It takes courage to admit you were wrong. Wise people have to do it every now and again. Peter Oborne has done it with regard to Brexit on Open Democracy.
I do not, by a long way, agree with Peter Oborne's world view. But he has courage. And he shows it again by admitting he called Brexit incorrectly. He also, appropriately, reveals that this is not a binary decision now, and never was. It's always been about a balance of judgement and the necessity to accept some unpalatable aspects of the EU for the overall benefit it provides.
I recommend reading it.
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Wow! I did.
Compelling.
Thanks.
I rarely find myself in agreement with Peter Oborne’s politics, but I have always respected his independence of mind, his forthrightness, and his candour. Occasionally, as today I have even found myself, almost grudgingly (!) agreeing with him. Oborne has realised that Brexit (for him, at least now), is a mistake; and I hope we may all welcome someone prepared not only to compromise, but change his mind. I commend it.
The reason I often struggle to sympathise with Oborne’s perspective; not just the politics, but his conception and perception of the world, is best revealed in this astonishing revelation in the middle of his article, as he wrestles with his own assumptions:
” Like almost everybody else I underestimated the importance of the Good Friday Agreement. And we’ve all misunderstood the Irish question, even though it has loomed so large in our history for the last 500 years.”
Really? It required the Brexit catastrophe to understand the Irish question? I think this neatly encapsulates the nature of the problem, although I still struggle to understand how intelligent people can be quite so obtuse. Candidly, it is alarming – but I must also confess, at root it is – to me at least – not surprising. This is Britain, as it is.
I agree with all that
Especially re the ignorance re Ireland
This is how we should all do politics. It’s a lesson for us all. Even (especially) when we “know” we’re right! 😉
You mean Peter Oborne.
I do
And I typed it
And it was autocorrected
Just as my machine thinks may is spelt May now
Richard, you know I love your work! But there’s a massive irony in your Peter Oborne piece:
“It takes courage to admit you were wrong.” And then call him Peter Osborne!! I know you easily have the courage to admit a typo!
Bloody autocorrect….
The willingness to call out entrenched falsehoods and dishonest pretentions has long been Peter Oborne’s trademark and here, as on other scandals from Iraq to the supposed probity of the Telegraph, he has measured up. Credit where credit is due – and would there were more of this quality, especially among Tory MPs.
However, his political/social world view continues to reek of that complacent regard for establishment myths and unnoticed ignorance, which have helped to create and perpetuate the Brexit disaster. It is not merely his jaw-dropping comments on Ireland that expose this. His encomiums of praise for May – “She’s shown immense fortitude and determination which has won her the respect and admiration of decent people.” – (note the typical Tory category of “decent people”) – enshrine a deafness which it is already clear that even Mark Rutte, her ‘best friend’ among the 27, cannot share. He still thinks of a polarity between ‘democratic’ Britain and “remote oligarchs based in Brussels” (or even Berlin as he confuses the EU with the Eurozone), blithely impervious to the grossly undemocratic nature of UK elections (FPTP) v. EU ones under PR – let alone the bulging House of Lords, elected by absolutely nobody. He speaks lovingly of the Conservative Party and its electorate – then admits that it is of such a nature that it will almost certainly elect a new Tory leader who “will rip up Mrs May’s deal, however sensible and well-intentioned, and then embark on another two-year-long attritional battle with Europe.” As for his ‘takes’ on the Union and the nature of Britain….. ! How can anyone who expects their insights to be taken seriously write both “democracy can only exist and flourish within a nation state.” and “I respect those who say yes, all this is worth it to pursue a dream of independence. It is a noble dream. I share it.” yet also pen “I reckoned without the separatists within our nation who would push us apart, and seize on Brexit (as the Scottish nationalists are doing) as a reason to break up.”? (His ‘logic’ requires neither Scotland nor Ireland to be ‘nations’, when they manifestly are, and Britain to be one, when it manifestly, even in his language, is not one, but a “Union” of four, whose national status he denies.)
So – as many times before – welcome on board, Peter Oborne, for one issue and for a bit of the journey. I’ll cheer you yet again for breaking ranks with honest – it really is honest, for all the contradictions still show – bluff willingness to stand and be counted. That does take courage. But you still remind me of the chap in “Four Weddings and a Funeral”, who bemoans having to remember all the novels of Wordsworth at ‘school’.
I agree it’s commendable to see someone like Osborne having the courage to publically change his mind. On the flip side I found myself getting more angry with each line of his article. He presents his arguments well, however, they are remain arguments, arguments we have been presenting since day one, arguments he dismissed on more than one numerous occasion. I thought why now, why so late in the day, how is it he, and others like him failed to see these arguments before the referendum. I did, huge numbers if my friends did, you did Richard.
I admire his confession, but it confirms to me how people who come from his living, working and educational environment are not to be given any quarter, they have poor judgement in too many important areas of life, a life forever, perhaps with BREXIT as an exception, looking through the wrong end of the telescope.
This is nonsense.
I support Brexit to bring power back to the UK – if this parliament can’t handle it (and clearly they are terrified of doing so), then they can be swept away along with our EU membership.
Being in the EU has created a third rate political class in the UK – they never were real MP material, just middle ranking bank clerks. Decent candidates didn’t want that job, and even if they had tried would have been suppressed by the party system.
Brexit Britian needs a new breed of politician/MP – they are here, just busy doing real work right now, not being puppets in our broken political system… and that means sweeping this lot away.
Paul
Rhubarb!
The power that cannot be dealt with by the MPs is that which resides in your Prime Ministers office, supported by her supine self interested MPs who had the chance to vote her out in a vote of no confidence but failed to do so because they put being in power and their party first.
It was also created with the help of another brilliant Tory idea – the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
All our problems over BREXIT have been caused by domestically sourced stupidity and arrogance by a Tory party who do not even believe in the State of Government and prefer markets instead.
Our old fashioned political system that was based on things like ‘honour’ and ‘organisation’ has been found wanting because the Tories believe in only one thing – destroying the state and making money out the proceeds of its destruction (you are aware of austerity are you not?).
All of this BREXIT chaos, embarrassment and prestige is home grown Paul. It’s our fault.
How you can blame Europe for that is frankly bizarre, bordering on the insane to be honest.
Oborne’s personal circle are almost entirely Brexiteers – “Most of my personal friends are Brexiteers. I think they are — with a few exceptions — decent, patriotic people. They are driven by one great solemn idea, namely that democracy can only exist and flourish within a nation state”
Yet poor Scotland has to suffer the indignity of a Conservative dominated Westminster constantly overriding the wishes of its own population and inflicting laws such as the Poll Tax on them. Presumably it does not suit them to regard Scotland as a nation, merely an appendage to England perhaps. As for Northern Ireland- with May giving the DUP the only voice when overall NI voted to remain- the arrogance is breathtaking.
Would that the Daily Mail publish his view.
I read Oborne’s article. The BTL were almost as interesting as the article itself. In one bit of it Oborne was either heroically badly informed or lying. Extract:
“Politicians and ministers were unable to respond to popular concerns about immigration because membership of the European Union meant they were unable to back words with action. When she was home secretary, Theresa May kept promising to combat the relatively high levels of immigration. The reality was she was powerless to do anything about it. ”
The above is factually incorrect. Mrs May had a battery of EU laws at her disposal & deployed little or none of them. This is not an assertion & I will leave it to these two articles to explain: http://outsidethebubble.net/2016/12/06/massive-negligence-by-theresa-may-when-home-secretary/
https://brexit853.wordpress.com/2016/09/26/freedom-of-movement-isnt-the-problem-it-is-the-way-the-uk-fails-to-control-it/
As one BTL commenter noted: May did nothing because immigrants to the UK have a net positive impact on the economy. The Tories know that/knew that. The devil is always in the detail – & in this case, Oborne’s mea culpa missed the detail – typical of so many tories – who like simple narratives or perhaps they are intellectually incapable of understanding anything else.
It’s time we really were honest about migration
ONS statistics issued February, 2019:
Non-EU immigration:
“Net migration estimates show that 261,000 more non-EU citizens came to the UK than left in the year ending September 2018. This was the highest estimate since 2004.”
EU immigration:
“EU net migration has fallen to a level last seen in 2009. Despite this, EU citizens continue to add to the UK population, with an estimated 57,000 more EU citizens coming to the UK than leaving in the year ending September 2018”.
We are already seeing the traces of what will happen post-Brexit, within these trends. It is worth adding that in the last decade gross non-EU immigration to the UK has been running at circa 250k-350k per annum (over which we already have this valued independent immigration “control”; and simply declined to exercise it), even while we have been in the EU. No effort has been made to reduce this significantly.
Far from Brexit reducing immigration, all that is likely to happen is, as the ONS figures already suggest, the UK will simply switch its labour resource from the EU to non-EU immigration. This is more in line with the ideology of Brexit than its rhetorical flourishes to the public. On immigration, the ‘bottom line’ is – nothing has changed, or will change.
Immigration will continue, but where the large number of businesses in agriculture (crop-picking), or in the fish-processing industry will find a ready source of supply of seasonal workers from non-EU sources is more difficult to discern. In other words, this is Brexit Britain: nobody has thought about anything.
I watched Channel 4 News again last night and they were looking at immigrant labour in the care ‘system’ of our elderly people.
Some of the people who were using the service had voted to Leave and were mulling this over as the future of the immigrant carers they relied on is now cast in doubt because of WREXIT.
The senior care system has hundreds of thousands of vacancies that it cannot fill according to two practitioners interviewed, yet there are overseas workers doing those jobs right now.
The interviewer went onto the streets to ask the usual coterie of renta-Brits if they would work in the elderly care sector.
Many said that the wages in the sector were too poor (minimum wage). One young man said he’s do anything for £15 per hour and would not wipe someone’s bum for the minimum wage.
He could not have more starkly stated the problem – but it also left me deeply worried.
So, questions:
Why are our elderly (whom we are meant to value and care for as the most highly evolved – supposedly- species on the planet) not worth £15 an hour in care costs? i think that they are.
This to me is a salient question. Why do we have to be obsessed with low costs when these people need the highest of help? I’m sorry but things as they are, are bollocks.
Would it not be better to coax people into work with better/higher incomes – supported by the state across the board so that shortages in sectors are addressed?
English/Scottish/Welsh people are not stupid. They know that certain jobs are undervalued. They know that getting work itself eats into wages and other household spends. These people just want to be treated fairly. So let’s make it happen.
This then brings me to immigration. If we are using immigration as cheap labour only because what is cheap here is a better living wage than what was earned in the immigrant’s home country, then where is the morality in that?
Immigration can be seen as propping up a system that under-values labour – whether home grown or foreign.
This is all about wage policy in my view. And also about a lack training and professionalisation as well as the over-personalisation of care budgets and cuts to adult social care under austerity. Care working is treated as such a low grade unskilled job in this country and it has to stop. It’s screaming at us that we just don’t really care in my view.
But I am also convinced that if you want people to work, pay them decent bloody wages whether they are picking fruit in a field or are looking after your Granny with dementia.
It’s so bleeding obvious – but does anyone want to listen?
You ant to redistribute power in the economy
And some do not want you to do that
with respect to non-EU labour – you may recall a few years back the poor chinese people that died picking cockles FFS! in morcombe bay. What on earth were they doing picking cockles (& this was not for their own consumption – but as a labour force working under gangers (gangsters?) . By what perverted commercial dynamic do Chinese people (and plenty of others) , come from literally the other side of the globe and end up picking cockles and dying? An extreme example perhaps, but there are others (not involving dying but involving menial manual work). Round the corner from where I live in Belgium there is a manual car wash – manned by those from the Indian subcontinenet – just opposite there was an automatic car wash – that closed. Why are we substituting human labour for automation? In an earlier blog entry Richard posted a video of a chap takling about the impact of climate change – he also noted that the Uk was incapable of feeding itself & this would become very serious as climate change developed – how does this fit with immigration running at 300k/year?
Mike Parr says:
“Round the corner from where I live in Belgium there is a manual car wash — manned by those from the Indian subcontinenet — just opposite there was an automatic car wash — that closed. Why are we substituting human labour for automation? ”
I don’t understand how it works, but I believe (from things I’ve read, but can’t offer sources) the answer to your question is that manual car washes are an effective way under present tax laws to ‘launder’ the proceeds of crime. Particularly drugs money I expect.
There will almost certainly be quirks in the charging of water to businesses too, which make the automated systems non-viable or at least non-competitive. And a capital intensive start-up is making more for the banks than the operators. Labour is dirt and therefore cheap. So are sponges and plastic buckets.
No respect from this quarter for Mr Oborne. (And Bugger all for Mr Osborne, but that’s another issue entirely !)
If he’d come to this conclusion 12 or even 6 months ago it might have some merit.
This is too little, and far too late to deserve marks for stating the bleedin’ obvious.
As other contributors suggest there’s a lot of weasel sentiment lurking between these lines.
Oh he is squirming a lot Andy I agree but he got there in the end bless him.
Well the change of heart is welcome, I suppose, but apart from the incorrect assertion that Mike Parr has already noted about immigration, and the incoherent confusing of country, nation state and union, as mentioned by AliB, there is the sentence:
“Our European neighbours have made it clear that we can reverse Article 50”.
Which is disingenuous in that it ignores the fact that this right was established in a Scottish court and then the ECJ by a group of Scottish politicians of various parties (though not Tory) and Jo Maugham of the Good Law Project. This was achieved in spite of several appeals by the UK government to prevent this, on the grounds that it was a hypothetical scenario.
Not so hypothetical now, but this also goes against Peter Oborne’s rather hysterical:
“ I reckoned without the separatists within our nation who would push us apart, and seize on Brexit (as the Scottish nationalists are doing) as a reason to break up.”
Well, of course Brexit is one of the ‘material changes’ that give Nicola Sturgeon a mandate to call another independence referendum; and yet she and others, like the cross party group of parliamentarians above, have gone out of their way to find compromise solutions.
I wonder if Peter Oborne will give credit where it’s due if what appears to be his preferred outcome is fulfilled?
@Phil Butler
“Not so hypothetical now, but this also goes against Peter Oborne’s rather hysterical: …….
[I’d say ignorant, rather than hysterical. The entire thrust of Brexit has shown up total ignorance and disregard for Scotland and NI and and Wales too. The latter regularly ignored by everyone. 🙁
………“ I reckoned without the separatists within our nation who would push us apart, and seize on Brexit (as the Scottish nationalists are doing) as a reason to break up.” ”
The pressure has become a reaction to UK hubris and disdain. Scotland is not pushing the union apart it is being repelled…by a repellent government in Westminster, and the previous lot were not much better, and the current ‘opposition’ is out to lunch.
Orborne trots out the usual highly selective establishment garbage of the chattering classes ….
I strongly suspect Osborne is in self preservation mode, rather than having a road to Damascus moment.
Redistributing power in the economy? Yes I get that.
But when are we going to stop lying to ourselves that we care for our elderly when we insist on doing so, so cheaply?
As I see it, we do not care properly for them. It’s a big lie. It’s a disgrace. It’s a stain on all of us.