NHS A&E data revisited

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I did some quick work on NHS A&E admissions data earlier this week. The data in question has been reworked by Sean Danaher, whose knowledge of maths and stats far exceeds mine. As Sean noted to me:

I’ve had a go at fitting the data. I’ve used fairly classical techniques to detrained the data (subtract best straight line and a Fourier Transform (up to 4th harmonic) to get the fit . There is quite a lot of variability but the headline figure is that the maximum on average is late July (24th).  The minimum is in late January.

This is the trend:

nhs1

And with regard to seasonality, the summer does show peak admissions:

aande2

July is peak time, counter-intuitively.

My thanks to Sean.