The House of Commons Library published this yesterday, and I thought it worth sharing.
On 13 June 2025, Israel launched a series of attacks against Iran's nuclear facilities, its nuclear scientists, and senior commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel said the attacks were “pre-emptive” as Iran was “closer than ever to obtaining a nuclear weapon”. Iran says that its nuclear programme is peaceful and that it has no plans to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has responded with ballistic missile strikes on Israel.
There have been widespread international calls for both parties to de-escalate.
Status of Iran's nuclear programme
Since 2019, Iran is considered to have been incrementally violating the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, commonly referred to as the ‘Iran nuclear deal'), which was agreed between Iran, the UK, China, France, Russia, the US, and Germany in 2015. Under the terms of that deal, Iran accepted limits on its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.
Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60%, which is significantly beyond the 3.67% permitted under the JCPOA and far beyond enrichments levels considered necessary for civilian purposes. Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90%. Iran's overall stockpile of enriched uranium (at varying degrees of enrichment) is currently more than 40 times that permitted under the JCPOA, and it continues to expand its enrichment capabilities with the installation of additional, more advanced, centrifuges. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has noted that while enrichment is not forbidden in and of itself, “the fact that Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon State in the world that is producing and accumulating uranium enriched to 60% remains a matter of serious concern” (PDF).
Iran's nuclear ‘breakout' time (the time taken to develop enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon) is estimated to be almost zero (PDF). The IAEA considers Iran to have enough nuclear material for nine nuclear weapons if further enrichment to 90% is achieved. However, ‘breakout' time does not account for the technological capability and time required to successfully construct a deliverable nuclear weapon (weaponisation) which, in 2022, was estimated by the International Institute for Strategic Studies to be one to two years.
In June 2025, the IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution which, for the first time since 2005, formally found Iran to be non-compliant with its nuclear safeguards obligations (PDF). In response to the IAEA resolution, which Iran said was politically motivated, it announced a number of measures intended to accelerate its nuclear programme.
Progress of talks
Since the end of 2024, Iran has held separate talks on its nuclear programme with the E3 (the UK, France and Germany), in a forum with China and Russia, and in a series of indirect talks with the United States, brokered by Oman. International attention has focused primarily on the five rounds of indirect talks between the US and Iran, which have been held since the beginning of April 2025. A sixth round of talks in Oman on 15 June 2025 was cancelled after Israel launched a series of attacks against Iran's nuclear facilities and personnel on 13 June 2025.
Israeli military action and Iranian counterstrikes
Israel's military strikes that began on 13 June 2025 have targeted Iran's nuclear programme, but also its conventional military assets, senior military leaders, and non-military targets.
Attacks on Iran's nuclear programme have included strikes against Natanz, a main enrichment facility, which has been reported to have suffered significant damage. Parts of the Isfahan nuclear site have also been damaged. Israel reportedly attacked the heavily protected Fordow nuclear site, but no damage has been reported. The IAEA Secretary General criticised the military strikes saying, “nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances”. Israel has also reportedly killed at least 14 of Iran's nuclear scientists, some of whom were targeted by car bombs.
Nuclear experts have largely questioned the effectiveness of Israel's actions in degrading Iran's nuclear programme.
Israel has also targeted conventional military targets in Iran including its air defences and mobile rocket launchers, and has reportedly killed over 16 senior members of Iran's military. It has also struck non-military targets such as oil and gas infrastructure and Iran's state news broadcaster.
Iran initially responded to the Israeli attacks with drones strikes but subsequently launched several waves of ballistic missiles against Israeli cities.
The Iran-backed Houthi armed group, based in Yemen, has also launched missile strikes against Israel, “in coordination” with Iran.
International response
The UK has called for de-escalation, and the Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, has said “no military action can put an end to Iran's nuclear capabilities”. Both Mr Lammy and the Prime Minister have said that the UK military was not involved in Israel's strikes on Iran.
The Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has now advised against all travel to Israel and asked all British citizens in Israel to register their presence with the UK Government. The UK has also strengthened its military presence in the region, including deploying additional RAF aircraft.
The United States has emphasised that it was not involved in Israel's military strikes, as well as the need for a negotiated settlement. President Trump has warned Iran against any attacks on US military assets or personnel in the region.
European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, has also urged de-escalation and a negotiated solution, while saying that “Israel has the right to defend itself” and that “Europe has always been clear: Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon”.
China and Russia have both condemned Israel's attacks on Iran, saying they breached international law.
This paper provides an overview of the status of Iran's nuclear programme and recent developments. It also discusses recent military action between Israel and Iran and responses to this. The briefing does not provide background information on ongoing conflicts and events in the Middle East.
Further information is available in the Commons Library collection: Middle East instability in 2023 and 2025.
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Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
FAFO
Notably Israel is not a signatory, it’s believed to have at least 90 nuclear warheads, maybe more, it’s certainly believed to have produced enough plutonium for 100 to 200 weapons. Israels nuclear programme, in itself has been a significant contributory factor in Iran’s treaty breaching programme and the west’s approach to Iran’s programme, is seen by many in the Middle East, no matter how undesirable Iran achieving its objective would be, as yet another case of double standards.
https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-israels-nuclear-arsenal/
“Israel has its own secretive nuclear weapons program, one that it doesn’t publicly acknowledge but that, some experts believe, is also expanding. “- The New York Times : https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/world/middleeast/israel-nuclear-weapons.html
We must be at war, because truth is usually the first casualty.
HoC Library did you say? It would be out of place even on a news stand.
That’s all I can say about that.
No mention of the RAF deployment?
Yes – 6th para from the end.
“The UK has also strengthened its military presence in the region, including deploying additional RAF aircraft.”
I can think of nothing more likely to encourage Iran to press ahead with its nuclear programme than Israel’s attacks.
Interesting note.
Better than what the DT has been pumping out imo.
Hopefully peace will breakout because some kind of settlement is desirable according to a number of countries involved.
The whole non nuclear proliferation principle I’m not so sure about personally but that is for debate another time.
Dark days, again.
Thank you Richard for bringing this information from the HoC library to our attention.
Shame that the folks at the HoC seemed to have forgotten that on May 8th 2018 the USA unilaterally walked away from the ‘Iran nuclear deal’.
Perhaps we might be in a better place if they had not acted thus??
We would, undoubtedly.
Not mentioned is that Israel has not signed the Non Proliferation Treaty, and is one of only five countries not to be party to the 1968 treaty. This means that the IAEA has no way to monitor or verify Israel’s nuclear arsenal.
Ten years ago Iran signed a treaty on nuclear enrichment. Trump tore it up. Negotiations were scheduled to begin the day after the Israeli strikes. It is now obvious the adventure was carefully planned using the negotiations to fool Iran. That Trump did not know about the strikes is impossible to believe. Looking back it seems Israel has attacked Iran every other week. Alternatively they assassinate top officials. Iran has shown remarkable fortitude in not retaliating in a massive way. Israel has been trying cause a war with Iran for as long as I remember. They expect the US to join in. This puts us all at risk . I have believed all my life that Russia has not been the threat to the human race. That accolade belongs to America and its rulers in Israel.
Two things can be true at the same time.
On your comment about Israel trying to cause a war with Iran for a long time. The US needs reminding of what Netanyahu said in 2002 about Iraq, when addressing the US Congress; “If you take out Saddam, Saddam’s regime, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region,” Instead we got utter destabilization, notably with the rise if ISIS and the Syrian civil war, not to mention hundreds of thousands dead in Iraq and millions of refugees, most of whom headed for Europe. Iran is four times the size of Iraq with almost twice the population. To attempt to ‘take out’ Ayatollah Khameni and his ‘regime’ would in my view have global consequences. I believe that any result in Iran, whether ‘regime change’ or chaos would be regarded as a win by Israeli fanatics, as this would direct attention away from what they are doing, as we are already seeing in their wholesale killings of people seeking food aid. Gaza has almost, though not quite, gone off the radar as the gad fly media rush to report on the latest shiny thing.
As someone who has worked in Iran, most recently in 2018 for a week and 2012 for a month, living and working with ordinary Iranians (working in agriculture) I can say that my Iranian co workers simply wanted a happy life. Most were not great fans of the regime or the Revolutionary Guard and they were all devout Shia muslims. I didn’t get the sense that they wanted the destruction of Israel but they also didn’t want Israel attacking them either.
Having also worked in Israel I can say that many Israeli are nervous about having a near neighbour whose religious and military wings place the total destruction of Israel as a major objective. I think many of us would feel quite nervous if in the same situation.
Only the Iranians know how close they were/are to having a working nuclear bomb and I got the sense that they definitely didn’t think it was anyone else’s business. If the Israelis can be nuclear, why cant they? The 1953 coup is not forgotten by many moderate Iranians resulting in no great love for Britain or the US. Dont be surprised that many cars in Iran are French.
The current conflict might be the result of a number of “coincidences “ or conspiracy theorists might be drawn to a more darker conclusion. Ultimately the “destruction of Iran’s nuclear project” will just delay the inevitable by a few years.
Iran needs friends within the region, not just trading partners such as Russia and China. But Iranians are not Arabs, they are Persians, very culturally different. The USA, the UK and the EU need to understand this cultural significance.
Israel should also think carefully about isolating itself totally within the ME region. Future protagonists are unlikely to make the same mistakes of Syria and Egypt in 1973.
Sadly the entire region is likely to continue to lurch from one crisis to another. The west need to dramatically reduce any reliance on gas and oil from the ME so as not to be drawn into future conflicts.
The absolute potentates in the Middle East will be feeling nervous about he possible consequences of this upcoming war. If Iran prevails and there is evidence it will, those monarchs ,princes and sheiks could could be dethroned by the Arab street who have suffered for so long under those depraved rulers. All the Middle East countries were the creation of the British colonial government. Israel was created as a means of keeping control of the strategically imperative Middle East and its oil. One thing is certain. If the Americans go for a ground war they will not prevail. The US has not won a ground war since 1945. Lost in Vietnam, in Iraq, in Afghanistan. Fought a draw in Korea. Iran has a much bigger population than all those nations. According to David Attenborough on You Tube the country is almost impossible to invade due to its terrain. The country has obviously created a powerful military. They will be supported by Russia and China. The Americans have said categorically their ultimate aim is the destruction of China. So nothing can be lost by supporting Iran. How did our country come to fight alongside a lunatic and someone who commits genocide?
We have to work for peace.
There is no other option.