We woke up to talk of a ceasefire this morning. According to The Guardian:
The US and Iran agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire on Tuesday evening, which included a temporary reopening of the strait of Hormuz, after a last-minute diplomatic intervention led by Pakistan, canceling an ultimatum from Donald Trump for Iran to surrender or face widespread destruction.
According to state media, Iran will only accept the war's conclusion once details are finalised in line with a 10-point peace plan reportedly submitted to the White House via Pakistani intermediaries.
The main elements of the 10-point plan, based on my reading of the Guardian, New York Times, FT, Wall Street Journal, and Indian media is as follows:
1. Full ceasefire and end to hostilities
- Immediate halt to all military action across the region
- Includes linked conflicts (e.g. Lebanon front)
2. US guarantee of non-aggression
- A binding commitment that the US (and allies) will not attack Iran again
3. Lifting of all US sanctions
- Removal of both primary and secondary sanctions
- Restoration of Iran's access to global trade and finance
4. Release of frozen Iranian assets
- Return of funds held abroad, especially in Western jurisdictions
5. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear programme
- Recognition of its right to enrich uranium
- An end to international restrictions on enrichment
6. End of UN and IAEA restrictions
- Termination of monitoring or sanctions regimes targeting Iran's nuclear activity
7. US military withdrawal from the region
- Removal of US combat forces from the Middle East
8. Control over the Strait of Hormuz
- Iran retains strategic control or oversight of this key shipping route
- In some versions, Iran and Oman could charge transit fees, which may be linked to the next point
9. Compensation / reparations
- US to pay for war damage and reconstruction costs
10. Formal international agreement
- A binding UN-backed resolution guaranteeing the terms
- Long-term security framework for the region
I should note that there is considerable uncertainty around points five and six. The English-language versions of the plan do not include these points, but apparently the Farsi versions do. Given that uncertainty, the above list is most definitely an approximation, but it appears to be a fair representation of what is in the media this morning.
Interpretation
In that case, there is one overriding point to note, which is that this appears to record a resounding victory for Iran in this war. Interpretation of the plans suggests a number of key points.
Firstly, point 2 makes clear that the US has not only backed down, but has effectively withdrawn from the Gulf, which is reiterated in point 7. It would appear that the US has agreed to withdraw all its bases in the Gulf states, which is an enormous change in direction for US policy and leaves Iran as the dominant Gulf power.
Secondly, points three and four make clear that the previous economic sanctions against Iran have been withdrawn, freeing its oil trade and ensuring that it can control its own economic future. This is a massive victory for the Iranian authorities and will provide it with the economic power to deliver stability in Iran in the future. In that case, the likelihood of the people of Iran overthrowing the government, which appeared to be Trump's reason for this war, will probably disappear. Populations facing enhanced economic prospects do not overthrow their governments.
Thirdly, this is reiterated in points eight and nine. There is some ambiguity in this area, but if Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz and is granted the right to charge for passage, then the immediate demand Donald Trump made for its reopening on an unconditional basis has been forgotten by his administration. The fees charged will ensure that reparations can be made for the war. If the US has agreed to contribute to these reparations, that is an admission of guilt.
Fourthly, points one and 10 are linked. The ceasefire is, according to this list, meant to be universal and cover Lebanon. It already appears that Israel does not agree. The long-term security that .10 refers to would appear to require its cooperation. There remains considerable doubt as to whether it will be provided.
Finally, whether clauses five and six actually exist in the form noted is unknown at present. There must be a reference to nuclear issues in the list, but what precisely has been agreed is not at all clear, but given that it seems likely that Iran's nuclear capacity was destroyed in 2025, as the US claims, the issue has never been justification for this war.
Reaction
So, what is the appropriate reaction to this proposed ceasefire, because as I note, it is not apparent that it is in place as yet, given that Israel does not appear to have agreed to it, and attacks on Iran did take place after the supposed announcement of the agreement?
Firstly, there is immediate relief, but I will comment upon that in a separate post, soon. The relief is decidedly limited because of what has happened over the last few days.
Secondly, the overwhelming sense is of US surrender. This sentiment cannot be put in any other way. This 10-point plan appears to give the US nothing as a consequence of this war. It does most definitely enhance the power and regional influence of Iran, whilst appearing to severely constrain Israel in ways previously unimaginable.
Thirdly, the regional consequences of this are hard to imagine. If this interpretation of the plan is correct, the US is withdrawing from the Gulf states, all of which will now live in the shadow of Iran, even if they continue to be armed by the USA. This may, of course, create regional stability, but that ignores the tensions between these states, which suggest that this outcome is unlikely.
Fourthly, we might be very unwise to think that any plan of this sort is going to be enacted. That hope might be incredibly naive. Instead, what we might have is the excuse that Trump wanted to back down from the ultimatum that he had presented, and he has no real intention of delivering on this plan at all. Forgive my cynicism, but I think that this is the most likely development that we will witness over the next few days. Israeli refusal to cooperate with the plan will be used as an excuse for him to renege on it.
Fifthly, even if that is the case, the appearance within this plan that Trump has lost on just about all fronts in this war will not go away. Trump's belief that he could start a war without a strategic goal and impose regime change by the use of air power alone, without stating that to be his aim, has been proven to be totally misplaced. Everything that has happened since has revealed his weakness, and not his strength. My point is that, as I said in a video and post yesterday, everything will change as a result of this war, and whilst I am not very confident that this ceasefire will last, I am sure this observation is correct.
In summary
Trump threatened genocide yesterday, before backing down last night in a humiliating indication of perhaps the biggest US military defeat in its history if this peace deal does last and is confirmed. Whilst the immediate reaction is relief, the position remains profoundly uncertain, and Israel's reaction is utterly unpredictable, suggesting this relief might be short-lived. The likelihood is that this war and its consequences are a long way from being over.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
There are links to this blog's glossary in the above post that explain technical terms used in it. Follow them for more explanations.
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Buy me a coffee!
What is the political situation in Israel like?
As far as I can see they are being hit by Iranian missiles and if the US decides to make peace with Iran they are on their own.
Ditto I suppose the Gulf States
If Israel had not been politically governed by the racist elements, it might have accepted the deal offered in 2002 of recognition within 1967 borders. But they were determined to offer no more to the Palestinians than county council status.
They have followed a policy of ‘security’ by trying to eliminate opposition by force. The more they do that, the less willing the Palestinians are to stop their resistance. By mass killing and destruction in Gaza , Lebanon and Iran -with some bombing in Syria, they will have alienated most of their neighbours.
If the US pulls out, they will face an uncertain future. The settlers will not leave the West Bank quietly so we will probably see yet more violence. But this time the media might not put all the blame on the Arabs.
The traditional view of “victory” revolves around stability, deterrence and political outcomes. Trump’s version is dictated by whoever captures the economic upside after disruption. So he will be seeing the opportunity for his version of victory where others see defeat. I expect he might see opportunity, for example, in transit fees for the Strait! A new front will now open up between Trump and:
The military establishment, who will prioritise security,
Allies who will prioritise stability,
Markets that will prioritise predictability.
[…] I have already noted this morning, Donald Trump appears to have conceded that the USA has suffered a major military defeat in its […]
Many of Trump’s Republican supporters are deserting him publicly – including Taylor-Greene and Bannon, but I do not feel their anxiety is about human suffering or war crimes but about the successful delivery of Project 2025.
With Trump in the White House, nothing is predictable at all. He has to go. He is deranged. But with Vance replacing him, Project 2025 and the Conservative plans of the Heritage Foundation and some very evil people, get back on track.
Keep your eye on Pope Leo and his apparent interest in doing something about Opus Dei. That seems to me, to be significant.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/06/opus-dei-gareth-gore-pope-leo
Oh yes, keep praying!!
On the ground in Florida many Republicans (both Trump supporters and non-Trump supporters), believe 100% that Bebe Netanyahu “conned” Trump into starting this war. This belief, also held by many people of all US party affiliations, will affect voting in the 2026 midterm elections as much as anything. The second thing that will effect the 2026 midterm elections is that almost as many voters really believe that Trump is mentally incapacitated.
Thanks, I was just thinking of a 25th amendment scenario. I wouldn’t presume to comment on 2028-USA.
@RobertJ
“But with Vance replacing him, Project 2025 and the Conservative plans of the Heritage Foundation and some very evil people, get back on track.”
On the ground in Florida, Vance is viewed as a a poster-boy MAGA cult Republican. Rubio is viewed as as a true “old school” Republican.
Rubio has a LARGE amount of support from “true” Republicans and will definitely give Vance a run for his money in the 2028 Presidential race. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Rubio get the nomination as isolation from Europe and NATO is not really what voters want.
Interesting
Further to my comments on the Pope and Trump…
https://www.thecanary.co/global/world-analysis/2026/04/10/trump-vatican/
Byline Times also did some good work on Paul Marshall and the charismatic evangelical Anglican right
https://bylinetimes.com/2026/04/07/james-orr-and-the-messianic-transatlantic-maga-alliance-trying-to-save-britain/
(may be a payeall)
Re Pentagon threatening the Vatican, I am reminded of Pilate’s words to Jesus, “Do you not know I have the power to…”
At this time – as relieved as I think that we all are – pointing out perceived weaknesses and ‘humiliations’ of the aggressor is not a good idea.
This war – which is not a war in my opinion, just an act of aggression – is unnecessary, unjustified, dis-proportionate and stupid.
We should instead congratulate both sides – particularly the aggressor – for pulling back and encourage more of the same?
You can’t surely go from asking people to pray that it does not happen to then taking the piss out of the main aggressor doing the right thing? Making the aggressor look weak when they have done the right thing is not recommended.
We have two weeks of peace and if we’re lucky, sanity. Let’s make the most of it. Please!
I’m sorry if this comes across as an admonishment but I am an atheist and I don’t pray because this has nothing to do with God; this is a human tragedy on earth (not heaven) perpetrated by human beings who are in love with death. You won’t encourage these people to be in love with ‘caring’ and life if you talk about them looking weak when they embrace it.
I’ve made my point.
All due respect to Richard but I’m pretty sure Trump and his cronies don’t follow his writings.
The fact is this is a humiliation for Trump and it’s perfectly right to point this out.
And as relieved as we all are on waking up to this development this morning, my first thought was the US and Israel will never agree to these terms/will renege on any agreement. They never honour a ceasefire.
I don’t believe in god either, and you’re correct in pointing out that this is not a war, it’s an unprovoked attack. Just as calling the genocide in Gaza a war, when it’s a genocide.
We can all breathe again, but for how long?
You are absolutely correct in this assessment PSR, we really should be commending the parties involved, particularly as Israel will spend every minute of the two weeks doing everything they can to convince the US to return to war. It’s just really difficult to do that when one party is Trump (which ironically is also why it’s even more important to smooth his brittle ego).
looking at that Iranian plan though, it’s hard to see a grand bargain acceptable to Iran that will not look like a US defeat. If I was to advise either party, I would suggest the focus should be built around Iran agreeing to sacrifice its nuclear programme in exchange for guaranteed security and an end to sanctions. This is of course what was already in place in 2015….
Given the damage down to Iran, and its success in closing the Straits of Hormuz, they will seek more. I could see the US reducing its presence in the region, but I suspect that’s it. Israel will have a difficult time agreeing, but if US bases are removed, they will not have overflight or refuelling so Iran should remain secure. Iranian support for Hezbollah and the Houthis will be a point of contention, but I suspect it ultimately hinges on whether some accommodation can be made to control over Hormuz.
It does not make sense that even agreeing to half of these ten Iranian proposals amounts to total surrender from the Trump regime. Surely even he cannot spin that as a US victory.
IMHO it is likely he will say they are an agreed talking point, not a deal.
He is not known for consistency any more than his honesty.
Trump’s version of victory flows from his “destroy and deal” doctrine. He’s deploying tactics that are essentially the same as his property deals, but with added violence. He sees money to be made from big deals. That, to him, is victory. And he believes that should be the driving force for a strong US.
He is, of course, utterly mistaken. The US is finished.
But PSR is right that we should focus on peace.
There is no peace. This is a charade.
The charade will continue until Trump is out of office, I thoroughly believe that 70% of the US electorate now view Trump as mentally incapacitated.
2:00 am “tweets” about destruction the world do not play well with anyone but the die-hard Trump members of the “Cult of Trump”.
All members of the “Cult of Trump” are MAGA but not all MAGAts are members of the “Cult of Trump”.
Peace?
All we need to do is encourage it- false or not. At this hour, it certainly looks dodgy given what has happened in Lebanon. We are dealing with some delicate egos in power who want to control how they are perceived. Most of the more sane leaders know that this is a delicate point that cannot be sustained with Israel attacking Lebanon. Let’s see what they do and see if they can build on what little there is. In an adversity there is opportunity. Good for those politicians having a go.
Richard is right in that Trump & Co are (still) just flooding the zone with shit. However, the whole thing is human folly and has nothing to do with the divine of anything. Only humans can unpick it.
What drives my adherence to talking up the peace is simply that I have looked into the Void. For America to ‘win’ in this scenario, what it would have to do is unacceptable and has been called that before – Hamburg, Hiroshima, Gaza etc., – modern killing at scale. And the ‘peace’ meant to come from that would come at too high a cost. Goading the U.S. as losers if they walk away is not clever. The racist and religious maniacs around Trump and his mate in Israel would find it rather useful. Give the warmongers nothing I say, peace rules. Until it manifestly does not.
Phoney war? Phoney peace? What a choice? Or no choice at all.
Is there the remotest possibility that the USA and Israel will observe the details of this agreement, as outlined above? It seems very unlikely, and Iran has no reason to trust its aggressors, based on past performance. So what is going on? If I were a betting man, my money would be on further betrayal. I have never felt a greater wish to be wrong.
This war will continue
We have two videos coming…