I share this tweet. For background data click on it and read the following tweets. The reality is that even Matt Hancock says that the delta variant is now 40% more transmissible. We could be in for a very horrid few weeks. A Covid peak now much higher than January now looks to be possible. If it is 60% more transmissible, as many argue, then the modelling is not even done:
We are now here. pic.twitter.com/WFxLSPUtVD
— Dr Duncan Robertson (@Dr_D_Robertson) June 6, 2021
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It is a numbers game, although each of those numbers represents a real person and their friends and family.
If the government blithely allows infections to jump up again to multiple tens of thousands per day, what proportion of people might be vulnerable (either unvaccinated, or in the unfortunate portion of people for whom one or two vaccinations is not fully effective), what proportion might become seriously ill, what proportion might die, and what proportion might suffer long term impacts.
Has the vaccination scheme substantially broken the link between infection and adverse health outcomes?
But what new variants might emerge if we allow the virus to run rampant through literally millions of partially vaccinated people?
What does the government’s modelling look like? Or are they proceeding on a wing and a prayer?
The last
I get my second AZ jab today – just in time!!
I don’t know about anyone else but I am not letting my guard down.
Yet over the last sunny days we’ve had, I’ve seen people letting theirs down en masse. It does not augur well.
I am remaining very cautious
Second one won’t really take effect for a couple of weeks so not quite on time! I’m 8 days after my 2nd dose of the AZ so probably heading towards ‘peak’ protection in a week or two.
Cases or hospitalisations and deaths?
All are going to rise
Hang on;
1) The 7-day average for hospital admissions in the North West, ground zero of the India variant, has gone from a minimum of 13 on 27 April to 23 on 29 May, it hasn’t even doubled yet.
2) The 7-day average for patients in hospital in the North West has gone from 150 on 15 May to 178 on 30 May.
3). And as the CEO of the NHS group pointed out, these are younger people who aren’t as sick and need much less care. They also have shorter stays.
4) So what does the Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance System say about COVID-19 emergency admissions?..“No Trend” that means they are flat..Acute Respiratory infections are up though, this is probably down to the increase in parainfluenza which is above usual winter levels
5) Finally, patients in hospital is still below SAGE’s best case “scenario” for the unlocking timetable:
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
The Govt may well delay the full reopening until more have been vaccinated. Going forward the science will lead to booster jabs. Lets hope the UK is able to stay above the curve and ensures the rollout is as successful as the initial jabs
This is how exponential growth works
It looks tiny at first and then it goes ballistic
This is the data forecast I am using – and it is very well researched https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2021/06/07/it-is-time-to-face-the-reality-of-the-coming-covid-wave/
Please stop looking back: these things work forward
I know full well what exponential means and I know it is a lazy definition. Given that the old and vulnerable are vaccinated and the vaccine provides significant protection against hospitalisation and the rate of vaccine continues at a decent rate I am interested to understand why you predict such a doom laden outlook??
I do expect that full restrictions will not be lifted until a greater proportion of the population are vaccinated but again I do not concur with your assessment. Maybe we will have have large numbers of the vaccinated population seriously ill and hospitalised but there is no evidence to suggest this will happen. You obviously think different.
Because world-leading scientists think it is going to happen and they were right before and I am certain they will be right this time
Now very politely take your pseudonym and stupid suggestions elsewhere
Delta cases in Bolton peaked and are now declining without hospitalisations reaching even a third of the January peak in the same area
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsTrust&areaName=Bolton%20NHS%20Foundation%20Trust
Even Independent SAGE are not calling for a rewind to Step 2 or further. Even Dr Robertson does not think, as you do in your thread, a further lockdown to be inevitable-
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1401491375481397252
And here’s a front-line view of all modelling –
https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1401403343667347458
Oh come on: if the modelling is anything close to being right no one thinks lockdown can be avoided. That’s just time. The focus is on stage 4 as yet, b ut I was asking people to lokom forward. when they do of course we have to reimpose restrictions
Unless you want tens of thousands more to die unnecessarily, of course
And why would you want to take the risk of that?
Firstly – sorry. I tried to leave this, but I’m like a dog with a bone…
@ Tina
You clearly don’t understand what exponential means. It doesn’t just mean big, or a lot, or fast.
“I know it’s a lazy definition”.
No, it isn’t. It’s actually a very well (and easily) described growth/decay mode, which happens to pop up all over the place in the natural world.
As the rate of increase of exponential growth is proportional to the amount of whatever is growing, by the time you realise the issue is non-trivial, it’s too late. That’s why numerate (or even just observant) people are so twitchy about further relaxation when we’re clearly at the start of another wave. To relax further now (I’d even argue for rolling back a little for a couple of weeks) is just pure insanity.
To address the vaccine question.
The rate of vaccination is approximately linear (ie we’re vaccinating roughly the same number of people every week) plus we now know that 2 vaccines are required. Plus at least 3 weeks. If we let an exponential growth rip now, it’ll very quickly overtake our linear attempts to provide population immunity via vaccines and we’ll end up with many more unnecessary deaths and people suffering lifelong illness.
The whole culture around Covid severity denial, including “link between deaths and cases has been severed” (er, newsflash, it hasn’t!) is almost unbelievable and is eminently selfish. Even from a cold, dehumanised perspective, people’s lives are the economy.
So just calm down, accept that we’re in a pandemic, and stop trying to rush back to “normal”. A delay of weeks/ a couple of months now will save the whole country a lot of trouble, because if we lock down again it’ll be autumn before we can do anything again! (Exponential decrease takes much longer to decay back to a safe background than growth takes to reach dangerous levels)
Unfortunately, that’s the reality behind exponential patterns – not some f***ing platitudes about lazy descriptions.
Thank you
Well said and I appreciate you doing so
For (worrying) info:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1401797277409230850
25 new COVID19 cases are people who have been vaccinated twice, which is the equivalent of 400 new cases a day.
Better keep a low profile as have only one jab till next weekend – and then it’s a fortnight or so for it to take effect…
Indeed Chile which is well vaccinated but used predominately one of the less effective Chinese vaccines, now has considerable problems with an overstretched but not yet quite overwhlemed – health system.
The twitter thread on this makes interesting reading..you seem to have been dismissed as a complete crank.. i bet you will be the source of a lot of fun for undergrads at sheffield
I have looked at the comments – and of course there are those who disagree
Many also support the thinking
And what will undergraduates think? They will like having someone who is provocative teaching them. Maybe you are not aware as to what undergraduate education is all about? It would very strongly seem that you are not.