I did some quick work on NHS A&E admissions data earlier this week. The data in question has been reworked by Sean Danaher, whose knowledge of maths and stats far exceeds mine. As Sean noted to me:
I’ve had a go at fitting the data. I’ve used fairly classical techniques to detrained the data (subtract best straight line and a Fourier Transform (up to 4th harmonic) to get the fit . There is quite a lot of variability but the headline figure is that the maximum on average is late July (24th). The minimum is in late January.
This is the trend:
And with regard to seasonality, the summer does show peak admissions:
July is peak time, counter-intuitively.
My thanks to Sean.