These are the latest independent forecasts for the UK economy as summarised by HM Treasury and just published:
Let me speculate on at least three things these do not properly reflect. The first is the Russian economic crisis. The second is the falling oil price. The third is the impact of Greek default. If you wished to add a fourth there is the current drop in UK house prices, but that would just be churlish. Whilst almost inevitable interest rate rises are just a real game changer.
All have the potential to seriously impact UK GDP growth in 2015 and the oil price will pull inflation down.
Inflation of 1% looks likely at most in 2015 to me.
And GDP growth of 2.5% looks wildly optimistic.
Yes: I know I'm being bearish, but I think that's quite reasonable. Make the most of this whilst you can:
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Yes, but how does the UK outlook compare to the rest of the Europe/the world?
Better than most
Grim nonetheless
That was the point of what I was saying
“Only those educated in the underpinnings of shadow banking will understand the whole thing is a charade designed to hide the complete centralization of sovereign economic governance into the hands of the globalists, using the IMF and BIS as “fiscal heroes,” saving the world from a state of economic destruction the elites themselves secretly created”
http://www.alt-market.com/articles/2444-imf-now-ready-to-slam-the-door-on-the-us-and-the-dollar
Junk bonds, speculative derivatives, over-leveraged, zero interest rates from the central banks allowing the big banks to casino type borrowing with no substance behind them when it all goes belly up, which it will, and worse then 2008.
“The UK Oil Industry Is “Close To Collapse”:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-18/its-huge-crisis-uk-oil-industry-close-collapse-people-are-being-laid
http://www.theautomaticearth.com/the-biggest-economic-story-going-into-2015-is-not-oil/
Thanks
Worrying, I agree
So – basically we are being set up again to have another 2008 but possibly worse. The banks have not changed. Finance has not changed. This is because (tacitly) they know they will be bailed out yet again. And so another transfer of wealth from rich to poor will take place.
Maybe this is what needs to happen – one final meltdown to end them all – the ‘punctuation’ that will change the path dependency in the financial sector and maybe prick and pop the neo-lib bubble forever. Having said that, as a Father of two and with a 6 years on my mortgage I hope that I (and many others) can get through it somehow.
Maybe in this country, the Government stakes in RBS and Lloyds may help them to keep the money it prints flowing if there is another crash? Best not cash in just yet?
But this is where a government needs to be as you say ‘courageous’ – it needs to start putting its feet down and setting some limits on markets. That would be my wish for the new year.
As an atheist, you know that things are potentially really bad when you start wishing (praying?) for better things to happen because your faith in people and the institutions meant to look after them is waning.
The “next one” is not one that can be “bailed out”.
The next one is a near-thousand-trillion dollar crash. Unsurvivable.
And it does not matter how large the economy is. Or small.
It is [increasingly] looking to be an extinction-level event that may well trigger global warfare.
Civilisation is quite fragile.