As I write, the story that the world is hearing is that there is a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered by the USA.
Supposedly, both sides have stopped bombing, although that was certainly not the case overnight.
This needs some reaction.
First, ceasefires are good news. I celebrate them.
Second, I have my doubts if this will last.
Third, let's look at the winners and losers.
The loser is Israel. Under sustained attack, which its supposed missile defence system was clearly unable to counter, it has suffered severe damage to civilian and maybe military targets. Its claimed military superiority and declaration of air superiority over Iran did not stop Iran's attacks. Nor did Iran run out of weapons, as it was claimed would happen. Instead, Israel might have been at risk of doing so. It appears to be the loser here.
Iran appears to be a winner. It has sustained a counterattack when that was thought to be unlikely. That counterattack worked. It even mounted one, albeit performatively, against the USA. What is more, with ample notice, its nuclear stockpiles have almost certainly survived US attacks, and maybe much of its nuclear equipment did as well. We don't know, but that is the whole point as far as Iran is concerned: there is no proof that the US succeeded as yet. And for Iran, that is a win. They retain the threat they had before the US attacked. That is sufficient for them.
And the US might, for now, appear to be a winner. Trump can claim his bombs were delivered. I suspect that the gain will be very short-term, but for now, he can claim he has created a ceasefire, and that is bad news for those who do not believe in aggression as a source of resolution to conflict, which I do not.
Where do things go from here?
First, the world is on a war footing: the likelihood that the economic consequences I have been talking about will not happen is low. We remain at real risk: the neoliberal leaders of the world have caught war fever, and so a war is what they will eventually demand. I fear that we remain in deep trouble.
Second, the chance that this ceasefire is sustainable is low, in my opinion. There is no evidence that any of the causes of this conflict have been resolved: each side is, to some degree, retiring hurt and taking the opportunity to regroup. I fear that they will, and then return to the fight.
Third, the USA has decided that it is now the arbitrator of right and wrong, and has decided it has the right to bomb at will. Good luck opposing what Putin is doing in Ukraine in that case, because the moral ground for doing so has disappeared. Once might is considered more important than law, international agreements and respect for nationhood, wait and see what happens when those with might you do not like choose to use it.
Fourth, the descent of the USA into fascism will continue.
And, fifth, nothing is resolved in Gaza. Let us never forget that. Netanyahu's genocide continues.
Finally, debate has to turn to peace: that is the only real solution, and this is just a ceasefire, and the two should not be confused. What is the new world order going to be when it is apparent that this one is now failing, incredibly badly? Isn't that what talk should really be about, and not rearmament? That it is not is what worries me most.
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At this moment in time I have completely decoupled from this issue for my own sanity? I don’t know who to trust because the whole thing has taken on the guise of a stage managed drama and because the principle actors in it – aggressor and victim – cannot be trusted.
Only time will reveal what has actually happened.
“The Western () ruling classes have no qualms about brushing aside whatever ethical, legal, constitutional and democratic constraints that stand in the way of their desperate, hallucinatory bid to preserve the crumbling order.” (From “Moon of Alabama)
Might there be a possibility that the socio-conomic consequences of current “Western” gangster actions might help to “persuade” them from behaving in even more foolishly short term ways?
What might non-neoliberal minded citizens do to improve/ stop the worsening of current governmental ideologies and actions?
That’s a big question
Thank you and well said, Steve.
Western hypocrisy was called by a young woman Spanish MEP yesterday. Uschi von der Leyen was in the chamber and addressed personally.
Online, east Asians are saying North Korea was right. Nuclear deterrence is the only way to deal with the west.
The phrase “the west versus the rest” is increasingly used online outside the west.
She was great…
As the climate continues to breakdown our supposed leaders are blowing carbon budgets to smithereens with wars and data centres for AI.
Trump will now claim his Nobel Peace Prize. Pass the sick bag Alice!
I think they might want a little more evidence…
Not sure Israel is a loser with this ceasefire. Although it gives both sides time to rearm, there have been reports that Israel was quickly running out of missile defence and would have been almost completely at the mercy of Iranian and Houthi missiles, and maybe even Hezbollah would re-emerge.
If the World’s press revert their attention to Gaza again (such as it was anyway), it is likely Israel will just start attacking again. It does seem like Iranian air defences have not performed as some suggested, although a lot of the initial attacks were internal to Iran via sleeper cells and allied insurgent groups. These can not be repeated any time soon. OTOH there do not appear to be any evidence of Israeli planes over Tehran, but lots of long range air-to-ground missiles launched from the borders, where obviously planes are relatively safe from attack.
Iranian Government officials have to fear they are walking dead men, given the ubiquity of US surveillance and Israeli spies.
I am sure that both the US and Israeli Governments are wargaming regime change in Iran and the possible outcomes from the resulting chaos. Yes Libya, Syria and Iraq are all a mess after our “bringing democracy and freedom by bombs” approach but they are hardly a significant threat to Israel or the wider US interests. That may be their calculation for Iran too.
I suppose that you might say Israel is the loser in the long run – but then we are all dead.
Edward Said said at the outset the ‘two state solution’ was a non starter , and with its action in Gaza and the West Bank – Israel has made damn sure there is no feasible two state option despite the ‘international community’ still saying there is.
Israel will continue to push peopl out of Gaza and the West Bank – …they are really set on ‘Greater Israel’ now, and Trump has said thats what he wants too..
A bit conjectural, but I reckon sanctions relief will be on the table shortly as Trump seeks to derisk the markets. I wouldn’t be surprised if Iran really do have the upper hand.
Found a Jonathan Cook piece that I haven’t noticed being advertised on this blog – apologies if I missed it.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israels-attack-iran-violent-new-world-being-born-going-horrify-you
Brings together the global picture (USA seeks world dominance) and, reading between the lines, “justifies” ICE (removing internal threats to USA world dominance).
I believe Trump still reserves the right to bomb Iran. So a ceasefire between Iran/Israel is rather irrelevant. The US will do the bombing on Israel’s behalf. I think we are going to see the end of the missiles and air strikes. In their place will come car bombings and terrorism.
I hope you are wrong.
PSR referred earlier to a “stage-managed drama”. In that vein, here’s a scenario I imagined. Perhaps unrealistic, but if there’s one thing we can be sure of, it’s that nothing about this conflict should be taken at face value.
1. Israel has been itching to start a war on Iran for years. And also needed to divert attention away from its continuing slaughter in Gaza, which even its “friends” in the West are finding more and more difficult to turn a blind eye to.
2. So it goes ahead and attacks, whether the USA likes it or not.
3. Israel puts huge pressure on Trump to join in. So Trump issues some vague threats, while Israel continues bombing Iran (While screaming blue murder about Iran’s retaliatory missiles)
4. Trump will now be embarrassed and accused of weakness by the Israeli lobby machine if he doesn’t attack.
5. Russia (which has some hold over Trump) and China (which could cut off semiconductors and vital minerals, crippling the USA, and won’t tolerate its intercontinental railroad through Iran being threatened) get together and call a halt.
6. Trump will be allowed to show off and use his mighty B2 planes and big bombs, and save face. Although no major damage will be done. Stave off pressure from Israel. Claim that his bombs have changed the course of the conflict.
7. Iran will be allowed to launch a counter-attack on the US base in Quatar to save their face, but arranged so there will be no casualties.
8. Israel and Iran will be told to stop attacks, although they will carry on till the last minute to show their bravado.
9. Trump will declare the ceasefire, portraying himself as the “Great Peacemaker”, and demand a Nobel Prize, to feed his vanity.
10. Starmer will breathe a sigh of relief, as it partly gets him off the hook. Although he’s still helping with the genocide with military logistics and arms-supply support, he doesn’t have to try to get away with war against Iran.
One loser may well beTrump. He has seriously pissed off a lot of his MAGA supporters having promised that the US would no longer get involved in foreign wars. MTG is not happy and she is not shy about saying so
Smoke and mirrors springs to mind. Actually it doesn’t spring as, to me it’s obvious? It clearly detracts from the focus on Palestine!!!
To my horror, I have had to do a lot of soul searching whilst watching the clips of devastation in Israel. That itself has made me feel very uncomfortable! However the collateral damage has to stop with regards to human life, hospitals, medics, university’s and food programs.
How we are leaving this to Donald Fucktard Trump is a very big question for both the EU, UK and humanity itself?
Real action doesn’t require actors and should not employ a tyrant.!
Soft light, hard light
Ribbons of soft light
Anchored to the dappled mossy ground
Flicker and flim
In the warm breeze
Invading the shade
Of this green and humid glade
I stand still
Breathing breathfully
Imagining myself here
Thousands of years ago
No different
But so different
Pressing my fingers
To the mound of skin
Between my brows
I have craved and hoped
For calmer sounds and voices
Inside and outside my head
Ribbons of hard light
Anchored to the dappled mossy ground
Flicker and flim
In the fierce breeze
Invading the shade
Of this green and humid glade
In the distance
I can briefly spy
The chef’s hat cloud
Before the glade retreats
And becomes itself
Thousands of years ago
Buckingham
25 June 2025
Thank you
I might need to muse on that one