The EU Code of Conduct on Business Taxation group met in Brussels this week to consider the measures Jersey and the Isle of Man are proposing to take to make their tax systems compliant with EU requirements following their being ruled unacceptable last year.

I will not relate the story of that unacceptability at length: suffice to say that the EU deemed that the corporation tax systems of the islands failed three of the five code requirements.

Removing what might be called the ‘deemed distribution’ requirements (ARI in the Isle of Man) was hoped by the islands to be enough to get round the problem although I had suggested a third problem remained.

Well, as it turned out the EU has accepted the abolition of these provisions subject to some pretty significant assurances, and with a sting in the tail (of which more in a moment). The condition is that deemed distribution is not reintroduced using general anti-avoidance legislation. It won’t be, the islands say. Now I have seen documents presented to the meeting via my usual sources in Europe I note that Wendy Martin for Jersey said, for example:

In summary, the general anti-avoidance rule cannot in our view replicate the effects of the deemed distribution and attribution rules. It cannot apply in such a way as to result in the profits of a company being taxed in the hands of the shareholder in the absence of a properly taxable dividend. It also cannot apply in any circumstances other than in respect of highly artificial and non-commercial transactions.

Which curiously gives carte blanche licence to Jersey local people to use companies to avoid tax, something Colin Powell said they could not afford to do, which is why he was not worried about it:

Outside the finance industry many general traders are branches or subsidiaries of UK companies and so are not affected by the removal of these provisions. Local traders face significant competition from external suppliers and even when their profits were subject to tax at 20% (prior to the introduction of zero/ten) the tax revenues generated were a relatively small proportion of the total. Even absent the low investment income climate that currently exists and which might otherwise provide an alternative source of income, many of the local traders rely on the income from their businesses as the main or sole source of funding. It is likely therefore that even if they did incorporate their businesses they would need to extract the profits in the form of a salary or a dividend.

It’s an odd idea that Jersey says locals simply can’t afford tax avoidance, and an indictnment of the contempt that Jersey offcials hold for the local economy that they can structure their argument in that way.

Despite which Wendy Martin reognised that if any could manage it the opportunities were now legion to do so:

Taking this example further, say the individual built up substantial profit in the company over a number of years and then decided he no longer wanted to run the business. He sells the company on an arms length basis for a profit. There is no capital gains tax in Jersey and so that disposal would be tax free. Effectively the profits that arose in that company would not be subject to tax.

This transaction could not be challenged under the general anti-avoidance provision on the basis that it is a commercial transaction. The main purpose of the transaction, that is the sale of the company, is for the individual to exit from the business and to make a profit – it is not for the avoidance of tax.

In other words, Jersey admits that there is a masive loophole in their tax system now because of the absence of a capital gains tax.

Which is where they and the Isle of Man are now to suffer the sting in the tail – which is that I am told that the EU will be demanding a capital gains tax of them - because its absence now makes their system on-standard in itself.

That should ‘go down well’ in St Helier and Douglas.

And candidly I really do hope they do this to Jersey and the Isle of Man – because remember they both remain out on a limb with these tax systems which have been, I think it fair to say, grudgingly approved. And Jersey remain out on a limb on other issues too – like automatic information exchange under the European Union Savings Tax Directive.

But EU attention might move elsewhere for a moment for what, I might hear you say,  of St Peter Port? Well, the EU’s now turning its eyes their way and is asking for evidence of what they’re going to do, which so far seems to be ‘not a lot’.

 

Gillian Tett has written the following in the FT this morning:

The past three decades of financial history are sometimes described as a period when free market ideologies ruled, but they might equally be christened the era of “banker hubris”. Never mind financiers reaped fat bonuses; what was striking was that everyone assumed finance should be left in financiers’ hands. The bankers had moral legitimacy since they seemed the only people wise enough to understand money.

Now, of course, the pendulum has violently swung: as the crisis has unfolded, the status of bankers has crumbled, along with the idea that finance should be left in their hands alone. Instead, government officials are producing new rules to craft finance and monitor those bankers. It is bureaucrats, in other words, who now carry moral legitimacy; and the weight of public expectations.

This swing is not surprising; banker hubris was costly. But an age of bureaucrat hubris creates new risks.

It’s almost unimaginable that someone can offer this as serious commentary.

So far no banker has suffered any regulatory consequence of the crash.

The Vickers report will have no impact until 2019. Then much of it will be self regulation in very many ways.

The FSA reform, folding it into the Bank of England, is mere gesturing.

Basel III is a decision deferred.

Project Merlin is a joke.

Bankers’ bonuses are unfettered.

The nationalised banks continue as if they have complete contempt for their owners.

Bob Diamond has declared remorse over.

Please tell us Gillian Tett where the regulation is coming from, because right now I’m having real problems spotting it.

But I can sure as heck spot failing banks, bonuses, hubris and another consequential financial crisis. And an apologist for the banks.

 

I have given much attention to the Mirrlees review by the Institute for Fiscal Studies in the past - just look here and take your pick.

Now they have published their final report.

I know the world bows down to the IFS – but I don’t. And that’s because the whole of this review is a coordinated attack on the ordinary people of the UK and as such is shameless promotion of the interests of the elite that neoliberal economics serves.

Take some examples:

- This morning’s headline that 50p tax does not work, when there is no evidence to prove that case: this is just far right promotion of the Laffer curve by Mirrlees

- The promotion of much higher VAT

- The suggestion that corporation tax should be abolished to be replaced by yet mo0re VAT

- The suggestion that taxes on savings should be reduced

- The idea that NIC should be abolished shifting the burden from employer to employee

And on, and on.

This is the tax agenda of the Washington Consensus played out for adoption in the UK, with the inevitable, intended and elite driven intent of shifting tax from profit onto labour, increasing division in society, promoting tax haven activity and ensuring greater inequality.

Now it’s not difficult to work out where this drive comes from. For all practical purposes on this issue the Institute for Fiscal Studies overlaps heavily with the Oxford Centre for Business Taxation.

That centre has close ties with the FTSE 100 group – who sponsored it.

Members of staff at that centre happily endorse tax haven activity whilst turning a blind eye to its consequences, the evidence of which they deny.

And they always take a profoundly neoliberal line believing on all occasions that the free market works (although there’s little evidence in most cases that they’ve been willing to trust their fortunes to it – always a paradox at the core of the thinking of such places).

So of course they promote taxes that deliver exactly what neoliberal thinking wants - which is a shift of returns from labour to capital.

And they wrap it up as if it has ‘objective’ status. Don’t be deceived: this is blatant politicking of the worst sort lacking all elements of objectivity and designed solely to serve the goal of increasing inequality in society.

At which point I guess I have to give credit where it is due: given that this is what they want to do their recommendations will certainly deliver what they want.

 

Is today crunch time?

Nothing tried so far to tackle the Euro debt crisis has worked.

Austerity is simply like signing an economic suicide note.

Expecting repayment of much of the debt that has been incurred is wholly unrealistic.

There is no chance – as Germans seem to think possible – of us all becoming Germany’s to repay the debt: we can’t all be next exporters and lenders: that is an accounting impossibility.

The result is that the political model for a solution (austerity) has failed.

And the banking model (repayment) has failed.

And the German model is based on a fallacy.

We face the need for Jubilee. The Oxford dictionary defines this as:

a special anniversary of an event, esp. one celebrating twenty-five or fifty years of a reign or activity : [as adj. ] jubilee celebrations.

• Judaism (in Jewish history) a year of emancipation and restoration, celebrated every fifty years.

• (in full Jubilee Year) a period of remission from the penal consequences of sin, granted by the Roman Catholic Church under certain conditions for a year, usually at intervals of twenty-five years.

We need emancipation from debt and that is precisely what in the Judeo-Christian tradition Jubilee means.

Let’s not agonise for a moment about why we have debt: errors have been made. We know that. By governments, by bankers, by economists, by those who have blindly followed them. But this is not the time for blame. This is the time for atonement: of reconciliation to the fact that those errors have been made and common acceptance that unless action is taken to address the consequences then the impact of past mistakes will haunt us for time to come.

Germany has the capacity to forgive, much as we forgave it much. None of this is possible unless they’re willing to do so. But they are not alone.

But in the act of forgiveness there has also to be new hope. If we can resolve our debt crisis we can enter a new era; nothing less than a new economic paradigm I suspect. In that there can be hope. And I’m equally well aware, there could be despair.

I do know that whatever happens the existing order of ownership, of wealth and power is unsustainable: that is clearly what this crisis is about. The claims of one person on another, of one group on another, of one nation on another; all those are failing. That is what debt failure is. As a result I am not being apocalyptic, I am just stating what is true.

And yet hanging on to what has failed is the inevitable human condition.

Have we the politicians who can let go and build afresh?

Can we declare Jubilee?

Can we reorder around a new vision of what releases all that is good in humanity to achieve that which we’re really capable of?

Those are questions, if not for today then for a day sometime soon.

They don’t happen every day. They happen, we hope, only rarely in a  lifetime. But this is such a time.

I don’t know the answers.

I do have hope.

 

There’s been a lot of comment today on the need for a new round of quantitative easing. Adam Posen and David Blanchflower are calling for it: I have very little doubt it will happen.

But that’s not my point in writing this blog. I believe that so high is the risk of another bank collapse soon that the Bank of England has a short term duty to do something much more practical, which is to get the real printing presses rolling very fast to create an awful lot (I mean billions upon billions of it).

Why? Well, as I’ve explained over the last couple of days I think another bank bail out is likely to be required soon and I don’t just mean within eight years, I mean imminently. We have no idea if banks can survive a Greek default (and those that will follow) in which case we have a duty to ensure that money can still change hands.

That is only possible if all those who want cash can have cash.

I know that sounds extreme: I know it sounds like Weimar Germany; I know many don’t want to embrace the possibility that we could see a total loss of faith in banks but I’m being realistic. This government, any government, has a duty to ensure that people can lay claim to their own cash and make payments with it. Unless that cash is available on demand at banks that confidence will not be available.

So sure, consider QE.

But print some of the real stuff – and in high denominations – too. It may be vital to keeping this economy moving.

And if it’s a false alarm, store it: it will all get used eventually.

 

I have a very strong feeling that George Osborne is ready made to be cast in a remake of this where Bank Control issues the instructions and Major George replies ‘There’s nothing I can do’.

I also rather like this version – never heard it before!

 

If you listened to UK politicians yesterday you would think the banking crisis was solved. 300 odd pages of report from John Vickers and a promise to implement plans after the effective careers of all currently involved in politics and banking are over and apparently the problem is solved.

With respect to all in question, no it isn’t.

Robert Reich, a former US Labor Secretary tweeted overnight:

50% probability Greek default. US banks counter-party debt huge. Prepare for another Lehman Brothers. Second big bank bailout on the way?

I’d argue on two counts. Greek default is inevitable. It’s disorderly default he’s referring to, I think. And there’s no question mark at the end: that’s also inevitable.

As the Guardian has said in an editorial on Vickers this morning:

The careful cost-benefit terms in which .. concession[s] to the bankers [are] justified stir deeper questions. The commission has measured every dimension of finance’s problems, but the crisis has bent the yardsticks. They talk of removing subsidies so risk can return to a market price, and yet investment risks are not currently priced by reason but by depressed animal spirits. There are some really bold ideas for breaking from the slump, such as a national investment bank to put idle hands and idle money to productive work. The commission, however, opted to stick within the conventional wisdom, stating blithely on page one that it is never for the state but for “the private sector disciplined by market forces” to make investment decisions. But after all that has happened, it is not longer good enough to hold the old truths to be self-evident.

I agree: on blackboards in economics seminars markets great make decisions. In practice they’re made up of people with no magic power and no greater ability to know what to do than the state. Worse though, because they think they are superior they pay themselves more and still, as we’ve seen, get it spectacularly wrong.

All of which is why I argued yesterday that the state has to be ready now for another failure by bankers, as it is inevitable.

Heading for US meltdown

 USA  Comments Off
Sep 132011
 

From the FT on the US Republican candidate debate last night:

The debate on Monday evening, held in Tampa, Florida, was co-hosted by CNN and the Tea Party Express, an umbrella organisation for the rightwing movement, bringing it firmly into the political mainstream ahead of next year’s presidential election.

Tea Party Express co-chairman Amy Kremer told the audience ahead of the debate: “We are going to choose the next Republican nominee for president, not the Republican party.”

Ms Kremer said the Tea Party was looking for a “true constitutional conservative”.

I believe them.

I just hope there are enough sane Americans left to defeat them.

 

Dave Hartnett told the Treasury Select Committee yesterday:

All our legal advice is that winning in the Court of Appeal may not be enough for us to take a penalty

How nice for all those large companies who deliberately get that far.

And how galling for all small businesses who pay penalties on innocent errors to HMRC.

And for the record – I do not think penalties are due on innocent errors and I do think they happen and far too rarely do HMRC admit that fact.

Tax justice requires equal treatment for all.

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