I have already mentioned commenting on Radio 2 yesterday, and what was discussed, in another post this morning.
An hour or so after doing that I was in Ely, where I live, and met someone who had heard me. He asked whether I thought things were really as bad as I portrayed on air, and I suggested that if anything they were worse.
The acquaintance I was talking to is, I know, a person with little interest in politics. He treats me as a bit of a curiosity precisely because I am fascinated by the topic. That made his next observation the more interesting. He suggested that we will not get through the next year without unrest. On reflection, he called it rioting. And what is more he thought it not just energy prices that would deliver this. Food prices, mortgages (a matter, I know, that much concerns him) and failing services would all, he thought add to the woes.
I think he may be right. We discussed the poll tax protests of the early 90s, when he was in Scotland and knew the feelings it created, and agreed that this time the anger would be very much worse.
Of course, we could both be wrong. Truss might have the most amazing luck, or she might be a genius political operator at a level I and many others have not yet realised. Both are possible, I admit. But luck looks right out of stock at this moment and yesterday's acceptance speech by Truss was well up there in the pantheon of her great oratory moments, alongside her cheese and pork market speeches, and did not offer the slightest bit of political hope as a result.
I fear my acquaintance might be right. He was sure of it. And of all the people who would have predicted such a thing I would have put him amongst the least likely.
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I sorry to have to concur with the prediction of your acquaintance, the vast majority of people are either just getting by or struggling at present, the slightest negative will tip them over the edge into desperation.
I go a long way to agreeing with this post. I live on the outskirts of a medium sized, dyed-in-the-wool Conservative town. The cul-de-sac has 14 houses, all owner-occupiers, and all resident for at least the last 12 years (ie highly stable). I know only 4 households to speak to on any level at all. Any conversation usually involves a quick greeting (not by name – we’re not that intimate!) and a short comment on either the weather or the gardens at the front. Only our direct next door neighbours have anything more to say and that neither frequently nor for long. This isn’t a complaint by the way – just scene setting.
Recently 2 of these 4 households have spoken to me (ie they initiated contact – very unusually), and in each case the subsequent conversation (ie more than a quick comment) was about energy costs and their fears on this subject. And I use the word ‘fears’ appropriately.
If this very middle class, very Tory, employed and home-owning population is fearful (an extrapolation I know), then we may be really headed for trouble.
Sorry to not be more cheerful.
Cathy
Thanks and interesting
The evidence of stress is high and growing
Doesn’t the fact that the likelihood of social unrest has risen so sharply ironically make it less likely?
Truss will be forced (and has probably already been forced) into a u-turn on policy (that was quick) which will involve substantial government spending (perhaps dressed up as guarantees) to deal with this risk. This will be funded in exactly the same way as the funding of COVID (see taxreaech.org,U.K. for details) which will lead to some “interesting” economic and political debates….
Any suggestions on the dates at which QE will be reintroduced in both the U.K. and Europe?
The last is unknown
Or, improbably, as James Meadway writes in the New Statesman today, perhaps the Tories are going to admit that there is a Magic Money Tree after all. (https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2022/09/trussonomics-tories-printing-money-borrowing)
Even if they do, we can be sure it will be applied to support businesses, rather than people, but this is perhaps the moment for everyone to double down on supporting and promoting your efforts to gain a better public understanding of how money works in reality.
Mr Kerr-Smith,
in a comment on another thread I quoted from Paul Johnson (IFS), who was interviewed on BBC Radio Scotland News yesterday. Asked if Truss is going to require a “magic money tree”, Johnson repled: “she is going to discover one”. Developing the theme of her finance credentials as a past Secretary to the Treasury, Johnson went on “she was a fan of austerity”, at a time when – he says: “we could borrow cheap” and there was “a respectable argument for borrowing more”.
Thus we already have a) an acknowledgement of the Conservative disaster of using the false narrative of 2010 that we had ‘run out of money’ and the deficit and debt were unsustainable; and b) a moving of the goal posts to acknowledge the inevitability of further resort to the Magic Money Tree by the Conservatives (as they always do, and know it).
The crisis is still very, very likely to be seriously mishandled (especially as it is the now circulating of resort – again – to Sunak’s earlier, failed deferred loan scam, with the most vulnerable burdened by long term debt they are ill-equipped to manage), with further catastrophic consequences for all.
Agreed
I have written on two occasions to my MP and sent three emails, since the last election. I have not even had an acknowledgment. This is not unusual according to other people in the constituency. No one seems to know who he backed for leader.
Yet he got 62% in the last election.
He might feel he can just ride this out and that the local electorate will just accept what happens. Like your acquaintance I think we are in a different situation.
There was a report in the Sunday Times that the Police are worried about a combination of acquisitive crime, civil unrest and corruption on their own ranks over the coming winter
The Tories probably want, even need, unrest to help frame the next general election, whilst adding more authoritarian laws.
Truss might call an early election, after enacting a few Saviour policies.
Whilst many deride Johnson as a fool, he’s not and his legacy will be enabling a future landscape of continued Tory rule. It seemed in recent MSM outputs there are just two legitimate politics: Tory-101 (Truss or fill in blank) and Tory-102 (Sunak or fill in blank). More than enough choice!
Johnson’s smorgasbord of ‘reforms’ spells a grim future for any decent democracy and change.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/09/how-boris-johnson-rigged-british-politics-for-the-tories.html
PS Richard your output is phenomenal. Your ideas are getting into our city council debates. Some say “Yeah, that chap – he has good ideas!”
Thanks
A telling conversation Richard…………….however,
Of all the things the Tories have got, we must accept that they they have a certain genius for survival.
It’s not Truss that really worries me – although her ideological position is worrying enough. Truss – like Thatcher – is just an avatar for a much more malign, unseen group of people.
It’s those behind the scenes that worry me – her ‘advisors’. Her crew will stoop to what ever level they need to divert people’s attention from the fact that THEY are the problem. They will even take us to the brink of war – including civil war – to do this.
This genius for survival is based on the utter contempt they have for the rest of us.
Hard work usually generates luck – we all know that and you can work hard at being evil or good. But the problem is that luck does not discriminate between the two I’m afraid.
This is something that Labour does not realise and it’s not working hard enough. The Tories may well prevail because their evil is well funded and organised.
And it means little rest for you and your ‘band’ of brothers.
PSR, one should never underestimate the Tories’ ability to both
1. Self destruct…
2…(and yet) survive in power
During COVID, they like the US, responded with a massive and coordinate fiscal and monetary response. As Richard noted last year, all of that COVID response has already been paid for.
Strip away the rhetoric and they knew what to do and did it. Ok, the first bit might be a stretch
Of course, Sunak, the subsequently pretended that he had a moral responsibility to balance the budget in order to appease the mass public.
So it would be dangerous to underestimate them again. Look for another massive response and further monetisation of debt in the next six months to stave off the energy crisis.
Truss may have aspirations to model herself on her heroine but I doubt she wants here own version of the poll act riots quite so early in her premiership.
So Fiona, we agree!
The tragedy is that the only thing to unlock this cycle is possibly HMO coming up with something better and truly breaking through the market orientated ‘solutions’ on offer.
I would love to see who is advising Labour.
And the following them home after work to see who they hobnob with, or looking at their email traffic.
I suspect that all political advisors these days come from the same place.
The coming unrest is a feature of conversations I have had, together with a rise in crime that will probably overwhelm the police forces ability to respond. The NHS is buckling and local government will not be able to respond to an increase in homelessness as evictions and repossessions rise. We are on the edge of collapse as you have said many times and I am not sure any current politician has the answers. We are suffering from the fact that “any gang daring enough and unscrupulous enough, and smart enough not to seem illegal, can grab hold of the entire government and have all the power” (It Can’t happen here by Sinclair Lewis). The Tories have grabbed the power and looted the countries wealth but are now devoid of ideas to resolve the problems they have created. I think the knee jerk reaction to a crisis of this magnitude could be a declaration of emergency this would indeed a dangerous time and a populist opportunist with a plan that appears to answer the problem could easily take control to the detriment of all of us.
I have to say, and I am certainly not advocating violent protests, that we, as a population, have been slumbering for far too long. Lies deceit and corruption have been normalised and many of us prefer to be outraged by a few poor bastards trying to cross the channel in crappy boats.
The police have more powers than ever before yet enjoy less support from society and their own leaders than ever before.
It would be apposite if the first riot kicks off because the police tried to arrest protestors for being too loud rather than for anything they were shouting about.
I would never advocate violence
Protest is totally appropriate though
Be careful not to cause any noise or inconvenience to anyone though.
The last significant civil unrest in England was in August 2011 sparked off by the unlawful killing by the Met police of Mark Duggan in Tottenham who the police mistakenly thought was holding a firearm. The cause of the unrest/rioting/looting and 5 deaths was a mixture of economic deprivation after the 2008 recession, unemployment, racism and opportunistic looting. It spread to other cities such as Bristol, Birmingham, Liverpool, Nottingham………
The position today is similar but worse – the crisis of unaffordable gas. electricity, food, rent, mortgage, and general inflation that could be 22% or more by 2023. Also, racism is still rife in the Met and other police forces. If the “cost of living crisis” is not dealt with quickly and the government takes a “tough” line in policing unrest then it could explode even further than 2011 making the police battering of the Sarah Everard vigil seem like a quiet Tory surburban tea party.
It was responded to with a vicious crack-down which replaced voluntary JPs with salaried District Justices who imposed sentences well beyond those recommended in the sentencing guidelines (anti fracking protestors met the same fate) and must have ruined many lives. The state knows how to crush the despairing.
Unrest is highly likely I feel. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11177455/Police-prepare-tidal-wave-violent-crime-public-disorder-cost-living-bites.html
Crude anecdote..
I noticed a nearby local supermarket has blocked off one end of the spirits aisle for a couple of weeks.
I asked about this apparently people are running in grabbing bottle of vodka etc and making a run for it never mind setting off alarms. They then go on to sell the booze to raise cash.
This is not in deprived area.