New polling data is out from Scotland. Party support there looks like this (and remember, in Scotland there is a form of proportional representation, so people vote for both a constituency MSP and for a regional party list, each returning members to Holyrood):
As my colleagues on The National note:
According to a seat projection from polling expert Professor John Curtice, if those results played out in the May elections, the SNP would return 59 MSPs, six short of the 65 needed for a majority.
However, the Greens would return a record 13 MSPs, meaning the Scottish Parliament would have 72 pro-independence members.
The resulting seat allocation would look like this:
Why does this matter? There are several very good reasons.
First, it very obviously matters to those who believe in an independent Scotland.
Second, the collapse in the support for Labour is massively important. Remember that Labour took a large majority of the Westminster seats in Scotland in 2024, and now it looks as if they will struggle to come equal fourth in 2026.
Third, if events turn out like this, this represents a rejection of all the major Westminster parties, and not just Labour. The old order is dead.
Fourth, at least in Scotland, it seems as if Reform is being contained.
Fifth, the Greens have always done well under the list system in Scotland, but look as if they might do better. The nationalist vote is looking as if it might learn how to vote tactically. The Greens in Scotland are not the same party as in England and Wales.
Sixth, the SNP looks as if it will continue to form the Scottish government, which was an outcome that was unlikely only a year ago.
Finally, and seventh, it looks as if Scotland might elect a strongly pro-Independence parliament, again. For how long this can be ignored by Westminster is now a very real question, and in the event that Reform did form a government in Westminster, the conflict between that government and the government in Scotland might become so severe that the move towards independence might be reinforced, albeit in ways that are unpredictable.
As a note in this morning's video, Scotland and Wales are the only parts of the UK where there is some sign of new political hope at present, and in each country, those with vision are providing that hope, as Sinn Féin might be in Northern Ireland. It is independence from Westminster that might, from May 2026 onwards, dominate the agendas in three of the four countries of the UK. For how long is the pretence that we are a United Kingdom viable in that case?
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Slightly tongue in cheek response …
The UK hasn’t been United for some significant period of time. Of course, disunity only requires any part of the UK to dissent … Not all three “nations”.
However, your question demands timing data ….. I’ll start the bidding with three () :
– Internment without trial was introduced in Northern Ireland on August 9, 1971. “Operation Demetrius”, lead to widespread arrests, increased unrest, and major civil disobedience.
– Margaret Thatcher’s address to the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland took place on Saturday, May 21, 1988. The speech, often referred to by the press as the “Sermon on the Mound” (a play on the location of the Assembly Hall on the artificial hill in Edinburgh, “The Mound”), was highly controversial at the time.
– The poll tax was introduced in Scotland in 1989 by Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government, ahead of its implementation in England and Wales. (The Act of Union said taxes should not be imposed in Scotland and not England).
All three noted.
But this has to end, one day.
And all thsoe events were pre-devolution as we now know it.
And that, in itself, is notable.
We should always ask the Tom Sowell question “Compared to what” when considering what a Scottish Parliament would look like with 72 pro independence MSPs in it.
In 2011 the same Parliament had 69 SNP MSPs and the Greens 2 MSPs. The 2026 Parliament might swing an extra seat in favour of independents.
In 2014 residents of Scotland voted approximately 5 to 4 in favour of remaining in the United Kingdom. The question of independence isn’t going away, no-one serious is saying that it is, but if we are doing a projection we should be realistic and suggest a future independence referendum would deliver an outcome a bit closer than the one in 2014 but still in favour of remaining in the United Kingdom.
That is not what opinion polls now suggest. Why ignore that?
Why did David Cameron feel relaxed about allowing the 2014 referendum? Because in 2012 – just two years before the referendum – polling for independence and a Yes vote was at 30%. The polls in favour of independence narrowed considerably as the referendum approached.
Scottish politics academics generally see (and it should be obvious) that polling for Yes for independence at 47 % (lower range) and 52% (higher range), is a floor (and not a ceiling).
Therefore at the very least, a future campaign – and polling for Yes is a majority for those under 55 – will start from nearly a half positive towards independence, and any future referendum would be 50+1.
It is for the pro-Union side to make a convincing case to swing it the other way.
(Incidentally, polling for Yes for Welsh independence is now at 30% and thus the figure it was in Scotland just two years before the Scottish independence referendum. With a majority of under 35 in favour of Welsh independence.)
Thank you
Excellent post.
My hope is that the next general election produces a hung parliament with Labour (under a new leader and one that is recognizably left, and wants to work with other parties as Compass would want) doing deals with the Greens, Plaid, SNP and Lib Dems to form a supply and demand agreement.
If so, Plaid and the SNP must demand a repeal of the Westminster Section 30 that gives Westminster the power to allow an independence referendum. As a price for support Plaid and SNP should demand that a Scottish or Welsh government that sets a independence referendum bill and stages a successful campaign that wins, will be bound and accepted as valid by Westminster (and thus the international community).
The Senedd election with the prospect of a Plaid and Green coalition is a potential exciting prospect too, considering the recent polling in Wales!
I like the idea.
In Scotland there is a way out from England’s race to the far right.
As you say Farage as PM will accelerate fracturing and division.
Weak Westminster democracy captured by billionaires and corporations could be reformed by Labour, but they behave like control opposition, feathering the nest for Farage.
The mainstream media and politicians have effectively abandoned us.
All around us in the town where I live in the midlands are cheap St George’s and Union flags forlornly flying at half-mast on lamp posts, ironically signifying the pathetic last gasp of of the Union and the dominance of England.
Plastic flags just don’t look right. Especially when they are white and look like a made in China recycled supermarket bag that costs 99p. If you value the flag then you should try to show that in the chosen of material.
The polling does indeed suggest that there will be a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament.
But the pro-independence vote share is well short of a majority (SNP + Green = 43%).
What is happening is that the Additional Member System has become worryingly disproportional as the number of parties with signicant vote share increases.
The same phenomenon has occurred in Germany in recent years, though they have dealt with it in different ways,
putting a high priority on restoring proportionality.
On this occasion the disproportionality may help the pro-independence side, but it would be much better long term to have a system such as STV that is more reliably proportional.
For a fuller explanation see
https://www.libdemvoice.org/the-additional-member-system-and-its-overhang-problem-78820.html
The opinion polls on independence suggest a majority for it persistently now.