolved and decentralised power.
A start would be properly to fund local government, along with a true strengthening of its remit, powers and local democratic accountability. At present, local government is little more than the organ-grinder’s monkey, with central government that (not very capable) organ-grinder. Joseph “King of Birmingham” Chamberlain would never have stood for the present arrangement, and look what he and his Victorian colleagues in other cities and regions of Britain, achieved.
Sitting in the pub the other day having a discussion about Brexit one of the group, an engineering lecturer from Ireland (resident here) said that one reason why some people in the north would be reluctant to join the south is that they don’t want to pay to see the doctor. In other words they value the NHS. So the answer is simple, if the south wants a united Ireland, all it has to do, is create its own NHS.
Very occasionally wisdom comes out of pubs, and it has to be said that everything seems simpler after a couple of beers.
A united Ireland ‘fast-tracked’ inside the EU would resolve the tricky problem of the border between north and south. An independent Scotland ‘fast-tracked’ into the EU would be a somewhat different case because whereas in Ireland a potential EU/non-EU frontier would be eliminated, in Scotland one would be created along its 100 mile or so border with England.
I do not think this question of an EU/non-EU border at the Cheviots has received much attention. Can anyone point me in the direction of any studies that have been done? Or in the direction of any comparative studies of similar frontier zones undergoing similar transitions?
There has been one done on Northern Ireland http://prcg.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Modeling-Irish-Unification-Report.pdf and I understand they have looked at Germany and Korea also
I don’t know of any similar studies for Scotland and the data simply doesn’t exist as far as I understand to make accurate scenario modelling possible. There is GERS http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS but this has been the subject of a very lively debate, which caught Richard by surprise I think.
A united Ireland would eliminate a EU/non-EU frontier and at the same time create a new one at Larne/Cairnryan, Belfast/Liverpool/Douglas.
However, if the bespoke trade deal with the EU promised by Brexiteers comes to fruition then the border question is irrelevant because trade with the EU will continue smoothly and easily.
And pigs might fly
‘Little England’? Actually give or take a few cliffs falling in to the sea, the physical size of England does not change. The phrase only indicates antipathy.
Re the EU statement over Ireland, a top priority for the EU grey-suited gravy trainers is making sure that leaving the EU will inflicting pain or at least creating a perception that it will inflict pain. That is the name of the game right now.
An encouragement for division in the exiting member state is the dirtiest cut.
Irish issues go very deep indeed. This proposition could encourage a resumption of violence. Well done EU.
Of course the EU statement is a signal of encouragement to Scotland – thus inherently laying the threat on thickly for the UK.
Realistic reference to what borders would be necessary would help rebalance any assessment.
Linda I have written a balanced pieced I think on http://www.progressivepulse.org/brexit/if-we-close-our-eyes-will-we-know-we-have-left-the-eu/ and happy to discuss further there. Thanks for your input