The Guardian is reporting this morning that "the deepening loss of personal trust at the top of the coalition government engendered by the bitter AV referendum campaign was exposed when David Cameron was accused of a systematic and shortsighted attempt to trash Nick Clegg's leadership".
I am sure that is true.
I am eqaully sure that Chris Huhne is also going out of his way to trash Nick Clegg's leadership - and with good reason, and that this fact is being ignored by the press.
But the truth is that this coalition government is being torn apart and it's hard to see how it can survive another year, let alone the fixed term it wants.
There remains, of course, a chance that AV will get through.
If not there remains another hope - which is that the government will collapse before new electoral boundaries can be put in place, so preventing that gerrymandering act by the Tories, undertaken in their relentless pursuit of power in the interests of a tiny elite.
But is Labour ready for that challenge? And can it take power back so soon?
What will its big narrative be?
That's the real question.
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Ignoring the rather base leadership thing the back-stabbing Lib/Dem part of the coalition are doing…..there is little chance of the coalition falling apart….since it has never been together.
The coalition consists of the major partner (Cons) and the minor partner (Lims)…the only hope the Lims have is to hold things together….it’s their single hope of power.
Labour will not join with them…..
By the time the next election comes around (2015) the NHS will be beyond redemption and the electoral system will be lacking some 50 seats….mainly Labour and Lims (with a few token Cons to show it wasn’t a set-up)
The house of Lords (the land of nod) has already been packed with those who know which side their bread is buttered (some 117 more since the election)….so any changes will be passed.
As for Labour, what can I say?
I see little difference between them and the Cons nowadays…..in fact there seems to have been a quite unnerving degree of collaboration between the last three governments.
As for the press….the less said the better ?
Too pessimistic by far
I remember by Granny telling my father in the 60s the world was far too bad and how irresponsible he’d been to bring us into it
I’m glad he did
And there’s just another fight for what ius right to be had
That’s the left’s way
Richard. I had one of the ‘No to AV’ flyers that Huhne refers to pushed through my letterbox early last week. I’d previously read about them and the fact that Vince Cable had taken exception but until I read it myself I didn’t fully appreciate why. Character assassination of the highest order, I’ve no doubt, and the fact that Cameron has not spoken out against it speaks volumes.
I’ve said all along that the coalition won’t last the year out – regardless of what happens with the AV vote – and I think this further supports that thesis. Working realtionships of any kind require trust and there just can’t be any – or not sufficient – for the coalition to continue as an effective government for much longer. That said, I’m pretty sure that when the split comes certain LibDem ministers/MPs will jump ship to the Tories rather than loose their grip on power.
Ivan
It’s interesting that the divide is opening: Huhne going left and I’m sure Clegg will go right
I wonder – will there be a LibDem party to fight the next election? They couldn’t find a candidate for my local election
It’s interesting that one of the arguments the pro AV camp continually makes is that FPTP worked well when we had a two party system but now in the age of “three party politics” we need to be able to express more than one preference.
Presumably when the LD share of the vote collapses to under 10% at the next election, with half of their former voters having defected to Labour, the other half to Tories, then the present lot of AV campaigners will change their mind to FPTP as we would be back to two party politics again.
Yes, I didn’t realise that Chris Huhne was manoeuvring like that. I think he would have made a better leader than Clegg (especially since he is an LVT supporter!). I’m sure there are things happening under the radar with Labour – my LibDem friend tells me so. I certainly hope so. They must surely realise that if they continue with the ConDem coalition for the full term they will be ruined for a generation, whilst if they reformed with Labour, without another election, there would be a chance that they could rescue their reputation by helping to save the NHS – and the economy generally.
I’d just love to be proven wrong Richard.
But this [satire] site shows the current Labour thinking:
http://newsthump.com/2011/04/15/labours-popularity-boosted-by-not-being-in-government/
There are hopeful signs that Ed Miliband is moving the LP away from its neoliberal past but he is clobbered by the PLP being considerably to the right of the LP membership and stitched up by the Blair/Brown/Darling legacy of policies. The huge amounts of funding which are being put into Progress and the Purple bookers also does not auger well … there is a party within a party which is of considerably more significance than Militant ever was.
I will keep on pushing for Labour’s narrative to be the New Green Deal … which to me is just so obviously the right way to go!
I tend to agree that the Coalition is unlikely to last in its current form. The unknown factor is just how far Chris Huhne is prepared to push this. It could be that he will quieten down after Thursday.. at least for a while. However, if Huhne challenges Clegg later in the year for the Lib Dem leadership and is successful (a strong possibility, since he only narrowly lost the leadership election to Clegg in 2006), some leading Lib Dems (Clegg, Laws, possibly Alexander) are likely to jump ship to the Tories. It then becomes a numbers game… could the Tories get enough extra ex-Lib Dems into their ranks to win a confidence vote? They have 307 MPs currently… they need 325 or thereabouts. They might make a play for the DUP or the SNP to shore up what one might call “Coalition Plan B”.
If the govt did fall on a vote of confidence…. what then? Is there an immediate general election, or does Ed Miliband get to have a go as prime minister with Lib Dem and minor party support? Interesting.