This tweet by a University College, London professor highlighting her own Newsnight debut last night confirms that the reopening of the economy is not about following the science:
Had my @BBCNewsnight debut last night responding to the 4th July reopening... was a bit daunting but I'm glad I managed to get across the risks of suddenly changing lots of things at once... https://t.co/6BeBJNvFsS
short clip below https://t.co/pylsUZVNlx
— Prof. Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) June 24, 2020
So what is the real plan?
Hed immunity of course. And saying it's all our fault when a second wave happens because we did not follow 1 meter plus, whatever that means.
Or gross government irresponsibility, in other words.
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For this person, this is not about beating this virus. Her failure to take the opportunity to promote hand hygiene shows that. New Zealand and Taiwan headline on hand hygiene ALL THE TIME, explaining that between 10-15 seconds contact with soapy water the lipid membrane collapses in.
Her agenda seems to be – beat the government, not the virus.
Anyway, have you seen the latest R estimates – quite interesting. Lots of reason for optimism in it.
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
You find R ratings at approaching 1 a cause for optimism?
Why?
John,
If you scroll down to the box ‘Scottish ‘R’ Number’ you’ll note that it is less than one, but that the Scottish Government is not putting their citizens at the risk that Westminster seems determined to subject England to.
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
Me? I’ll happily continue with their guidelines when it means that it will continue to keep me, my family and my community safe.
Johnson’s “wash your hands while singing happy birthday” has done so much good hasn’t it, including to himself…
The UK death toll is the highest in Europe and one of the highest in the world. This doctor is simply focusing on her main message in the limited time she has on air: TTI is not in place in England, so it shouldn’t open up so quickly.
The only possible reasons for it not to be in place after so much time? Either incompetence, or the unofficial push for herd immunity. I vote for both at the same time, to be generous…
France, Spain, Italy all had worse first waves, but developed reliable TTI systems, either with apps or manual, or hybrid systems, devolved to regions.
Any cluster, and there are a few, are quickly spotted and dealt with, hence no further need for general lockdown, only local or regional ones at worst.
The UK has been pathetic. An absolute farce, only not very funny.
Johnson lied in PMQs on TV again saying nowhere else has adequate TTI.
They do. Very much so.
This is exactly what the more sceptical members of the public are saying universally.
How long will it be before we see those who are more cautious being picked on in the media as being influenced by another ‘project fear’ or being called ‘traitors’?
Soon
I note Alison Pearson of the Telegraph now follows me on Twitter…
‘I note Alison Pearson of the Telegraph now follows me on Twitter…’
I’m not sure that’s something to be proud of Richard (though I’m quite sure that you aren’t 🙂 )
Perhaps some of your musings/comments etc will give her pause for thought but (having read some of what she commits to paper) I sincerely doubt it. 🙁
It probably means I am on the target list…
I’m not conversant with her ‘work’.
I will check her out.
If it’s Alison Pearson, ‘stalking’ might be a more appropriate word! She edges into Hopkins territory, though once upon a time she was soft left.
A more useful person to follow on health matters is Roy Lilley – his blogs are full of sensible, non academic stuff based on years of experience of managing in, and a passion for the NHS.
I follow Roy
It does feel very much as if having signally failed to achieve any of its stated target aims the government has simply decided to go back to plan A. Herd Immunity and hope for the best.
This government continues to inspire no confidence in its handling of either the health crisis nor the economic consequences.
So we roll-on towards the sunlit uplands of no deal Brexit. Hoo Hoo Ray. The cartoonists who showed us Theresa May driving a bus over a cliff maybe should have kept that in reserve…. (?)
I think you might find an explanation in the following. When the first coronavirus cases were confirmed in the UK on the 31st January the BBC reported Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer, as saying:-
The NHS was “extremely well-prepared for managing infections”
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51325192
But herd immunity is not a “thing”! It is a farming term, it is *not* a scientific term. Somebody did a trawl of scientific literature, came up with nothing. â€â™‚ï¸
Mike Ryan from World Health Organisation on #HerdImmunity & #CoronaVirus “We have a second chance now to put in place the necessary public health interventions”
https://youtu.be/v39Re7kzOpQ?t=2874
‘But herd immunity is not a “thing”! ‘
It is a ‘thing’ though and is used in public health circles. Public health has a solid scientific, evidence-based approach to the management of maintenance of health and the prevention of disease. I know because a core element of my work for many years related to public health and I had the privilege to more deeply study it for a year under the auspices of Prof. John Ashton. The term ‘herd immunity’ is widely used, usually specifically in relation to vaccination. It may well be used in the farming sector but I can assure you it is also commonly used in the health sector.
Many medics dispute that
“…The term ‘herd immunity’ is widely used, usually specifically in relation to vaccination.”
Maybe so….in relation to vaccination where it is necessary to treat a critical mass of the population for it to offer effective protection; but not to describe a government policy of letting it rip through the population to see who is left standing. It is the latter which is widely objected to particularly so when it it is being proposed by those in power who are not in the higher risk groups and seem intent on operating a policy of euthanasia (to save money?). In the present situation THAT is what ‘herd immunity’ implies because that is how it was reportedly used. I can see why people might reasonably baulk at that.
Spot on Andy
‘Many medics dispute that’
Not sure which bit you say that they dispute Richard. Is it the term ‘herd immunity’? – common parlance in relation to vaccination in my day. Of course that might not be the case now. Or, the scientific, evidence-based bit? Well, there is much debate and dispute about various aspects as it applies to lifestyle – diet/nutrition, exercise etc and the required behavioural changes to effect a ‘healthier’ lifestyle. And then there’s the effectiveness and safety of vaccines but most docs I knew would endorse their use.
I am saying most medics simply don’t know the term – except with regard to vaccination
That’s not the way it is used here
Yes, I understand your reasoning and Andy Crow’s too and happen to agree with it. What this Govt. did, and is still doing, in respect of the management of Covid-19 has been, to say the least, scandalous. I agree that to attach the term ‘herd immunity’ as the underpinning thrust of Govt. strategy is to misuse the term indeed. Dangerously and negligently so, since we had absolutely no knowledge of the characteristics of the virus and our reaction to it (other than we were succumbing to a highly infectious agent).