As this week has progressed I have become increasingly aware of the fact that the right question to ask with regard to the US presidential election is not who will win it, but whether Trump will accept the result.
I am aware that opinion polls in the USA are suggesting that the election result is close, but when those polls are sorted on the basis of the reliability of the entities either conducting or publishing them, then there is a suggestion that Harris is more likely to win, and that other polls are being created as a basis for questioning the validity of her doing so.
In addition, it is apparent that in many of the more marginal swing states pro-Trump Republicans have been working for several years to establish their positions on the committees that are supposed to endorse election results so that they have the opportunity to challenge whatever the chosen opinion of the electorate might be. This is perhaps the biggest danger to Harris.
And then, even if that fails for Trump, no one can ignore the precedent of January 6, 2020, although a massively biased Supreme Court might intervene to deliver the result to Trump whatever the people of the USA might think long before the equivalent date arrives this time.
To put all this another way, whilst I have long suspected the validity of election results in some countries where corruption is rife and ballot rigging an almost normal course of events, during previous US presidential election races I never thought that such corruption would have to be taken into consideration as one, if not the primary, determining factors in the outcome of that process. Even during the shenanigans of 2000, when the decision in Florida hung in the balance for some time, I always presumed that the due process of law would eventually prevail. I did not like the outcome, but accepted it.
This time I have no such confidence. By next weekend the coup d'etat that might deliver Trump the election result I still hope and expect will not be his to claim could be under way.
I stress, I am under no illusions about Harris. I have no doubt that she will continue to promote American neoliberal imperialism around the world, not least via Netanyahu, and nothing about that appeals to me. But, given the choice that has been presented to the US electorate by a supposedly democratic constitution that fails to reflect the nature of modern American society, I would have no choice but vote for her if I had the opportunity to do so, which of course I do not. I would do so even though I know I will be deeply underwhelmed by her presidency in the remote chance that she might happen to enjoy one. For all my reservations, that presidency would, in my opinion, be vastly better than anything that Trump might deliver.
But, whilst I think her prospects for success at the ballot box might be high, her chance of being inaugurated is, I fear, incredibly low. And that is shocking.
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It’s been occuring to me as I observe these same events, that a lot of the things that the MAGA people have been doing look remarkably similar to tactics the USA has been using in central and south America for decades. It fills me with no comfort at all to think that chickens are coming home to roost and that sometimes one does reap what one sows.
Indeed these are worrying times. Just as with the Starmer win over here, a Harris victory will not cause the problems caused by neoliberalism to go away. In fact they will likely get worse
Wealth will continue to flow upwards leaving an increasing number of the population concluding the system is just not working for them. Therefore the attraction of someone like Farage or Trump who persuades them that it’s all the fault of immigrants and promises “real change” is inevitable.
Trump might call it a day, but some other loon will replace him, because the failings of neoliberalism will continue to cause disaffection for most. Elon Musk anyone?
Sadly, I agree. It’s frightening the similarities between Trump/MAGA and Nazi Germany. Without a doubt, the ‘central’ neoliberal western governments, most especially America, have failed to deliver equality across the population, and have no doubt contributed to the far right getting popular. My fear is that even if Trump doesn’t win this time, like you and Richard have said, it’s only a matter of time until him or someone else gets in from the far right, much like here in the UK/Europe.
What’s most ironic (sadly), is that the far right dictators never actually solve the problems of the inequality, they just turn to hate and destruction. History teaches us that facism is never a solution, yet humans always seem to be destined to be driven towards it.
I think unless a miracle occurs, like we actually get a change in politics without a totally destructive occurrence, we are on the path to WWIII. It’s often said, bankers are the ones that cause war, and it certainly seems neoliberalism is staying true to that.
Fortunately Musk was born in South Africa so he cannot be the actual president. However that will not stop him wrecking democracy. The fact that America has outsourced vital defense infrastructure and satellite connections Starlink to a private individual shows the insane position neoliberalism takes us to. We are now increasingly all at the mercy of Musk and fellow billionaires.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/02/elon-musk-donald-trump-us-presidential-elections
Without wishing to be inflammatory. if Harris wins, is it likely that there will be large scale riots throughout the U.S.A? Since Trump has said that he will accept the result if it is, “A free and fair election”, which, if he loses, he, and his supporters will never admit, then is it likely violence will occur?
Yes
Has Trump yet acknowledged in public that he lost the 2020 election? I think he and his supporters still claim it was “stolen”.
The votes were so close and the faults so manifest that we could not be certain who actually won Florida in 2000 without a full recount which the US Supreme Court stopped. So it is certainly possible that Bush did “steal” Florida from Gore in 2000.
In usual fascist “mirror argument” form (accusing enemies of that your own party is doing), it was the 6 January rioters who were literally trying to “steal” the result of the democratic process, not their political opponents.
Most authoritarians know you don’t need to stuff the ballot box, although some are so paranoid they do it anyway. You control the voting rules and regulations and the electoral commission, the voting districts and the vote counters. You disqualify or sue or imprison realistic political opponents so they are tied up in legal process. You control the press so opposition voices do not appear. You restrict political finance and donations, which using the bully pulpit of government and megaphone one of state controlled media for yourself. You control who is entitled to register to vote, and the requirements at polling stations to vote, to disenfranchise groups that are more likely to support the opposition, and make sure you control a large payroll vote (teachers, civil servants, police, etc). All the little nicks and tucks that make the result on polling day inevitable already. Yes, the US already has many of these features. So does the UK.
If Trump gains the presidency by such methods, I believe the chances of massive violence are equally possible. The other possibility is attempted secession by states such as California and Washington State.
It looks like a re-run of 2020 to me.
If memory serves me right it was neck and neck between Bob Dole and Bush when the corrupt and gerrymandered supreme court stepped in and ludicrously ordered the Florida vote count to stop.
They then declared George Bush the winner although a later final count of the votes found that Dole had actually won thus the first ever stolen election happened.
The Republican election boards have been busy putting in place people who will declare the vote in their state invalid or corrupt or anything just to get the result before a judge who will then send the case on up to the supreme court again where the said corrupt court will declare for Trump.
I think this scenario the most likely and add to this thousands of far right maga so called election integrity officials armed to the teeth and we have a genuine coup d’etat in the USA.
Just check out some of the twitter feeds on these “election integrity” people they are truly bonkers.
It’s most likely Harris will win the vote but not the election.
Just this morning I see Elon Musk will be appointed to look at government efficiency and he has said ata rally that he will gutUS spending by two trillion dollars per annum which is roughly one third if the US budget.
They are barking mad.
I think your history and dates are confused.
Al Gore in 2000. Dole was 1996.
The USA and the CIA have a long record of interfering with overseas elections. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_electoral_interventions
Of course it is technically illegal for them to interfere with national elections, just as it is illegal for them to “spy” on US citizens… so the USA gets the UK to spy on US citizens (and vice versa). Does this mean that the USA will interfere with its own elections? I’ll just say that if they did, they won’t get caught.
There are those who credit the CIA with killing Kennedy in 1963. After you’ve killed a president, and got away with it, what’s a little election rigging to the CIA?
I’ve been wondering whether the US Government/Security Services (or whoever) should, in the interests of protecting US democracy (imperfect though it is) ensure that Trump does not become President. Some of the stuff people are suggesting might happen if he does, along with puppet masters Musk, Thiel et al, is truly frightening. And would imperil much of the world.
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/01/american-carnage-the-musk-trump-plan-for-total-collapse/
Of course Trump & co will not accept defeat and insurrection may well follow. So the US would not only have to interfere it would also have to prepare the Police and military to deal with the prospect of an armed force of Trumpistas.
I think that the chances of Trump and his MAGA flock accepting anything other than a Trump victory are next to zero. I read that lunatic fringe of MAGA believe that Trump is anointed by God; he can only lose through fraud; and that the certifying committees in the swing states should ignore their counts entirely, declare Trump the winner and send the delegates to the electoral college. Some groups associated with militias have already announced that Jan 6 2025 is going to be “interesting”. This is an express train to hell!
Ooppps yer right Richard
It was the year 2000 and
sorry was of course Al Gore not Bob Dole
Memory clearly not that good this morning.
Where in earth did Bob Dole come from I’ve no idea
The real tragedy here for me is the way in which the party funding machinery of U.S. politics has helped to maintain the grip of the rich on both the Democrats and Republicans to sustain the lie that is Neo-liberalism.
This lie has led to outrageous opportunists and fascists like Trump to prosper and we are also seeing this phenomenon around the world too. With a political Left with no confidence and no unity, it is no surprise.
So, the rich in America have got their way at the cost of democracy. The U.S. was never meant to be like that apparently, but a cursory look at the Indian Wars somewhat blemishes the record and the image to the point that the forces that expropriated native Americans so effectively were always going to turn inwards at some stage and eat its own as soon as the West was won. The Puritans and Edward Deming ended up completely ignored as Wall Street euthanized disparate ownership and hoovered up output and centralised wealth.
And not only eat their own, but forget them too, for it is the U.S. rich who wanted China and its lower labour costs to boost their profits, whilst China was and still is politically and philosophically at odds with the U.S. state and war is a real possibility.
Greed is an expensive business, and modern America is the epitome of it.
The American public will be ultimate victims.
As I said, a tragedy. I agree that America may well be a very ugly place after the next election no matter what happens – civil war is possible and even worse will be something that the capricious rich will no doubt exploit.
I think America’s influence started with the oil companies. From the imposition of the education system, pharmaceuticals and petrochemical industry and Big Food. And of course the Americans engineered the OPEC oil crisis in order to raise prices.
Source: How Big Oil Conquered the World (Documentary)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6r8nkxCKO4
Oil and the Energy Crisis of the 1970s: A Reanalysis
https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/oil-and-the-energy-crisis-of-the-1970s-a-reanalysis
“I never thought leopards would eat MY face,” sobs woman who voted for the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party.
Courtesy Paul Krugman’s recent post.
Sadly it does seem entirely plausible that civil war will erupt in the US following their election. I hope against hope that won’t happen.
My main fear of a Trump victory is that it will lead sooner or later to JD Vance taking over as president or de facto president, maybe because Trump dies in office, but more likely because Vance and his cronies use Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to declare Trump incompetent and force him out of office. Vance is much more focussed and diligent than Trump and just as ruthless.
I think you hit the nail somewhat on the head. It is likely Harris will win. Give any legitimate pollster truth serum and then ask if the polls are any good and they’ll tell you they’re basically rubbish for structural reasons (basically it nearly impossible to poll anymore). I tell all my friends here in NY that it comes down to woman, who post the Dobbs decision have swung the margin in nearly every election since vs. non-college educated men. As Harris has a superior ground game, and Trump doesn’t even have one the ingredients for a comfortable win should be in place.
As you say, the question then becomes can Trump get it to the Supreme Court? If he can, all bets are off.
As to violence, in the short run I am more sanguine if he loses. I think he stokes it if his trials resume so that his supporters will protect him.
If he wins then I think he will do all he can to cause protests, not necessarily violent, so he can declare martial law and cement his authority over the country. In a way this is the bigger danger in my view.
Hello, this is my first post. I have been following Richard’s site for a little while and find it very thought provoking,
Is it not reasonable to assume that while Gore could not reasonably have predicted the Jeb job of 2000, Harris’s people will be very aware of the eventuality of election theft and be all over it legally etc?
Although Kamala is a product of the establishment, a corporatist who has blood on her hands via her pal Nettenyahu, the alternative is the downfall of any remnant of democracy. Trump will only transform America into the Russian oligarch state that he admires and respects, replete with military parades and the rounding up of “others” for political gain. The dummying down of America is evident in this election, which should not even be close. The uneducated masses and their evangelical nationalist fascist cohorts, aided by the patently unjust Electoral College, gerrymandering, voter suppression and a stacked not so supreme court, will usher in the demise of America.