As a Guardian newsletter has noted this morning:
The former US president, Donald Trump, was fined $9,000 for violating a gag order designed to protect participants in his current criminal trial from his abuse. A New York judge imposed the maximum financial penalty allowed under state law.
The judge has threatened time in jail if he breaks the order. Rather quietly, the tweets to which the judge objected were removed yesterday, presumably at the insistence of Trump's legal team.
However, what chance is there that Trump will comply with the order? I suspect it very low.
I also suspect that Trump relishes the prospect of jail time for breaking this order. After all, this will just play to has fascist demand that the judiciary be brought under his control when he is President again, precisely so that he can determine not just what the law might be, but also who might be guilty or innocent of breaking it.
As Heather Cox Richardson notes in her Letter from an American this morning, there is no doubt that this is part of Trump's plan for his Presidency, and that the intention is fascist is beyond doubt. That plan challenges one of the fundamental principles underpinning all liberal democracies, including that of the USA, but that is what Trump wants to do. His aim is to destroy democracy.
The judge in New York is right to fine Trump.
He would be right to imprison him if he breaks the order.
But do not doubt that millions of Americans will support Trump's right to treat the law with contempt.
We just have to hope that more millions will be warned as to intentions by his so very obviously utterly unreasonable threats and actions.
What we cannot doubt is that the USA as we have known it is tottering on the verge of becoming a fascist state.
I admit, I always thought that possible. I also never thought it would happen. Now, I am not so sure.
We should be worried.
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USA has always been imperialist, but this has been tempered by the Rule of Law. Trump started to change all that in his presidency, and to some extent poisoned Biden’s tenure (e.g. Supreme Court appointments). I am not sure the USA will become a fascist state, assuming Trump wins – I suspect a second Civil War will break out with the West and East coasts versus the centre. Trump has alienated many in the military and veterans by calling them cowards and I suspect he has more opposition that we in the UK think. However, the damage he could wreak in the first day could be immense.
Trump uses politics as a narcissist uses a mirror. To exalt his ego.
I have no doubt he has a personality disorder. His position enables much of American society to project and, in their eyes legitimise, the dark aspects of American society.
Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate is an alternative to Trump or Biden but probably too alternative for mainstream America… but in a real 3 way battle you never know.
Challenging the Duopoly: Jill Stein on Why She’s Running for US President as Green Party Candidate
interview with Radhike Desai and Michael Hudson:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04/challenging-the-duopoly-jill-stein-on-why-shes-running-for-us-president-as-green-party-candidate.html
Here’s that very same Jill Stein being specifically picked out at a recent protest and arrested, reminding me of the saying “For my friends, the best of everything, for my enemies, the law.” She’s clearly upset TPTB, that’s evident https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScT39V4oZ6g
Sure there are a lot of “red-necks” in the United States just as there are in other countries including the United Kingdom but I don’t think things are so desperate economically that it will result in Trump’s return to office. The US economy is one of the fastest growing economies of the major economies thanks to the IRA Act. Trump’s achievements in office were minimal apart from delivering major tax cuts for wealthy!
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/
I was also surprised by Lichtman’s confidence. Lots of Americans blame Biden for rising prices and compare now with when Trump was in office. Donald did very little for the ‘little guy’ but they over look it.
The prices are due to a lot of profiteering as Robert Reich has pointed out plus the Fed bumping up interest rates-maybe similar to the Bank of England.
Biden’s candidature is a mistake in my view.
There would seem to be grounds for some hope: this trial exposes Trump in ways that Trump’s supporters have not seen because Fox News etc haven’t (properly) covered it. The opinion of a judge may sway some of his base. Indeed, MAGA don’t seem to have been showing up to watch their dear leader in any numbers.
My information comes from my “off the top of my head” recall of The Young Turks so is necessarily limited.
I suggest that Trump is part of a somewhat bigger picture, & that bigger picture is neo-liberalism which is fundamentally anti-democratic (which fits in nicely with the Trump trajectory). This article from the DailyKos is worth a read wrt the US Supreme Court (& highly relevant to current developments):
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/26/2237429/-Is-SCOTUS-in-on-the-Coup-and-Trying-to-End-American-Democracy
Note the comment about shrinking the middle classes & expanding the “lumpen proletariat”. This is Jack London/Iron Heel territory, but it is the sort of direction one would head in if you want to lock-in neo-liberalism. Both US parties are neo-liberal ditto in the UK (although with the failure of some neo-lib proejcts – the various monopolies – some gaps are opening up. Doubtless these will be explained away.
On a more positive note, on this May Day, this links to a conversation with an ex-US military chap. Very much “the right stuff” (as a cursory glance at his bio will show) very much anti-Republican/Demcorcat and pro-democracy. If he is even part way representative of US military views, there might be hope yet for the USA.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQYxh-rfVKw
Trump plans to use the miltary to round up 11 million ‘aliens’
Will they obey orders? I am not sure…
The part Trumps forget is: What will happen when the dog catches the car?
The USA does NOT have incarceration space for 11 million ‘aliens’. Many of theses 11 million ‘aliens’ have been working and paying US taxes for years. Their children are US citizens and a good percentage own homes.
Any sane person knows that
Are 30% of US citizens sane?
Richard,
No! They are MAGAts who believe the 11 million “aliens” have stolen something from them.
All the British cousins of this USA 30% voted for BREXIT so NHS funding could be increased by 375 million BPS a week instead of being sent to the EU and to stop” Freedom of Movement” between Turkey and the UK.
There are many insane in the UK too! LOL! LOL!
Thank you, Richard.
I don’t disagree and caveat that Biden, responsible for piloting Clinton’s law and order bill as Senate Justice Committee chairman, is not much better.
The crackdown on university protests reminds me of what Obama did to Occupy Wall Street and its sister movements. As Obama told Wall Street CEOs at a White House summit in 2009, “I’m the only person between you and pitchforks.” At that meeting, he also agreed to avoid “compensation reform”.
A major problem trying to understand America is that all information has to pass through the double filter of the US media and the UK media.
So when Allan Lichtman, the US professor who has predicted the last 9 out of 10 US presidential elections correctly, says that unless something major changes Biden will win, it appears to be a surprise.
Like many of the claims made by the Trump campaign, such as Jail time for Trump being a a vote winner for him, spreading the idea that Trump is a runaway favourite mostly looks like the usual self-serving bullshit.
If Trump wins then on past evidence, no matter how he has been treated I doubt that his fascist behaviour will be in any way modified if he becomes President. To do so would be like the Germans who thought that Hitler would be become more civilized once he gained power.
I think anybody living in a democracy has to be very worried about the possibility of Trump winning, but also I think we have to try and strike the difficult balance between the concerns about Trump that you accurately describe while resisting inadvertently contributing to the alternative reality being created by the lie machine that surrounds him.
For the record, as many will know the one election that Lichtman’s prediction system got wrong was when Al Gore got the most votes, but lost to George Bush, the hanging chads and the Supreme Court.
Thank you, Paul.
I think it’s easy to focus on that litigation and forget that Gore lost his home state of Tennessee, Clinton’s crime bill led to the purging of many African Americans, often team blue, from the electoral roll and the trade liberalisation of NAFTA and China’s membership of the WTO, championed by Clinton and his Wall Street supporters led by the US Treasury’s Robert Rubin, led to what Ross Perot called the giant sucking of jobs south and west.
One should not forget that many African American representatives refused to ratify the election of Bush in January 2001, but were abandoned by the Democrat leadership and peers.
Trump is just the latest symptom of a state that has been rotting for decades. One should not single out Trump. It’s interesting how many blue collar areas switched from Obama in 2008 and 2012 to Trump in 2016 and narrowly to Biden in 2020. These communities have been abandoned.
It is easy for populists, and it seems mostly from the right wing, to succeed when large traditional industrial areas in decline.
Detroit syndrome means there are large numbers of older American workers disillusioned and with a feeling of helplessness, resenting their abandonment by their political class, and hence prone to appeals to those simple solutions offered by populists. Younger unemployed people see little hope too, and can be similarly attracted by the politics of resentment, and authoritarianism.
There are a large number of states and major cities in the Rust Belt, but also elsewhere, with these demographics, and that alters electoral predictability. Economic decline has been brought on or accelerated by neoliberalism, and that means both US parties. Where do voters go in this situation ?
Beltway Dems like Biden would seem to have little solid appeal. Lesser of two evils maybe.
Certainly electoral outcomes are going to be more volatile and less predictable in these areas.
Arguably the appeal of Brexit involved the same feelings of abandonment in many older English industrial areas. Whether Labour’s anti-politics minimal offer prospectus will succeed we don’t yet know, but both US and UK electorates include large numbers of the disillusioned and disenfranchised.
“These communities have been abandoned.”
These communities are referred to as the “Rust Belt” and Trump did NOTHING for them during his term in office. The “Rust Belt” has been a major influence on Trump and his “culture war” fight.
“Like many of the claims made by the Trump campaign, such as Jail time for Trump being a a vote winner for him, spreading the idea that Trump is a runaway favourite mostly looks like the usual self-serving bullshit.”
Mr. Langston,
You are so very correct and your statement (especially self-serving bullshit) is the best explanation of the situation that I have read. What people who live outside the USA do not understand is that the “Trump supporting MAGAts” get much more “air” time because they generate more view$, click$ and comment$ that produce more revenue$ for every form of the “Industrial Media Entertainment Complex”.
In my arrogant opinion, the country is divided 52%-48% (making the swing-vote of one issue voters extremely important) but because of the Electoral College System for the election of the POTUS where the MAGAts reside (which state) makes this divide even closer. This is the reason there was no President AL Gore or President Hillary Clinton.
What is also important to remember is that not all small “c” conservatives are Trump supporters. The small “c” conservatives may not like Biden but a large portion are NOT Trump supporters. This is the reason that current “polls” are not reliable and cannot really predict anything. These “polls” only generate more view$, click$ and comment$ thereby producing more revenue$ for every form of the “Industrial Media Entertainment Complex” of which polling is part of.
It’s quite possible that Biden will win the election, but Trump and his supporters will overturn it. Whether that be through the ratification process or outright violence is unknown.
The USA is on a precipice of dictatorship that the GOP, in its desire to stay in power at all costs, have enabled. Even worse, they may be on the verge of a civil war.
Talking of neoliberalism. here’s an e-mail from the Guardian re a livestream event on May 8th between George Monbiot & Peter Hutchison (US film-maker apparently). The event seems primarily to promote their book, but that doesn’t bother me – Monbiot is usually good to read anyway. I have ordered tickets (& the book) but the links mentioned below almost certainly will not work but here’s the accompanying article with a link for anyone interested.
https://www.theguardian.com/guardian-live-events/2024/feb/19/george-monbiot-how-neoliberalism-controls-our-lives?utm_source=eml&utm_medium=emaq&utm_campaign=MK_LI_GeorgeMonbiotPlainText010524&utm_term=Email_LIUK_Reg_Control&utm_content=variantA
Having booked a ticket I have been able able to ask a question for possible consideration. It was the obvious one about the Spending/Tax/National Debt nonsense that needs to be addressed. I invoked the name of RM & the “Taxing Wealth Report” as well as this blog, Stephanie Kelton & her “Deficit Myth” work + more, & MMT generally.
Even if you are not interested in this event, I see no reason why you (as many of you as you like) should not submit question(s) by writing to Monbiot at the Guardian, or to their info address referring to the event. It might come to nowt but who knows – give it a try.
The e-mail:
“Neoliberalism is the root cause of many of our crises. How do we end it?
Hello Alan,
On Wednesday 8 May I’ll be joining Peter Hutchison for a livestreamed event, to talk about our new book, The Invisible Doctrine.
A continuous cycle of economic meltdowns. An ever-widening gap between rich and poor. An intensifying climate crisis and the collapse of ecosystems. The rise of modern day demagogues like Viktor Orbán and Donald Trump. We respond to these crises individually, as if they emerge in isolation. But they all have their roots in the same ideology, an ideology that dominates our lives: neoliberalism.
Mention it in conversation and you’ll be rewarded with a shrug. Even if your listeners have heard the term before, they struggle to define it. We’ve been persuaded to see the ideology called neoliberalism as a kind of natural law – but it’s not. For 70 years, some of the richest people in the world paid for the doctrine to be developed, honed and hammered into our minds, to create the impression that what is good for them is good for everyone. But it isn’t, and we don’t have to live like this.
How do we navigate a way out of it?
You can join us on Wednesday 8 May, in conversation with Zoe Williams, as we explore the deep impacts of this doctrine. We will also share an alternative vision for our politics, economies and communities that could help bring the neoliberal era to an end. And we’ll be answering your questions too. Tickets are available here.
I do hope you can join us.”
George Monbiot
Senior International Affairs Correspondent, the Guardian
Thanks Alan
The alarming erosion of democratic norms in the US is propelling it dangerously close to the precipice of fascism.