Martin Wolf had this chart in the FT last night:
I think we can safely pin the case for Johnson's negligence on that chart alone.
We locked down too late.
And as Martin Wolf was also arguing, we're unlocking too early.
Making one mistake on timing was bad enough, and profoundly costly. Making two is unforgivable.
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The FT has done a fantastic job in attempting to give objective analysis of the data from around the world. They are aware of the misreporting and different definitions etc but even so it is chilling to see how the graphs all follow the same trajectory.
I read in the Sunday Times about the No 10 backroom discussions. It is no surprise that Johnson, being a ‘Libertarian’, fought against ordering a lockdown that would impinge on an individual’s right to do as they damn well please.
There was more of course but the far right believe everyone should stand on their own two feet and those that can’t and require help are too stupid to soar away to become rich. They really do believe that.
“There was more of course but the far right believe everyone should stand on their own two feet and those that can’t and require help are too stupid to soar away to become rich. They really do believe that.”
I totally agree with this. It staggers me that some people completely ignore all the contingencies and chance factors that determine outcomes for people, e.g. racism, sexism, class, etc., through to access to opportunities and so on (like, is the US currently bombing the crap out of my country or not, or is Putin engaged in some kind of hall of mirrors reality manipulation interference in domestic affairs, or have I been thrown under the neoliberal bus). We know that most wealth is inherited, and most of the rest is either won on the lottery, can be tracked to some other chance occurrence in business, or is due to the way that contracts are used to create a mal-distribution of rewards for labour and enforced through the threat of personal ruin through litigation, or the threat of permanent worklessness, and so on.
I think Eddie Izzard hits the nail on the head: Einstein comes up with “E=MC2” and goes down in history, and another physicist says, “Argh, I had F=MC2”. No prizes for second place.
All I can say is that I hope people remember all of this – especially if Jeremy Hunt is drafted in to replace Boris at some time, and given the harm Hunt did to the NHS whilst Health (Stealth?) Minister.
The ‘precautionary principle’ was completely discarded by this Govt from the off. They knew what was coming – the signs were obvious – yet they relied on imaginary thinking and a misplaced belief in ‘herd immunity’. If serious and concerted efforts had been made to establish a robust test and track system, when we knew what was coming, we wouldn’t be in the situation we find ourselves in. We are heading for a second spike and that can only extend the misery of millions.
What does the x-axis mean? I’m sorry I can’t get my head around that particularly with the word ‘estimated’ in there.
Estimated means best guess