The Telegraph features a constituency-based opinion poll of 14,000 people conducted by YouGov, funded by unknown Tory supporters, this morning that predicts that the election result would be as follows:
The article does not appear to be behind the usual Telegraph paywall.
These are what the Telegraph think the important results, but with the impact of Reform show:
It is suggested that the SNP will fall to 25 seats.
The Reform impact is interesting. It shows that in a first-past-the-post system, bizarre outcomes arise. But will the Tories listen and support PR? I doubt it.
What I do not recall doubt is that sometime in the next twelve months, the TCP (Tory Continuity Party), sometimes called LINO (Labour In Name Only), will win a general election, and the ethos of neoliberal government will roll onward, as destructive as it has been for decades.
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This recent offering by Juice Media is apposite:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sRoYvFTE3c
(the language used is not for the faint-hearted).
Very good
Thank you – a perfect summation of how I see the Uk body politic & using language that is forthright and correct..
Having regained the right to vote – I will be using it to minimise the tory & labour seat count.
That’s your take.. most are happy to see a moderate centre left PM in starmer take office. He seems to have successfully sidelined the hard left which has previously made the Party unelectable. That is a good thing.
Starmer is further to the right than Cameron was.
Is that your definition of centre left, which is where at most I am? If so, you have politics very wrong.
“Is that your definition of centre left, which is where at most I am? “
Well let’s agree this.. if your ideas were adopted by the Labour Party, they would be in office for one term. I sense that Starmer could have a tenure similar to Blair.
I don’t agree that
The people of this country are craving non-neoliberal, post austerity government and Labour will give them more of that same thing to allow the Tories back next time.
There is nothing remotely left about Starmer
Starmer makes so many U-turns I’m not sure it’s yet possible to determine where on the political spectrum his Government will lie. That’s the only hope I have left.
“Hard left making the party unelectable”?
Not according to this study:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/10/adopting-rightwing-policies-does-not-help-centre-left-win-votes
True
I think Mr MacInnes has offered the reply to Mr Milton in his link: “Voters tend to prefer the original to the copy”.
People may be misinformed and misled, but vote what seems to them to be believable (okay, they are often hopeless judges). Conservatives may be complete charlatans and incompetent; but there is no doubt they believe in neoliberalsim and austerity. Nobody knows what Labour believes in; other than wanting to be in Government. Labour hopes that difference is still enough to win an election.
I suppose you think Corbyn was hard left? The policy offering under JC/JMD was at most centre-left social democratic. *Relatively* speaking that may seem hard-left compared to where the Labour Party leadership is today! Your assumption that it was ‘hard left’ policies that lost Labour the election in 2017 and 2019 is also incorrect. But I imagine there is little point in arguing that case with people who still think Starmer is ‘moderate centre-left’ after all the evidence of the last few years.
If you think that Starmer vanquished what you call the “hard left”, then your Overton Window is well past the time it was given a good cleaning.
Labour’s “hard left” would be mainstream social-democrats in a polity not rendered fit only for breeding despair and fascism by neoliberalism.
Precisely
@Philip Milton.
Starmer “moderate Centre Left”???
What planet are you on? In fact, what dimension?
Starmer us a RW vandal, WAY to the right of Edward Heath, who wouldn’t have touched him with with a bargepole
Totally untrustworthy, and authoritarian to the point of being dictatorial
On his untrustworthiness and authoritarianism, see these two pieces by Peter Oborne.
https://www.doubledown.news/watch/2023/september/25/exposed-keir-starmer-liar-murdochs-man-candidate-mi5-peter-oborne
And
https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uk-labour-starmer-authoritarianism-alarm-bells-ringing
On his dictatorial tendency, you only gave to see how he has transformed the internationalist, democratic Labour Party into a Faux-Labour, virtually Stalinist “democratic centralist” shitshow, in which the supreme decision-making body, Annual Conference – formerly Labour’s Parliament – has been downgraded to only having authority WHILE IN SESSION!!! In other words, a farce!!
It’s not for nothing that I dub him Sir Keir “little Keef Stalin” Starmer, while the director General Secretary, David Evans, I now call David “Dzerzhinsky” Evans, since he and Starmer have resurrected the CHEKA, to keep dissident Party members in line.
Be warned -Starmer will be a DIRE and DISASTROUS and DESTRUCTIVE PM, who conned his way into the Leadership, by
DECEIT – pretending to be “Continuity Corbyn”
DECEPTION – keeping his unpleasant, dodgy backers and funders secret till after the close of the poll
MASSIVE OVERFUNDING – at levels that would have resulted in his being disqualified for breaking spending limits in a statutory poll
POSSIBLE VOTE-RIGGING via the lax membership criteria the operating.
The man is a dangerous fraud, “a clear and present danger to decency, democracy and the common good”, nd should be opposed by all progressive forces and voters.
Apropos Mr Milton’s comments.
In the 1970s through to the 2000s I was a moderate, democratic centrist, member of Labour with a fondness for Tony Benn (although I didn’t fully share his scepticism about the EU); I wanted PR and utility nationalisation, but not in the Militant doctrinaire fashion.
Within the last decade I have, without any change in stance, been re-labelled as ‘hard left’, ‘antisemitic’ for supporting the longstanding party policy over Palestine and a ‘dinosaur’ for wanting to expel private profit-making from the NHS.
I have absolutely no doubt that the use of the pejorative ‘LINO’ is now justified. There has been a highly successful coup that has still not fully worked through.
Instead of the “you have to move with the times”, why don’t people admit they’ve been conned? Ah, ‘cognitive dissonance’ at work.
In order to justify continuing to support ‘Labour’ under Starmer, people project onto Starmer virtuous intentions he’s demonstrated he hasn’t got, and demonise those who still adhere to the basics of Labour pre-2000 (and certainly pre 2019).
Thanks
I think when it comes to voting at the next election, I’m very clear as to if I will vote, the circumstances under which I will vote, and who I will vote for,while also recognising the limitations of what the outcome may be. My priority is as follows.
1) I want to see the Tory Party mortally wounded. Totally annihalated if possible. They are an evil. It is clear they are anti-state, anti-public service, anti-anything to do with serving the collective good. They are also anti-democratic, have no interest in the public good, and live by the spread of hate and fear, namely culture wars, while promoting insecurity in every part of our lives. That is what right wing politics is all about. The next election gives us a chance to put a steak through the heart of the Tory vampire. I’m all for it, even if that means….
2) Voting for someone like Starmer. To be clear, provided there is a chance of beating the Tory in my FPTP constituency, I will vote for whoever can do that. Right now, it looks like Lab. I would vote Lib Dem or Green if they had the best chance. I would even vote Reform if it got the Tory out. Now just to be clear, I have no time for Reform UK, they are what the Tories want to be, but if they took this seat from the Tories, I’d place a peg over my nose and vote for them. Of course, none of this is democracy. I’d prefer to vote for someone because I belive in their policies. If we had PR, I would most likely vote Green, because it would mean something. Instead we have the sh-t show that FPTP gives us. No real choice, except what is the lesser of two evils. Which leads to….
3) Only Labour can really change the system to the real democracy that we need. There is one big difference between the Labour and the Tory Party – the makeup of their membership and core support. The Tory Party is rabid right wing, infiltrated by Ukippers and Brexit Party types. This is the membership that voted for Truss and would probably vote for the fascist, Braverman. The Labour membership are (still) further to the left than Starmer. They now support PR, largely because I think they finally recognise that FPTP is not Lab’s friend. Even if there is a landslide next time for Lab, it comes from sucking up to middle England FPTP seats by offering Tory lite policies. Lab has no future if that is all they do, because the Tories and their client media will simply go further to the right and expect Lab to go with them. Starmer could be a disaster, Reeves too, but I doubt the Lab membership will stand by and watch there own party as a Govt destroy everything they stand for. Starmer risks an internal civil war and ultimately break up of the Lab Party if all he does is a Tory imitation.
I believe that Labour is now at last chance saloon. If they waste victory at the next election by simply playing Tory lite, then things will be far worse when the Tories next get back in – fascism awaits. There is a chance to stop the Tories for good now and that is to recognise that historically the progressive vote has always been there – the majority – Even during the heady period of Thatcherism, there were more progressives, it was just that FPTP split that vote, and the Tories loved that.
So, I will most likely vote Lab, but it is a borrowed vote. I’m one of those who will vote Lab because they are not the Tories and in my constituency they look like the ones that will beat the Tory. However, they will need to show they are substantially different to the Tories when in power. If they don’t, they will never get my vote again. It is finally time for Labour to wake up and smell the coffee.
Thanks
Agree 100% with MarP. However I would add the caveat that the levers of power, with ability to veto democratic motions or suspend branches, are in the hands of the Starmer/Blairite faction at national and regional level. that includes the ability to impose non-local or right wing candidates. Why I left my local party was the list of topics you were not allowed to discuss or motions you could not put. Branches have been suspended and members expelled for allowing proscribed topics to be aired. That is old Communist Party democratic centralism in action!
Responding to MarP & Mr Griffin, this line (by Mr Griffin) what struck me:
“people project onto Starmer virtuous intentions he’s demonstrated he hasn’t got” –
couple this to the quasi-Communist party approach to “the party line” and it is clear that Labour will be worse than the tories – worse because they will raise hopes & then dash them (because there will be no way for members to change anything) – & this will lead to buyers regret in the populace & then fascism @ the next election as Reform or some other bunch rise to prominance.
Labour is New-Labour – with the same old faces spouting the same old re-cycled slightly diluted tired tory nonsense.
ABL – Anything But Labour should be the motto for the next election. Indeed, if they fail – then Starmer would be out in a heart beat. I hope they fail, they offer less than nothing to Uk serfs..
This is Richard’s blog, so my reply will only come if he kindly consents to allow it. Thank you for your clear statement of voting intent. I have been undecided for some time on what is best because I cannot in all honesty vote positively for any party in the coming election. As a woman, I feel a strong compulsion to vote, and if the policies of a properly competent, socially focussed and economically sound party were available, I’d go that way. But my focus will be Tories out no matter what – despite the fact that I live in one of their much safer seats. Your commentary has spurred that decision on.
I agree totally with your reasoning and will vote Labour for exactly the same reasons.
With regard to the blog, I think that Richard is right in that we will get a rather stymied Labour party in power this year.
Let’s also be accurate and remind ourselves that Blair did not walk on water and he got in on the basis that the Labour stuck to Tory spending plans initially so that he too was stymied in some sort of way. New Labour was a very mixed bag of old Labour and proto-Starmer (and don’t mention Iraq).
I also think that what happened to Corbyn is a story yet to be told. I’m still wanting answers as to why in all my rock gigging life Corbyn is the only politician I’ve heard a crowd spontaneously sing about at a gig in the modern era. Something that happened at other gigs too in 2016/2017 before the election. I heard of visits in towns where there was standing room only to see him.
If what undid Corbyn was BREXIT, then let it be said that he was undone by a fucking lie but hey – join the queue behind the suckers who have been undone by it too.
We may never know just how shook up the Establishment (that is the Tory party and their version of a Labour party) really was by Corbyn’s rise and what a threat he was but this can be gleaned by what happened afterwards as we came to grips with Johnson (or how Johnson actually got to grips with us).
Either way it seems that we are going to get the Labour party that the Establishment think we should have and nothing more.
Some will call that a result. I can assure you that they do not know what they are talking about and these will be people whose lifestyles have not dropped as precipitously or at all in the last 14 years or so compared to others.
I was surprised to be told by another chartered accountant today that they would support a new party if Corbyn formed one because the country needs a left of centre party and there isn’t one. I admit this was not what I expected from them, but shows moods are changing.
Very good post PSR – nails it. The only sure thing… the Uk electorate is heading into uncharted territory.
Personally? Hung parliament & LINO forced to compromise.
(& fingers crossed that the Tories sink below 100 seats – “that’l learn em”).
Agreed.
The Tories will lose the election irrespective of Labour’s policy offer – or lack of it. Starmer is almost guaranteed to be in number 10 this autumn. He doesn’t need your reluctant votes. A Labour landslide would be a disaster, not least in terms of the approaching climate catastrophe which requires urgent radical action now – action that Starmer’s ‘fiscal rules’ will not allow.
Do not lend your vote to Starmer – it will only contribute to his majority and embolden him and his acolytes. Whereas a hung parliament and a further general election within 12-18 months, would force the Labour Party to dump Starmer and think seriously about offering meaningful opposition to the Tories – perhaps based around some of the still publicly popular 2017/19 manifesto pledges.
Voting for the lesser of two evils, in this particular instance, will backfire. It will help to bake evil into the system. Urgent action on climate and other issues is needed now. If we let Starmer kick the can further down the road, we will miss the boat. It will be too late.
Tories have very little support here in Oxford, so I can safely vote my conscience in support of the ‘Invisible Party’, otherwise called the Green Party. The Greens are a truly Socialist Party who have a wide spectrum of socioeconomic as well as strong environmental policies, all totally democratically voted for by the membership; many of our policies have strong public appeal. There is no doubt that despite having no PMs in Parliament, Reform, with or without their masia Farage, will be offered a disproportionately large share of air time while the Green Party will be marginalized into ‘other’ non-existence. Welcome to the UK’s warped idea of democracy.
Politics Live did manage to discuss wealth inequality today with the topic bolstered by the obscenity that is Davos. In contrast to the Tory excuses for more of the same, a new book by Labour MP Liam Burns entitled: ‘The Inequality of Wealth,” was presented. If only Labour could manage to ditch the lying skunk Starmer, a new leader might try to adopt radical ideas like Burns for reversing the increasing inequality in the UK. Starmer gets more unpopular by the day and I imagine the election could see a very low turnout. Shock, pleasant surprise, also on today’s show, Harry Lambert of the New Statesman spoke up for taxing wealth and highlighted the injustice of taxing income, but not investment dividends, earnings from property etc. It was refreshing to hear and I think he must have read your Taxing Wealth Report.
Re the chances of the Greens. Below are the seats where, apparently, they have the best chance, based on that Tory commissioned YouGov poll.
The following list shows the 10 constituencies where the Green Party is expected to perform best:
Brighton Pavilion – Greens projected to win with 49% to Labour’s 32%
Bristol Central – Greens projected to come second on 38% to Labour’s 42%
Dulwich and West Norwood – Greens projected to come second on 27% to Labour’s 52%
Hackney North and Stoke Newington – Greens projected to come second on 24% to Labour’s 56%
Hackney South and Shoreditch – Greens projected to come second on 20% to Labour’s 61%
Sheffield Central – Greens projected to come second on 20% to Labour’s 58%
Holborn and St Pancras – Greens projected to come second on 19% to Labour’s 54%
Manchester Rusholme – Greens projected to come second on 19% to Labour’s 62%
Waveney Valley – Greens projected to come third on 19% to Labour’s 25% and the Tories’ 34%
Bristol South – Greens projected to come third on 18% to the Tories’ 19% and Labour’s 46%
https://leftfootforward.org/2024/01/the-10-constituencies-where-yougovs-mega-poll-suggests-the-green-party-will-perform-best/
Unfortunately, right now, because of FPTP, they may only get one or two seats. All of the above seats it is between the greens and Lab, with the latter well ahead in most of them. I’d like to think the Greens will challenge the Tories in some middle England seats, where they did well in the local council results, but that could be a big ask at the GE.
This is odd when, for example, the Greens are doing very well in central Suffolk in council elections.
I wonder what the prior assumptions used to weight results are? These significantly impact forecasts.
“It is suggested that the SNP will fall to 25 seats.” This was Richard’s comment on the findings of the YouGov poll commissioned by Conservative supporters. Right away there’s a whiff of suspicion in the air: what restrictions were made by these Tory supporters when commissioning the poll, what was the wording of the questions, what weighting was used to adjust the prospective voting, how representative of the wider electorate were the people polled in Scotland?
The weighting issue is ever-present in Scottish polls as all recent polls bar one by polling companies outside of Scotland have continued to use weighting that reflects the voting in the 2014 Independence referendum. Despite this, these polls consistently show support for independence at around 50%, and the one poll which didn’t use 2014 data returned a 53% poll in favour of independence. Another factor here is that the Scottish public by and large regards Holyrood favourably and here to stay, so why vote for the Tories, who wish to annul devolution, or Labour, who have been ominously silent about the Tories undermining it? Brexit is yet another factor here: the Scottish economy, particularly farming and fishing, was and still is hard hit by it. The Tories currently hold the seats most affected, mainly in the north-east, but they are likely to change hands due to a cocktail of Tory incompetence and, given Labour’s support for Brexit, who else is likely to take them? The Lib-Dems are seen as largely ineffectual outside of their single-constituency heartland in Orkney and Shetland, so it looks like either the Greens or SNP (who are in coalition in Holyrood).
While FPTP will undoubtedly “queer the pitch” in a country where PR is the norm for all intra-Scotland elections, I really can’t believe that SNP seats at Westminster will be reduced from 43 to 25 (a 42% reduction). Why would 50 to 53% of the Scottish electorate vote for parties committed to maintaining the Union and undermining devolution? The residents of East Kilbride were enraged that their MP had effectively gifted a seat by defecting to the Tories and gifting them a seat they’d never been close to winning; so much so that I can’t see any party winning that constituency other then SNP. As I’ve said before, if there are Labour gains in Scotland they’re more likely to be at the expense of the Tories. Two other factors may have some effect – the collossally-biased UK MSM and the current disarray within the SNP as it undertakes a significant generational change.
Noted