The budget – first reactions

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One advantage of being of a certain age (and I happened to hit 49 today) is that you can recall a fair number of budgets. Sad it might be, but I've been doing them since Dennis Healey was in office in the 70s, and can recall Antony Barber before that (even Roy Jenkins at a push - my interest in this game started young).

So let me provide an immediate reaction to this Budget which had a number of surprises, not least being a cut in income tax base rate to 20% and Corporation Tax to 28% plus major innovation on small business tax.

Actually, NIC has gone up on high earners - a point most have missed. hat's because the top band has been increased to over £43,000. And the 10p rate of tax has gone - with compensations for the poorest. In combination there are few wins for the better off in here -although the system is definitely more logical as a result, which should appease the flat taxers.

Capital allowances for business were not, I suspect made more generous, except for the very smallest enterprises, where there's is now virtually a flat tax. Otherwise their value has been reduced to pay for a 28% corporation tax rate, a cut of 2%. And the small business tax rate rise covers its additional tax saving on investment.

The reality is this: it looks like Gordon Brown has cut tax just as Nigel Lawson seemed to do in 1987. Actually, I think he may well have increased it, as Lawson did. But it's the appearance that matters to most people - even business if my recent contact with the larger end of it is o be believed.

In that sense this is a coup - a tax cut that raises revenue. It's a peculiar form of the Laffer curve.

PS The Budget reports confirm I'm right - see pages 208 and 209 here. Overall it's shown to be neutral. The NIC rise is big - and is a welcome redistribution, but only from those on middle income to those on the lowest. The wealthiest escape any impact.


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