Trump fell out with almost all his senior staff in his first administration. He will this time, as well. So, what happens when he and Musk fall out?
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
Donald and Elon, when is the fallout? That's my question.
Donald Trump is going mad.
Elon Musk clearly is mad in the approach that he's adopting to the management of the US government.
But the one thing that both of them have in common is possession of the most massive ego. And Donald Trump has a history of falling out with people.
Almost everybody who served him in his first administration left in disgust at his policies, his inability to make decisions, his failure to implement anything that he had talked about, and his utter inconsistency.
At some point, even Elon Musk is going to get fed up with that, or alternatively, Donald Trump is going to get fed up with the fact that Elon Musk is the person who's getting the attention whilst he is being blamed for everything that goes wrong, managed by the likes of JD Vance.
Whichever way it is, these two are going to bust up. I think we can call that as close to a certainty as anything in this world might be, and I'm not a person who believes too greatly in certainties, but this one seems so obviously likely that I think we could almost put money on it if you were a gambling person - and I'm not.
So, what happens when they do fall out? I think that is a phenomenally important question because at that point, the whole approach that Trump has had towards his government might fundamentally change. After all, he can't get rid of Musk without getting rid of his whole team and his whole team are what makes up the Department of Government Efficiency - the Doge, as it is called - and they, if they depart alongside Musk, will leave with a mighty lot of records that they might not return to government because they will claim that they are now their property.
And they will leave chaos and mayhem behind them because the one thing that you can guarantee is that these people have not left an organised audit trail of their work in all the departments that they've had an impact upon, because that's the way they work.
They are literally working by shock and awe.
You don't then leave a detailed record of precisely what you did, when, and how and why, and what the change to code was, and everything else that you did, so that somebody can come along afterwards and reverse everything you did or re-employ the people that you sacked or whatever else it might be.
And at that point, Trump might realise, one, just how foolish he's been, and two, just how impossible it might then be for him to put matters right.
Because things are going to go wrong. The States cannot survive with this degree of chaos.
It cannot sustain government when it's attacking people at the rate it is.
It cannot maintain the provision of services on which people are dependent, whether it be social security, or services to veterans, or Medicaid or whatever it is.
If Trump is determined, with Musk's assistance, to destroy the basis on which those services are supplied, there will be a fallout.
Again, I think that's one of those things that we can say is pretty much a certainty. We just haven't got long enough into this administration as yet for that to happen because good admin systems have their own sense of inertia. They keep going for as long as possible before the breaking point is reached, and so far, in most cases, that hasn't happened, although USAID is a definite exception.
So, there is going to be a fallout. And what happens then? Chaos? Breakdown? Or who knows?
The point is, at that point, there will be some degree of national collapse, simply because these two massively egotistical and frankly, deeply stupid men will have fallen out with each other on the consequences of what they're doing.
I actually can imagine that it will be Musk who will walk because he will want to go further than Trump will let him at the end of the day, because even Trump must realise there's only so far he can go.
I am truly terrified of the consequences of this happening, because for the people of the USA, this could literally take weeks, months, and maybe a lot longer to recover from.
People who don't get their cheques, who don't get their medical support, who don't get the requirements that they have, for example, for their medical conditions as a veteran, are going to suffer greatly. It's a simple, straightforward statement of fact that this will be the case, and if that's true, the Musk versus Trump fallout is going to hurt millions and probably tens of millions of Americans.
Will a continuing Trump administration even be able to manage those consequences?
And has anyone thought about what an emergency government to handle the mess might look like? Because it's entirely possible that that will be necessary. But JD Vance is most certainly not the person to lead that government, nor frankly is anyone in the Republican Party at the present point of time when it seems all of them have sold out to what Trump is doing.
What will America do when these two people fall out and the mess is revealed?
What will the American government look like?
How will it work?
Will there be a technocratic solution as there have been in other countries when things like this have happened?
I don't know the answers to these questions, but I sincerely hope that somebody in the USA is thinking about them because this is the sort of crisis that country's going to face, and very soon, and I'm deeply worried as to where they're going.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
There are links to this blog's glossary in the above post that explain technical terms used in it. Follow them for more explanations.
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Buy me a coffee!
Musk has already said he doesn’t agree with Trump on tariffs and would rather aim for free trade.
Trump certainly has form for dismissing his Cabinet members or whatever the equivalent is in the USA and I expect that they’ll be replaced in the same way as previously. Musk is a team worker though and many engineers and scientists like dealing with him although we don’t see this side of him in public. In my view Musk will disagree publicly but if it rises above that to a spat it won’t show. He will concentrate on one of his other businesses.
What will really be interesting and worrying is when Trump falls out with himself. Are there any models locally which show what happens to brave believers in the state when they say something tomorrow that disagrees with what they said yesterday?
there is a psychological model called personality disorder. I would render a major aspect of it as a manic defence of the ego over recognition of reality. (there are other definitions but I was a bot of a nonconformist in the profession)
Trump is pathologically narcissisticand possibly fascist. Would you say that Musk could be bi-polar?
“Musk is a team worker though and many engineers and scientists like dealing with him…”
Is this true though? There are many reports of Musk’s micromanagement and of people who work with (for) him trying to avoid him at all costs during their working days.
Doesn’t Elon have a limit of 130 days that a citizen can work for the president? I read somewhere that he’ll be gone end of May.
Those street protests across the USA were a great watch but, ho hum, not really getting much media attention, is it?!
They might make him an employee…
Or engage him as a consultant
It’s interesting that a commenter suggests that many engineers and scientists like dealing with Musk.
Having watched Musk over the last few months trying, and each time failing, to articulate his thoughts I’m wondering if he communicates with them by telepathy.
He’s an incoherent mess whether it’s the ketamine he admits to, or some other substance(s), is difficult to determine.
Not sure how reliable that is. Fairly senior person from one of Musk’s more innovative companies noted behaviour we’d also associate with Trump (changing mind/direction – removing people on a whim even if they were doing what he’d previously wanted). Their notable quote: “Good to be known about by him – but not too close”. Folk are paid sufficiently well that they tolerate that environment – but not sure engineers like ‘like working with him’………….
But in the meantime the wealthiest will be future-proofing as a result of the chaos.
A US feeding frenzy – privatisation of state departments like social security – same old neoliberal ‘efficiency’ -efficiently transferring our money into billionaire pockets.
My concern is that Trump, if he is indeed suffering from Cognitive Impairment, will not realise, or have the mental ability to stop this madness before it’s too late.
He is being driven by others who will not let him do so.
Absolutely right to be deeply worried, Richard. And yes, of course they’ll fallout and then we know from past practice that Trump will blame Musk for everything – as he has done anyone else who worked for him (apart from his daughter).
If you look back through my comments I’ve argued previously that Trump wouldn’t get past June before the true extent of the disaster that he and his ‘policies’ are is laid bare. Currently Fox News (i.e Fox Propaganda) are still on his side, although I noted from a US OSINT I follow that for the first time in 28 years of broadcasting they’ve dropped the stock market ‘ticker’ from the screen when they broadcast.
But over the next month a whole load of mess is going to hit the fan: unemployment up; inflation up; social security unpaid or late; Medicaid and Medicare delayed or denied; National Parks service unable to function properly; the measles outbreak in Texas becomes an epidemic; and an and on.
The interesting thing – as you say – is what will be the response. I suspect that Trump will declare a national emergency and take to himself the necessary powers that will then last right through into next year and be used to deny the mid terms. That’s how MAGA are planning to stay in power. And they have to do that because they can already see that unless they do they are going to be wiped out – in Congress and the Senate – in the mid terms (any MAGA politician with less than a 25% margin is in danger, based on what happened in the deep red districts in Florida last week).
Best case scenario a ‘national’ government of technocrats, as in Greece a few years ago. But my bet is on the national emergency option followed by martial law.
Thabnks, Ivan.
“national emergency option followed by martial law.”……followed by civil war.
Lots & lots of guns in USM(ango).
Isn’t that (civil war) a fundamental risk of the pursuit of the Project 2025 agenda, Mike? Push everything back to state level with the exception of the military, taxation and foreign policy -which is my understanding of the philosophy of the authors. And then use the remaining powers (particularly military) of the federal government to coerce/force Democratic states to conform to the laws, practices and norms of red states. Or maybe you end up with no ‘united states’ but something akin to before the American civil war?
Whatever the plan I’d be happy to bet (and I’m not a betting person) £100 that some mechanism or device will be found to stop or corrupt the mid terms in 2026. Voter manipulation – in its various forms – has been tried and Democrats will be wise to that, so iyt has to be something more drastic.
Additionally, I don’t think the Supreme Court will be any protection – as some suggest here. I agree that it’s likely that Trump would lose judgements of the Court on fundamental constitutional issues (Coney Barratt and Roberts are not of the MAGA ilk of the other four right wing justices). But I’m sure ways will be found, as they have in Hungary, Turkey, and Russia, of course – the latter being where Trump and co get much of their advice.
Wouldn’t the US Supreme Court have something scathing to say about a President/Executive which declared a national emergency, imposed martial law and tried to prevent the mid-term elections – all to prevent the Republican party from facing an electoral wipeout – given that it was the President himself, with help from his similarly intellectually challenged buddies, who deliberately brought about the national emergency/countrywide/worldwide chaos in the first place?
But they are hired stooges
I think it would be 5 to 4 against Trump et al or perhaps 6 to 3.
Stooges have red lines and I don’t think they would let the US collapse.
I agree with AC Bruce. The Supreme Court is powerful in the current status quo. If they allow Trump free reign, it would be a gamble. If he failed, the SP as an institution would go down with him. Better for them that things remain the same. They can take their perks, hope for another conservative appointment.
Richard. Right on cue note the spat between Navaro and Musk, which started at the weekend with Musk calling for zero tariffs between the US and the EU (i.e. a free trade zone), and disparaging Navaro’s PhD (in economics from Harvard!!!!!!!!). And then today, Navaro calling Musk a ‘car assembler’ (ouch!). It’s all downhill from here 🙂
Agreed
This is just the start
Musk is not going to last long
He can sense the cost