I note reports that suggest that the Republucans in the USA are working out whether and how to dump Trump as their presidential nominee. I admit that given that the alternatives look almost as bad that I can take little comfort from this, but there is a point worth noting. It is that there is a widespread belief in the US that the Republicans have made a serious error of judgement and that they are now looking to put it right. That opportunity is available to them.
In contrast I am really not sure the UK could exit a Brexit vote, even if it proves to be a serious error of judgement based on false pretences presented to the electorate.
I have no great love for the EU. It's just that, like it or not, it's better than all the other options available to the UK right now on a whole range of issues.
This is a time for pragmatic common sense, not futile idealism. We cannot correct this mistake if we make it.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
It is my firm belief that Cameron and Osborne want us to leave the EU which is why they have put up such a weak defence of it. And, the leave campaign have told so many large lies repeatedly delivered by the media that they have been transformed into ‘truth’ like ‘trickle down’ or, the economy is like a household budget. Too many people have been conned by these shysters.
If Cameron and Osborne wanted to Leave, they could campaign for Leave.
As it is currently, they’re headed to the backbench whichever way the vote goes. If they campaigned Leave, they’d have a chance of continuing in top positions in the event that a Leave vote is carried. They could even switch sides now, professing a Damascene conversion which would conveniently save their parliamentary careers. It would be shameless, but I don’t think it’s beyond either of them. Really, it would be no more weaselly than the Johnson U-turns.
I think the mistake for Cameron/Osborne was offering the referendum in the first place. I suspect that they thought Remain would be carried overwhelmingly. This would crush the small amount of opposition (what Major referred to as “the bastards”) in the party, and cement their power, with an orderly transition to an Osborne prime ministership around 2019.
I think a more likely reason that Cameron and Osborne’s campaigning has been weak is that they can’t reveal their true intention (i.e. a power grab within the Tory party) in offering the referendum. To do so would (correctly) make them look irresponsible in their governance of the UK. But, failure to reveal the motive leaves them open to the objection “If a Leave vote would be so devastating to the country, why on Earth did you offer the referendum?”. Since they have no effective answer to such a foundational question, their campaigning also is without a strong foundation. And it shows.
The result of the referendum is not binding upon any UK government.
It is advisory only.
Unlike the 2011 referendum; where the result was legally binding.
Bug the political reality is very different
Richard; you’ve been around enough to know that The Great British Public can not hold a political idea, or ideal, in their head longer than a few parts of Coronation Street.
Give it six months and everyone will have either voted leave, and regret it: Or voted Remain, and regret it.
I have a friend (well, maybe) who lives in Spain(most of the time). He’s voting to leave. Seriously….
His elderly parents also live there, and are quite happy for the UK to depart. Even though their pensions will still be paid, their pension increases will not. Neither will their Xmas bonus, or winter heating allowance.
More than a few people, after brexit, will be highly offended if the EU makes negotiating a goodbye deal hard…but really…this campaign has gone way over the edge in terms of insults, and even xenophobia.
That French guy, who stated that the financial system “single passport” would not apply after brexit, was accused of threatening the country…I thought he was quite bland about it…just saying what will happen.
Still, it’s all those “foreigners” ain’t it…..
And the initial two-year period to get things sorted will allow even more time to wallow in self-pity, and forget even more.
It was only a year ago that Boris was whole-heartedly in favour of the EU…..what a difference a year, and overpowering political ambition, makes…
Three times we tried to get into the EEC…..
If there was a way for the EU to expel states, we would have been out years ago.
WE have exported several megatonnes of whining to the EU over the years…
I’ve found that it is impossible to make a fact based decision because that entirely relies on being able to predict the future.
All that is left is to vote based on what you believe, what sort of county you want to live in, what sort of democracy you want.
Trying to make the decision based on what you think the tax rates will be, what levels of migration will be or whether the EU will entirely collapse, is nigh on impossible.
It is for once an entirely idealistic vote, but of course no matter what happens, in ten years both sides will look back and claim victory.
I disagree
There is a reality here in that I see no way brexit cannimprocw the UK’s economic position
But that is not the reason to vote Remain
Remain us about accepting that as humans we live on community and Leavd is a denial of that
To that extent this is idealistic
‘Remain us about accepting that as humans we live on community and Leave is a denial of that’
The EU itself is the most fulsome denial of that, Richard! The idea that it is a ‘community’ in any sense is beyond risible and becomes tragedy mixed with farce. To talk of ‘reforming’ the E.U is the same as saying let it not be the E.U.
The E.U as the greatest European experiment in neo-liberal (non) thinking is finished and has created its own dissolution by means of being the handmaiden of the rise of fascism. It did not read the signs when it needed to and the schizophrenic division between economic policy and ‘notions’ of socila justice must be one of the greatest acts of mental compartmentalisation ever known and worthy of study in the symptomatology of such conditions.
Apparently, applications for Irish passports have increased by a few hundred percent. And also applications for Spanish citizenship.
Vote to leave EU. Apply to stay there after !
As I have already declared, I do have an Irish as well as a British passport
This video is a good start.. Michael Dougan, EU law expert. Sounds dry but it’s a bullshit-free and very accessible assessment of what happens to our trading relationship if we leave.
I think essential viewing because the constant refrain is ‘we’ll just renegotiate new trade deals’ as if we’re haggling for £50 off the price of a kitchen when best estimate is 10 years to get one done and we need 80!
Plus – leaving means tearing up most non-EU trading agreements as well. And the key reason countries want to sign deals with us is for the access it gives them to the EU.
https://www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/videos/1293361974024537/?pnref=story
Agreed Andrew – very clear fact-based explanantions from Prof Dougan.
This article from The Conversation I picked up from Richard’s twitter feed today is also well worth a read, for those on the left tending to “Lexit”: https://theconversation.com/left-wingers-for-brexit-need-to-wake-up-to-what-theyre-about-to-do-61259
It begins:
“If you listen to some left-wing voices — proponents of what is being called Lexit — the European Union is an undemocratic, neo-liberal empire. It is ruled by Angela Merkel and an army of cold-hearted, faceless bureaucrats in Brussels who spend their lives plotting to privatise British public services and deliberately making life in Southern Europe as miserable as possible.”
and ends:
“So if you’re left leaning and vote for Brexit, you might actually do the continental left-wing cause a favour. Without Britain holding it back, the EU might stand a chance at progress. But Brexit certainly won’t help you.”
But the bit that really made me smile comes about half-way through:
“Any British left wingers thinking of voting to leave the EU over these issues should perhaps instead consider leaving Britain.”
Indeed! Thankfully, that’s not a choice I personally have to make (having left Britain over 30 years ago – for other, totally personal, reasons). But it does sum up perfectly how I see it.
I saw this video in my quest for quality remain info, but he skips right over TTIP, TiSA and ISDS. which are the most damaging parts of joining Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gm1xZh5fqY8
Trump is, in a sense, an illusion: you might dismiss and even defeat the man himself, but his lies go on and on; for they are not ‘his’ lies but a sea of deceptions and delusions and distortions of the news, eagerly served by the media and eagerly consumed by an electorate that neither cares nor can tell.
Fox news, Faux news, post-truth politics, the illusions of the demagogue, distorted perspectives and a Trump l’oeil picture of the world: that is their election, and our referendum.
‘Trump l’oeil picture of the world’ -that made me laugh! But seriously, they all ‘Trompe l’oeil’. The disgusting wretch Clinton will no doubt be hailed as the ‘first woman blah…blah…glass ceiling broken…blah…blah’. Just as Obama…’first black….blah….blah’ as if this really meant anything in terms of the reality on the ground.
Mr. Trump is of recent German-Scottish ancestry, perhaps he could be persuaded to take the top EU job?
The only way to exit Brexit is probably to propose, as one poster (Matt Usselmann) already has, that Cameron set up a Brexit Commission to examine the method and system of Brexit and make every endeavour to kick the idea into the long grass – but I think it’s also a long shot. Otherwise a Bill would have to be passed through Parliament somehow. But with a clear majority of MPs in the remain camp, especially if the Brexit referendum majority is slim, that may not be an easy task.
Add that to the nightmare consequences for the UK outlined in Michael Dougan’s lecture linked above’ ‘Remain’ is not just a sentiment it is also a very practical necessity. We will otherwise have wasted the last 40 years going up an alley, which will have deemed to be blind, and – it hardly bears thinking about – probably double that coming back out of it again.
And over the water if the Republicans dump Trump then the advantage for the world is that neither Trump nor any other republican is likely to be elected. But dumping would be difficult I’d have thought and might well involve new Presidential Primaries… Trump l’oeil indeed!
I think something like a Brexit commission might be possible too.
What Cameron would have to do is avoid triggering Article 50, and instead set up a new referendum asking the public what the new trade agreements should look like. The options could be:
1. WTO
2. EEA (as per Norway)
3. EU (as currently)
4. TTIP or other new US-based framework
There would then be months of debate, hopefully of a higher quality than the debate over the last month or so.
The only problem (other than the market crashing due to the uncertainty) is that in offering a referendum, Cameron would again be delegating his job as PM to the general public. This is one of many reasons that referendums are usually bad ideas in the first place. Perhaps Cameron can’t survive the creation of a third referendum.
It’s unlikely that Cameron’s lack of support would arise in Parliament though. Most MPs are opposed to Brexit, and I expect would prefer to avoid or delay Article 50. Opposition could instead arise within Cameron’s own party. It could also arise among English Nationalists, who I think are likely to riot if a Leave vote is carried and they don’t get what they were promised. There’s potential for things to get very ugly indeed. Especially since what’s been promised by the Leave camp isn’t actually deliverable.
This is a bit of a red herring. “We can’t exit Brexit”. True, but if we Remain we are also stuck with it. I think most people realize that “the economy” does not constitute the main argument because whatever growth we have is simply channelled into more wealth for those who already have it. Europe subscribes to this neoliberalism and we would have to if we stay. If we Leave, we will have the opportunity, Corbyn willing, to change this immoral state of affairs.
I hate to say it, but that is pretty misguided thinking
The idea that we become a free player ignores the real world we live in
I agree, – just look at the legal and regulatory mess we’d be in the minute we leave – as outlined in the excellent lecture by Law Professor Michael Dougan! We’ll be channelling all our resources into untangling something we’ve been embedded with for more than 40 years. Meanwhile the foodbanks remain.
I never said we would become a free player and I do not ignore the world we live in. I wish to change it, simply by making wealthy rentiers pay more tax.
Which is the last thing that will happen if we leave
David, the best I can do to answer your comment is to refer you to the FB lecture noted above by 2 or 3 other contributors here given by Prof Michael Duggan. It is given by somebody who is an expert on the EU, and is not offering an opinion, but facts.
Please watch it, before you vote.
Paul Mason nails it rather well today: there’s a large section of the population that has been persuaded on a limbic level that an ‘Out” vote is somehow a vote against the establishment. The fact that Johnson, Farage and Gove could not be more integral to the establishment has passed them by. The result may well be a government a lot further to the right than any that might previously have been electable:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/brexit-fake-revolt-eu-working-class-culture-hijacked-help-elite
Yes, he does, this is why I will abstain as I believe the choice available is fake and fraudulent in nature.
Paul’s final comment sums it up well:
“Once the vote is over, it will be the rightwing Tories in control. Ask Ukip; ask Boris Johnson: will Brexit guarantee a rise in wages, a cap on rents, a fall in NHS waiting times or class sizes? Ask the leave camp to put targets on these things — not for the long term, but within 12-18 months. They can’t.”
I see this ‘appropriation ‘ and mischannelling of discontent a continuation of the Tories’ playing of hard-pressed in work against hard-pressed out of work and against a third group, the ill/disabled. They succeeded because the Left was nowhere and bound and gagged by Overton Window syndrome. Anger has to go somewhere so they have invented the cliched decoy of immigration. hate something, hate the other – but never lookat the root causes-the motto of those in power. Shame, Shame and more shame.
Simon
Please do not sit on the fence on this one.
The fence is rickety, wafer thin and you may find yourself coming down on a side that you eventually want no part in.
Whatever you choose, resolve to address your other concerns within the path you have chosen using the values you have extolled on this blog (for which I am broadly in agreement with and admire). But please – do not be passive.
Whatever path is chosen on Thursday will still needs people of a moral calibre and a strong sense of justice to have an input because basically the people in charge of either outcomes after 23rd June do not carry those values at all.
Do not be a leaf in the wind.
PSR,
Thank you for your words, your posts have helped me think through the issue which I appreciate very much – after much consideration of your points and that of Richard’s and others I decided I would ‘Actively’ abstain. By this I mean: I will go into the voting booth with a short message and a pritt stick to attach it to the voting slip and will make it clear that I will not be bullied by an opressive neo-liberal one -party state into voting where we are presented with two evils. I feel personally offended that I am being coerced into such a faux choice -and will therefore not vote for either side. Through it’s economic policies, the EU/ECB/IMF has given succour to Fascism and vile nationalism (Right groups far exceed the Left in number) and the Brexit campaign here is beyond words to describe its disgusting nature-with a Remain side utterly failing to delineate what the real issues are and appealing to self-interest.
I don’t believe I am being ‘passive’ by doing this: the message will be read by one person for sure and that person may mention it to others. A minute ripple perhaps.
I’m not a leaf in the wind, I will not be blown around by these forces at all. I have fought the vile bastards we have in power over the last five years with all my strength (despite periods of poor health) and will carry on fighting as Blake put it: ‘I will not cease from mental fight.’
Thanks for your words and support PSR – that means a lot in these times.
John Hilary has said that he has tried for twenty years to get changes to EU laws. He says it is very difficult and can see no point in staying. He agrees that the Tories could get worse, but as a sovereign state we can get rid of them.
Just another view…. I am finding this tough.
https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search;_ylt=A0LEV72JFGhXq3MAxQ0PxQt.;_ylc=X1MDMjExNDcwMDU1OQRfcgMyBGZyA3locy1hZGstYWRrX3NibnQEZ3ByaWQDOGJraFhQdmtTU3kubC5kRi5uSEtMQQRuX3JzbHQDMARuX3N1Z2cDMTAEb3JpZ2luA3NlYXJjaC55YWhvby5jb20EcG9zAzAEcHFzdHIDBHBxc3RybAMEcXN0cmwDMTgEcXVlcnkDam9obiUyMGhpbGFyeSUyMGV1BHRfc3RtcAMxNDY2NDM4ODQ1?p=john+hilary+eu&fr2=sb-top-search&hspart=adk&hsimp=yhs-adk_sbnt¶m1=20160107¶m2=cf3020f5-2135-4b46-8a5d-40bb0e660bf2¶m3=recipes_appfocus11_1.16~GB~appfocus11¶m4=google~chrome&type=appfocus11_re_cr
Link is wrong – right one here –
https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search;_ylt=A0LEV72JFGhXq3MAxQ0PxQt.;_ylc=X1MDMjExNDcwMDU1OQRfcgMyBGZyA3locy1hZGstYWRrX3NibnQEZ3ByaWQDQUdjNnJhS2tTcld6MzlOeFZURDNYQQRuX3JzbHQDMARuX3N1Z2cDMTAEb3JpZ2luA3NlYXJjaC55YWhvby5jb20EcG9zAzAEcHFzdHIDBHBxc3RybAMEcXN0cmwDMTgEcXVlcnkDam9obiUyMGhpbGFyeSUyMGV1BHRfc3RtcAMxNDY2NDM5MzEz?p=john+hilary+eu&fr2=sb-top-search&hspart=adk&hsimp=yhs-adk_sbnt¶m1=20160107¶m2=cf3020f5-2135-4b46-8a5d-40bb0e660bf2¶m3=recipes_appfocus11_1.16~GB~appfocus11¶m4=google~chrome&type=appfocus11_re_cr
And I have succeeded in changing EU law
So we think differently
Crikey Sandra is that a link or the human Genome code?
SIMON –
If Richard will allow it I will send it again I found a better link.
John Hilary is the Director of War On Want and an academic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuOanS9JXrs
He’s also wrong on this, as I have consistently noted
As the Tax Justice Network has noted, if you bleieve in tax justice, and that is a major War on Want issue, then the only choice is Remain
Just as you think there’s not much more to be said, along comes another ‘blog’ adding more substance to the argument. J K Rowling has posted this on her website. In my browser it’s not as legible as it should be (I think it may be the site designer’s fault) but it’s worth reading, not least because she carries considerable influence among her millions of fans who, presumably, are on the younger end of the age-scale, albeit I’m at the other extremity! http://www.jkrowling.com/en_GB/#/timeline/on-monsters-villains-and-the-EU-referendum. Just sharing.
I think it depends on if you think Labour can be elected in 2020.
It will take three years to try and get out of the EU – 1st Jul 2019 is the pencilled in date when the new EU parliament takes its seats. Until then the EU treaty is in place. Then the Tories face an election the year after.
The terms of exit are not relevant to the future of the UK – unless you subscribe to the neoliberal economic theory that underpins the ‘export led’ growth mantra.
Any future UK government can simply tear it up if it wants to.
In the meantime the Left can set its stall out for an EU free shift towards public investment and jobs-for-all – funded directly from the newly freed up Bank of England.
As to idealism, it’s hard enough battling against the forces of corporatism within one country. No chance with 28.
Those who think they can change the EU from within are misleading themselves. It has neoliberalism written into the treaty. It’s time to start asking yourself Richard if you’re actually more interested in the process of struggle than actually achieving real change. Because your life is campaigning.
With the greatest of respect, if you really think I am not about effecting change then I have no interest in reading any more of the nonsense you have offered over a long period
You are the second long term contributor to hit the spam list today
I think Bob is coming from an MMT perspective and the view of leading MMT ers like Bill Mitchell is to leave because of the sovereign money issue which is hobbled by the treaties.
Steve Keen (from related perspective ) has also indicated leave as the right choice.
Both antipodeans a good economists but they fail to realise that the OUT vote is dominated by some of the most corporatist/rentier charlatans on the planet making a Leave vote on economic grounds a meaningless decision.
I’m not sure why Bill and Steve are saying this other than from a purist academic angle (which is correct in itself) but they seem to have forgotten that people live here and will get absolutely hammered by ‘internal devaluation’ and benefit cuts combined with more sell offs of what is left of public assets.
So the choice is virtually Hobson’s -it’s a question of choosing which bunch of shysters and rentier toadies are less malevolent. It’s not a choice I’m prepared to make as I will indicate on my voting slip on Thursday.
I think you are being too sensitive in your response to Bob. Firstly, many of us agree with the gist of his main argument. Secondly, it does no harm when campaigning, working for a charity, etc., to pause and reflect on whether one is heading in the right direction. Much of your campaigning is about corporation tax, which only accounts for eight percent of government revenue.
You clearly have not read most of my work
Presumably, Richard, you approve of the VAT that Europe insists has to be paid by the young unemployed or those on zero hour contracts when they need a pair of shoes.
Yes, I do
The most progressive countries in the world – in Scandinavia – charge such VAT
And provide benefits to make sure it can be paid, which is the right answer
If your argument is fatuous as this then candidly you can’t see the wood for a twig
We have managed without VAT in the past. We had purchase tax, which was rightly applied at a higher rate on goods perceived to be luxuries. Relying on the benefits system to ameliorate the effects of direct taxes is not the right answer because it will not stop the continuing rise in inequality. But I am a gentleman and will refrain from calling your argument fatuous.
I am a g ntleman
Your argument is fatuous
My answer is based on Scandinavia
It works
All you have is nostalgia for a hopeless tax no one in the world would now use
And with respect, and I know this is very unfashionable, but I do have some idea of what I am talking about
I wonder how long the UK will continue to enjoy our unique zero rated VAT rates if we Remain?
http://www.vatlive.com/vat-rates/european-vat-rates/eu-vat-rates/
There have been rumblings for decades
I think it unlikely it will happen if we Remain
Cadbury moved factory to Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved to Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers pension funds.
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army’s new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan.
Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone to Poland with EU grant, once employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone to far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys and models now gone from UK along with the patents all with with EU grants.
Gillette gone to eastern Europe with EU grant.
Texas Instruments Greenock gone to Germany with EU grant.
Indesit at Bodelwyddan Wales gone with EU grant.
Sekisui Alveo said production at its Merthyr Tydfil Industrial Park foam plant will relocate production to Roermond in the Netherlands, with EU funding.
Hoover Merthyr factory moved out of UK to Czech Republic and the Far East by Italian company Candy with EU backing.
ICI integration into Holland’s AkzoNobel with EU bank loan and within days of the merger, several factories in the UK, were closed, eliminating 3,500 jobs
Boots sold to Italians Stefano Pessina who have based their HQ in Switzerland to avoid tax to the tune of £80 million a year, using an EU loan for the purchase.
JDS Uniphase run by two Dutch men, bought up companies in the UK with £20 million in EU ‘regeneration’ grants, created a pollution nightmare and just closed it all down leaving 1,200 out of work and an environmental clean-up paid for by the UK tax-payer. They also raided the pension fund and drained it dry.
UK airports are owned by a Spanish company.
Scottish Power is owned by a Spanish company.
Most London buses are run by Spanish and German companies.
The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station to be built by French company EDF, part owned by the French government, using cheap Chinese steel that has catastrophically failed in other nuclear installations. Now EDF say the costs will be double or more and it will be very late even if it does come online.
Swindon was once our producer of rail locomotives and rolling stock. Not any more, it’s Bombardier in Derby and due to their losses in the aviation market, that could see the end of the British railways manufacturing altogether even though Bombardier had EU grants to keep Derby going which they diverted to their loss-making aviation side in Canada.
39% of British invention patents have been passed to foreign companies, many of them in the EU
The Mini cars that Cameron stood in front of as an example of British engineering, are built by BMW mostly in Holland and Austria. His campaign bus was made in Germany even though we have Plaxton, Optare, Bluebird, Dennis etc., in the UK. The bicycle for the Greens was made in the far east, not by Raleigh UK but then they are probably going to move to the Netherlands too as they have said recently.
And you think us leaving will improve that?
How, precisely?
Or are you just whining?
I think you have some sound ideas on taxation, so I have read your blog for a while. It has become apparent that you are simply an egomaniac, lapping up the praise heaped upon you by sycophants. Sometimes, if anyone presents an alternate view, you present an argument, but usually you just let the thread die or tell them they don’t know what they are talking about. Please spam me.
I am sure that in due course I will spam you, precisely because you are not trying to contribute to debate, which is the reason why others fall by the way side
I have a choice of what to do with my time. I could spend it forever engaging with trolls
Or I can do research and write with the intention of changing things for the better. In the sense that it requires an absurd sense of self confidence for anyone to think they can change things then of course you are right: if that is your definition of an egomanaic then I am just that. All I have discovered is that by working on these issues I can have some small influence and that makes it worthwhile.
What I have also discovered is that this is hard work and that there are many – you obviously being one of them – who would like to waste my time with the aim of making sure I do not succeed.
Engaging this once to explain why I will spam you is appropriate. Thereafter you’re winning. So you won’t get the chance. I have much better things to do than address your vanity.