New unemployment data is out this morning. I am going to use a Tweet from a TUC research officer to provide the key data:
New labour market data: 370,000 redundancies in Aug-Oct 2020.
A record high, higher than any three-month period during the recession, and a 212% increase on the same period last year. pic.twitter.com/qjtkbQ8Lx7
— Alex Collinson (@Alex__Collinson) December 15, 2020
The fact is that despite all government efforts, the number of redundancies from August to October was at a record high in the modern era.
Businesses really did fail.
Companies were forced to make cuts.
And the fear of furlough ending resulted in very large numbers of people losing their jobs.
If anything, we know matters have now got worse. Big retailers have failed. Hospitality businesses without Christmas will have no choice but make people redundant, even if they think that they can survive.
And furlough has not ended as yet.
Whilst Brexit has not happened. And whatever deal is struck that will have a large, negative, impact.
Because of the way the ONS does its stats, which seriously benefits the government at present, the true scale of this crisis is not apparent as yet. But for those thinking 2021 is going to be a bonanza, think again. It won't be.
The reason for saying that is straightforward. When people fear redundancy they do not spend. Many in the private sector will have that fear. And Sunak is already offering austerity. Job cuts in the state sector will follow. No one turns on the spending taps in that scenario.
We are in trouble. And it can only get worse.
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I will just say that trying to give any credit to the national institutes of broadcast and media and controlled politicians is a counselling despair.
Greenwich Labour leader turns over to Tory Williamson and changes mind about closing schools a few days earlier whilst stating that cases are out of control because it will cost money to defend against the governments murderous intent using the Emergency powers.
Not a peep out of Starmer.
Not a single peep about Eton having shut its doors many days ago for a undisclosed (1 or 2 positives only? ) and NO CENSURE UNDER THE EMERGENCY LEGISLATION!
Isn’t there some law lords or barristers who care to take up the cudgels against such blatant hypocrisy, conspiracy to kill and plain evil? Certainly the MSM ain’t interested even in the face of the latest confirmation of Excess Deaths and the medical journals unprecedented joint editorials BEGGING the government to discourage the mixing of families next week.
All professional bodies have a duty to stand up and be counted now – I’m asking for the Accountants to do so. Please convey my appeal.
The medics are
I am not sure it is really accountant’s job to do that
The government is spending hundreds of billions into the economy at the moment. You say that government spending has a huge multiplier effect on GDP, and that this spending won’t ever have to be repaid because of QE.
So where’s the problem, and why are things going to get worse?
If they do, why can’t government spend ever more to cover the difference, by your logic?
The private sector is running out of cash
And the government is planning to exacerbate that
Next problem, I can solve that quickly?
You say elsewhere that government deficits are private sector savings. The government is running a huge deficit. So how then is the private sector running out of cash?
What exactly is the government doing to exacerbate that?
The problem I am having is that you make claims that contradict other things you say, but claim both are true when they can’t be. It makes it very hard to follow what you think.
Sorry – this is nonsense
There is no homogenous private sector
The wrong people have the money in the private sector – and the private sector SMEs do not have money
I am not making a contradictory claim, at all
You are making up objections
I imagine the lockdowns will continue, probably nationwide, till the end of next summer at least. This won’t be from medical necessity or even prudence, rather to discourage protest against the unfolding horrorshow of Brexit. We may well see the weekend, the eight-hour day, the NHS and any concept of holiday from work all done away with in this brief period too. Really now only the EU can save us from that dismal prospect.
Steve Barclay on the radio this morning, banging on about the government’s comprehensive support package. Except that of course it leaves millions of people out. The government has known about the problem for month and months but they still haven’t filled the gaps. Many of the schemes are generous enough if you qualify, but they have hard edges and many individuals with their own specific circumstances fall between the cracks. It is still not good enough.
Any chance the MSM can call out the ridiculous fraud that is the claimed 4.9% unemployment figure? Putting aside for a moment those who are employed who have had their hours slashed (I know a few people in my social circle who have been cut down from full-time hours to 10 or fewer per week), it simply isn’t credible to claim that unemployment is this low in relation to the labour market catastrophe that continues to unfold. Even accounting for furlough, it just doesn’t add up.