The International Labour Organisation issued press release yesterday that said:
The continued sharp decline in working hours globally due to the COVID-19 outbreak means that 1.6 billion workers in the informal economy — that is nearly half of the global workforce — stand in immediate danger of having their livelihoods destroyed, warns the International Labour Organization.
According to the ILO Monitor third edition: COVID-19 and the world of work , the drop in working hours in the current (second) quarter of 2020 is expected to be significantly worse than previously estimated.
They added:
Compared to pre-crisis levels (Q4 2019), a 10.5 per cent deterioration is now expected, equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs (assuming a 48-hour working week). The previous estimate was for a 6.7 per cent drop, equivalent to 195 million full-time workers. This is due to the prolongation and extension of lockdown measures.
In particular they noted:
As a result of the economic crisis created by the pandemic, almost 1.6 billion informal economy workers (representing the most vulnerable in the labour market), out of a worldwide total of two billion and a global workforce of 3.3 billion, have suffered massive damage to their capacity to earn a living. This is due to lockdown measures and/or because they work in the hardest-hit sectors.
The first month of the crisis is estimated to have resulted in a drop of 60 per cent in the income of informal workers globally. This translates into a drop of 81 per cent in Africa and the Americas, 21.6 per cent in Asia and the Pacific, and 70 per cent in Europe and Central Asia.
Without alternative income sources, these workers and their families will have no means to survive.
Obvious questions arise, and I assume that the ILO is right in making these claims.
The first is why is no one talking about this?
Second, if true, what is anyone doing about this?
Third, what should be done about this?
Fourth, if nothing is done what will happen?
Fifth, are we happy to accept death on a scale previously unimagined in human history if this issue is not addressed?
Sixth, how do we plan to manage the attempts at mass migration that this will give rise to?
Seventh, how will our economies survive when this implies that those of many countries in the world will collapse?
Eighth, what does this imply for our futures? Do we have one?
Ninth, what risk is there of this happening without conflict?
Tenth, did anyone get as far as imagining all this? I admit, I had not.
The risks the ILO draws attention to are very sobering indeed.
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If we had courageous states as you have advocated, things like Covid-19 could be coped with.
The thing is we have not, and those in the West have been happy to deal with weaker states such as Africa or in Asia and hold all the cards.
All these chickens are about to come home to roost.
My worry is that instead of putting this stuff right, those who have anything left will be expected to level down to those who have suffered the most because there will be hundreds of thousands if not millions of them.
A dangerous circus of manipulated envy could kick off – the have nots encouraged to heckle the ‘have somethings’ and bring them down – all manipulated by the rich and vested interests.
Then, the pauperisation of the commons will be complete, the victory of money as power confirmed and conferred.
There is a lot at stake at the moment.
Firstly, apologies to Pilgrim for pressing the wrong reply button the other day.
We sing, I think, from the same hymn sheet, which leads to my main point:
Yes, pauperisation of the commons completed indeed, and that, to my mind, includes the idea of the “competent” state.
At a time when we should be demanding a “courageous” state, as defined by Richard, we are left with the consequences of ten years of austerity resulting in the “shrunken”state.
This whole Covid-19 situation will, in my view, serve as a metaphor for the full result, meaning and description of the full playing out of the Thatcher/ Reagan era and it’s consequences. Trump and Johnson are the stark reminders.
No worries Karl.
What is really depressing for me, is how the post war institutions have been undermined, captured and left powerless.
For example the WHO: the WHO should have followed the British example and been responsible for equalising health care across the world with the remit to set up NHS-like institutions globally in every country (Africa, South America – you name it). There would have been a lot more ‘world health’ had this been done.
At the end of WWII, America had this benign status that led it to be the base for the World Bank, WHO etc. That America is long dead since Roosevelt died (although the US did gain a lot from the WWII from the decline of Britain’s Empire, to reduced industrial competitive output in Europe and Asia as they rebuilt).
But it strikes me now that America’s influence on these entities (and other factors like the removal of the Gold Standard to floating exchange rates dictated by ‘markets’ hiding behind sovereign states) is corrosive. This is a country where the insanely self obsessed, selfish books of Ayn Rand out sell the Bible (according to Adam Curtis).
All of the post-war institutions need to be repatriated from America – not from the American people, many of whom suffer at the hands of their own State – but away from the US Government – the most malignant force in the post WWII era I can think off.
At least one could see what Soviet Russia was up to; what the CIA got up to in South America, Greece or in any other state that wanted to have its own Government since WWII took some time to come out.
The US Government is a rogue entity – even domestically, it is a threat to its own citizens as well as those of the world. The Pilgrim Fathers would turn in their graves; Thomas Jefferson would weep. These world institutions need to be based somewhere else and rediscover their remit.
I read somewhere that some American described the British practice of democracy as ‘totally corrupt’. And I agree. But said American also needs to acknowledge that the USA has not lived up to its promise either – and the US Government is wholly to blame.
The only way to be able to be advised of comments is still to comment, right, in this updated version?
As far as I know, yes
I am afraid this is down to WordPress and not me
The United Nations from the Security Council to all the other agencies such as Food and Agriculture, WHO, World Bank, IMF etc should all come together to implement a massive temporay international relief programme (David Miliband heres your chance). Temporary measures on the lines of UBI, job guarantees etc could all be introduced if there is the political will. Clearly food rationing and fair allocation should be a priority.
Agendas discussed here have never been so relevant
I quote (myself) for brevity; “When, back in the 1880s, then German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck proposed what his critics called state socialism and we’ve come to know as social security or welfare, we understand he did so because, by giving small but regular amounts of money to the unemployed, the sick and disabled, and those too old and infirm to work, those people were turned into economic assets. Necessity dictated they spend the money they were given, increasing the velocity of money in the economy and creating an environment which encouraged corporate investment. Normal taxation, then as now, took care of any potential problems with inflation. This created what’s now known as a virtuous circle, one we should, if we had any education and sense, be emulating. Instead, we’re cutting benefits. This has the effect of reducing the amount of money in circulation. Remember, the claimant spends it with the butcher who spends it with the baker who spends it with the candlestick maker. Social security is security for the whole neighbourhood as, when govt’s doing its job, despite the onset of hard times they know there’ll still be money circulating in the economy overall.”
Demand is going to take an enormous hit, one economies won’t be able to cope with. Even if all those afflicted were to be put on benefits quickly and efficiently (which we know won’t happen) then demand would still be taking an overwhelming hit as benefits are only supposed to provide enough to keep someone ticking over, not maintain their employed lifestyle while unemployed. The economy depends on there only being a relative handful of people being on benefits anyway, not some vast number. How to deal? I suspect we should take our lead from Bismarck and accordingly beef up social security so claimants can at least approximate a reasonable lifestyle, one formerly associated with having an actual job paying a decent income. They will need to be able to spend to restore demand. Rents will need to be paid too. That Magic Money Tree will need to be shaken, and repeatedly too. We come nearer and nearer to some form of UBI being an obvious necessity. I wonder how the Treasury will react? All this assumes we actually want to restore some approximation of what we’re familiar with, of course. Some may not.
the biggest priority in all of this are our basic needs of food, shelter, medicine, comfort.
governments need to realise that they are going to have to take on an active role to ensure their populations have access to these needs whilst economic normality is suspended. they need to work together on this.
and they need to have a plan for the future.
loads of businesses can (and will) fail. it doesn’t mean we all have to die. we can re-build something better, but it requires a lot of thought and commitment by government.
i keep thinking of how Germany and Japan’s industrial and political infrastructure were laid to waste at the end of WW2, and then compare their contemporary economies with ours. perhaps sometimes it is easier to start with a blank piece of paper than to try and resuscitate the past.
I agree, we could come out of this well
But that will take a lot of commitments who think the markets always known best when they are crashing all around them
The difference though is that Germany and Japan at those times had a society that they could work with.
Given that social and physical distancing are now with us permanently I fail to see any way out.
Right now we are all just sitting here waiting for the inevitable mental brrakdown.