The Guardian published these maps projecting changes in the population of countries and regions within Europe by 2100 yesterday.
This is the map of population projection based on no migration taking place:
This is the alternative map presuming that migration does occur:
The underlying data looks like this, and is almost staggering in the scale of decline forecast, barring migration:
Let me note as a preamble what the Guardian has to say:
Anti-immigration politics is on the rise across Europe. France's National Rally and Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) each have significant representation in their country's legislatures, meanwhile the UK's Reform party is topping the polls.
But the rise of the far-right could speed up the population decline of Europe, projections show, creating economic shocks including slower growth and soaring costs from pensions and elderly care.
Those wanting to shut Europe's borders must contend with a stark demographic reality: the continent's native population is expected to fall sharply over the next century in an era of low birth rates.
The critical point to make here is that only one of these maps has any relationship to what might really happen. Of course, both projections are wrong, but then, every projection ever made, excepting that the sun might come up tomorrow morning, has been so throughout human history in some way or other, but in this case one of these projections is absurd, and the other is at least plausible.
The absurd projection is the one suggests that there will be no migration. That this will be the case is impossible. Climate change guarantees that hundreds of millions of people will have no choice but change the location in which they live during the course of this century, or die.
I am quite sure that there are those who would say in response that they must die as a result, but these are people whose opinion is not worth listening to because they have lost all sense of ethical perspective, let alone empathy for their fellow human beings with whom we share this planet. As a result, like it or not, migration is going to happen.
More than that though, as the maps make very clear, migration has to happen. Just look at Scotland, for example. The forecast indicated by this map is that its population could at least halve by 2100 without inward migration, and there will certainly be significant population decline in the rest of the UK as well. In my opinion, that is entirely unsustainable.
As I have been suggesting for a very long time, there is a fundamental pension contract that exists in any country. This is that one generation must leave sufficient capital when they retire for the next generation to use so that they might be able to afford to forego a part of the income that they generate on which those from the previous generation, now in retirement, might then live. This has always been the way in which pensions really work. Ignore any savings arrangement that anyone might have. They are all irrelevant if this actual economic contract that reflects the real intergenerational relationship between one generation and the next cannot be honoured. And, as a matter of fact, that intergenerational relationship cannot occur if there are insufficient people in a following generation to respect it, and it looks very likely that this will be the case.
In practice, there are two problems in the UK with this fundamental pension contract.
The first is that some baby boomers might have been very successful in generating financial value themselves at the time of their retirement, but in reality,they are leaving capital to the next generation that is severely depleted both physically and in financial value, as is reflected in the state of our public utilities and infrastructure. This part of the contract is failing, with no sign of a change in sight.
Secondly, the boomers had insufficient children to make the contract work. There will as a result, even given what is going to happen with AI, almost certainly be insufficient people to care for many of the boomers by the time they reach very old age, when their need will be at its greatest. And, since this pattern is repeating in the generations that are following, that crisis will not be going away.
There is, therefore, only one way to resolve this dilemma, and that is for inward migration to take place into the UK. Whatever those waving flags, supporting Reform, and abandoning human rights might now be saying, we are going to be utterly dependent upon the goodwill of people coming into the UK to meet our needs for generations to come. To pretend otherwise is simply put our heads in the sands and pretend that things are not as they actually are.
That is a good description of most of our current politicians and commentariat, which is why we are in the mess we now face. But doesn't that mean that the rest of us have to face up to reality, even if they won't?
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It is important to note that the population projections are optimistic and do not take into account the continuing fall in Total Fertility Rates around the world. The Guardian article appears to base it’s projections on the 2022 population figures, which are now outdated.
The population figures for the UK for 2024 show the TFR has now declined to 1.41, down again from the last survey. The 2024 figures showed that the UK population increased by 709,000 with immigration accounting for 690,000. So we are already at the point where immigration is propping up economic growth.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/populationestimatesforenglandandwales/mid2024
The counter-argument is that if demand was more equitably organised having children would become more affordable. No sign of ruling elites arranging this, especially in this country, where they’d rather use immigration as an outrage issue to distract from the true issue of income inequality!
Higher birth rates are linked to lack of birth control and culture around having large families for household work, farming, looking after parents in old age. Survivability of children also takes a role. Even if having children were made more affordable it is unlikely a developed nation like ours would go back to a higher than one to one replacement. I sometimes suspect these reasons are behind conservative efforts to reduce some parts of America back to third world standards.
Having children is about so much more than money. Those of us with wombs, even superannuated ones, can get a bit fed up about the comments and arguments about why we are not, or did not, breed. Or being vilified as single mothers. A stable, equitable society and some promise of a viable future count. Tread softly everyone.
Goes back to my point about needing some sort of a population policy.
The obvious question I might ask though is why does the UK experience a population growth of 33% under the migration scenario while France & Germany remain roughly constant and Spain experience a decline?
Language
Viability
The legacy of empire
With our slowly reducing birthrate and subsequent decline in population we will eventually be colonised by inward immigration regardless of the wishes of the most fervent nationalists. Would migrants looking to escape climate disasters leave an emptying country alone? All the houses and infrastructure untouched? I doubt it. I also think that the culture would change well before that. We will have bidding wars between rich countries for migrants well before that happens, or certain populations transplanting to countries with existing historical ties. Given our longstanding ties to India for example, and the number of people here already of Indian descent, expect this country to become more and Indian. Likewise Pakistan, Jamaica, the Commonwealth countries. Empire will come home to roost as we sit here on viable land in a climate ravaged world, and our aging population will have no choice but to welcome them. Certain people need to understand this, and start being welcoming now, otherwise it’s going to get ugly.
Migrants made this country.
Just as they made the USA.
Quite literally. Infrastructure projects rely heavily on migrant labour. Indigenous populations are settled, and it’s challenging to relocate them for work. Migrants are already mobile. This remains true today, just as it was during the Industrial Revolution, when navvies helped build our railways and canals. Post-war Britain was also rebuilt through immigration, as our government looked to replace the lives they had squandered during the war and fill job roles in the reformed economy. I would go on to say that many a modern fortune is built on the back of cheap migrant labour as well, as is much of the neoliberal experiment, something our neoliberal government will not admit to while they are trying to appear tough on migration.
No. They didn’t.
When do you think this country was made?
In 1911 (first reliable census) the non UK born population was less than 3%.
In 1951 it was less than 6%. Immigration helped but the ideal that they ‘built ‘ Britain is as laughable as your claim to be an intellectual.
People like you talk of Romans and Normans and vikings. All invaders. You think that’s a good model to follow?
Very politely, you ignore the Irish, the Huguenots, the waves of European migrants associated with Hanseatic trade, Jews who came and went as persecutions followed them across Europe, and so much more. If you need to build your mythology on lies, and you are so insecure you are frightened of others, this is not the place for you. But then, it isn’t people to be plain rude as well.
Yes, I agree. Our country is likely to change in terms of culture, as it has done frequently in the past. I read an article years ago that made the case that in a hundred years time, as a result of falling birth rates, the UK could be a Muslim country. I was doubtful at the time, but its entirely possible.
That is very unlikely – but given the demise of Christianity they may be the biggest faith group
An image of my very elderly self being shat on by blind ostriches suddenly filled my mind’s eye. Mind you, they are fast runners, and could be far away preening their fine feathers by then.
The problem with these projections 75 years hence is that it is way too far into the future to be of any reliable significance. We need projections within the next 20-30 years to concentrate minds on the here and now.
The world is subject to much resource depletion that it is near impossible to establish what will happen in 2100.
Additionally the projected AMOC collapse could be well underway then and the northern half of Britain likely uninhabitable for the winter months.
Too many uncertainties, even before we quantify acceptable numbers on immigration.
Surely any economic system which requires an ever increasing number of people to prop it up, is fundamentally unsustainable?
Why?
What elss are they for?
Imperialism built Britain in the 18th and 19th centuries using indentured labour across the Empire supported by immigration from Ireland Germany Italy the Russian Empire etc. Also internal migration from the countryside to the cities. British people are almost all descended from economic migrants and many of us from refugees.
Correct