I am well aware that Canada is not like the rest of the world. I have been there a couple of times, and really enjoyed my visits, but to pretend that its relationship with the rest of the planet is like that of any other country would be wrong: its proximity to the USA ensures that is the case.
The obvious reason for pointing that out this morning is to dampen any excessive hope that the victory of the Liberals in the Canadian election might generate.
Firstly, let's not forget that an arch-neoliberal leads the Liberals. That is Mark Carney, of course.
Second, let's note that Carney may not be able to deliver a majority government, despite the threat from Trump next door. That is quite extraordinary. The Canadian Conservatives may be down, but they are not out.
Third, the real victims in this election look to have been the minority parties, including the more progressive ones.
Fourthly, nonetheless, it does seem fair to say that the real loser of this election has been populism. That was the choice of the Canadian Conservatives. It is going exceptionally badly for them. That is obviously because of Trump: his demand that Canada prepare itself to be the 51st state of the USA has unsurprisingly not gone down well, and he repeated it, even yesterday. The possibility that Trump might be the worst thing to ever happen to populist candidates is, as a result, real.
However, I cannot see that having much impact on Farage's popularity on Thursday, and so it would be a decidedly false hope to think that this trend extrapolates well. As yet, there is little evidence to prove that it is the case.
Wait for the increase in US inflation.
Wait, too, for the increase in US unemployment.
Wait for the decline in US GDP, and especially the standards of living for most people.
Wait, even for an obvious Trump-created recession, or worse.
Then what is happening in the US might have much more impact in somewhere like the UK. So far, the absence of a direct threat seems to make that unlikely.
Canada, then, is really not like anywhere else. And now they have to put up with Carney, a man always possessed of the most enormous ego and reputedly the biggest temper in any room. Good luck with that. The last thing that he will be is in touch with the ordinary Canadian. The political bubble of indifference to real needs will, in other words, continue.
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Your last line sums up the tragedy of all of this and is spot on.
The Political Compass site is worth checking out for this election:
https://www.politicalcompass.org/canada2025
As can be seen from their graph, both main parties are firmly authoritarian right, just like the UK. No real choice at all.
Agreed
Until the underlying drivers of populism are addressed, populism and their strongarm leaders won’t go away. The drivers are economic, if this were addressed especially housing it would take out the oxygen.
Populism likely has a high number of those with an authoritarian disposition who are more alert to ‘outsiders’ taking their ‘tribe’s’ scarce resources. Hence Trump and Farage have zero interest in solving the economic issues facing many of their supporters, such as creating an over supply of affordable housing. They could do that but they won’t, It’s in their interests to keep the economic harms going and blame it on outsiders, the popular targets of the core base being, immigrants,China, woke and diversity, etc.
That’s what Trump did in respect of his mismanagement of Covid, it was a Biden hoax to ruin him and a China virus.
I just heard from some senior people within my local council that they expect a reform landslide in our mayoral election. We have been told that the project I am working on needs to be seen to be making progress before some Reform chancer comes in looking to make a name for themselves.
Shit….
Listening to the election debate, all the candidates seemed to be reasonable, with the Tory and Labour candidates being nicely removed from their main parties’ politics and more in step with local issues. All that is, except for Reform. Their candidate spoke in slogans and jargon, attacking past governments instead of answering questions and name-dropping Farage where possible. They seemed to be treating a regional campaign as a national agenda and displayed little in the way of talent. The only policy they mentioned firmly was a commitment to fracking, which will not go down well in this county. That won’t stop them from winning apparently. Slogans and jargon go a long way.
The Green candidate was good. That was something.
Thanks
I don’t know where you live Tom B but that sounds exactly like our Reform Mayoral candidate.
Zero relevant experience. And obviously “coached” to within an inch of his life. And all of it national, not local.
He seems to have no idea about what a Mayor can do, so no “vision”.
Trouble is, this is a weird area with a big city (Labour council lead standing), almost as big rural area with some small towns (Conservative Council lead standing) plus a LIbDem with ambition but nothing to offer than “vote me to keep Starmer out”.
Reform guy is a local sports hero from the city so has more name recognition than anyone else.
So I think there is a horribly real chance of him winning on “give him a chance” logic….
A nightmare….
Listening to Mark Carney’s Reith Lectures in 2020 in the hope of learning something about economics, I ordered and read a book by Mariana Mazzucato. Book very interesting. But I assumed Mr Carney had some progressive bones under that suit – and later have been reminded that a little knowledge, if not dangerous, must be treated with caution. Thank you again for this excellent blog.
Thanks
Yes, absolutely, Canada is a country in contrast to the USA from it’s founding to today – with a ‘if the USA is that we’ll be this’ attitude. That is how to understand Canadian culture and politics.
Looking at it from a Canadian angle, Trump’s threats are no idle threats – it was only in the last few years that Canada’s population has overtook California (and the population of Texas is not too far off Canada’s now too). With the second largest landmass in the world (with Canada’s second largest island (Victoria Island) larger than Great Britain!), the US giant next door and Trump’s ‘beautiful landmass’ comments, is a threatening one to a country with vast limitless amounts of geography and few people, compared to the populous economic giant to the south.
(If Canada truly wants to be distinctive in North America – and contrast with the USA – it could replace ice hockey and baseball, with football (sorry ‘soccer’!) and cricket! )
I have met several Canadian Snowbirds in Lee County Florida (Fort Myers-Cape Coral-Sanibel Island). The Canadian Snowbirds gravitate to Lee County Florida as they get more “bang for their buck” in Lee County than they do in say St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Sarasota-Bradenton as the tourism traffic is less traditional and more “six month holiday let” in Lee County.
Anyhooo…….I was standing in line at the Comcast-Xfinity Store behind some Canadian Snowbirds (in their mid 70s to early 80s) who returning their routers and TV boxes and they got very chatty. These people could be labeled as traditional “small c” conservatives. They wanted nothing to do with the USA Healthcare system but like many Yanks who voted for Trump they do not like immigrants of color, feel First Nation People have been given “Too Much” at the expense of the the working “joe” Canadians, could care less about “The Crown”, dislike “all the money” going to Toronto & Vancouver and are generally dissatisfied with the financial status of their children’s and grandchildren’s households.
These complaints, which are NOT justified in most cases, are not much different from the middle class and upper middle class traditional “small c” conservatives in the USA. These people really do not understand what they are talking about as the amount of money they are referring too is just a drop in the bucket, maybe 20 Canadian dollars per household (tax filer).
As a Canadian I am delighted that the Conservatives did not win and the leader Pierre Poilievre (mini mini Trump lite) lost his seat . However the huge swing from a possible Con. win in January (25points up) to losing the election in April is almost entirely due to Trump and his tantrums re. Canada. The result poses other problems however, the huge swing to the Liberals decimated the smaller parties, NDP and Greens leaving us with an almost “two party system” dedicated to frustrating each other as long as they can. Apparently Canada is only one of 4 countries who now do not have a proportional representation system of voting. If that had been in place all four (five?) parties would have won some seats and would have had to learn to work together. lets hope in the next 4 years we can convince Carney to bring in such a system as its unlikely the Libs will win another consecutive election and a prop rep system will destroy the chances of the Cons from forming a majority next time. Working on it!!
Good luck