The following comment was posted by David Kelly on the blog yesterday. It has, apparently, appeared as a comment on another couple of sites but never as a post in its own right, and I thought it worthy of that status, so I share it now.
Project Brexit
I have spent much of the last forty years in the world of major project management. Largely in the oil and gas industry out of Aberdeen, but in other parts of the world as well and in other industries where projects get very big, such as nuclear power, defence and the largest of civil engineering jobs. My specific discipline — the software techniques used to understand and control these projects — is common across all of these industries, as are many, indeed most, of the theoretical frameworks we use to describe and manage these largest of jobs. I am flattered to be described as a “subject matter expert” by my clients in the oil and gas industry, however even SMEs have been quiet of late in the oil industry, and so I turned my attention to the largest project ever undertaken in Britain, Brexit.
The important distinguishing feature of a project is that it stops. This is not manufacturing or running a shop. We make something, deliver it, and the job is over. Brexit is a project. But if we examine it that way without any consideration as to whether it is “right” or “wrong” to do, it is doomed to failure.
In order for a project to be successful, there are some important ingredients. Brexit lacks all of them, except a “Project Must Finish By” date, the only information that we have. In March of 2019 the project finishes.
Let me painfully go through just some of the missing ingredients:
A scope of work. Famously, there isn't one. It is as if a shipbuilding company had accepted a contract to deliver a ship in March 2019, but nobody knows what sort of ship. All we know is the launch date. This in itself makes the project to build the Holyrood parliament seem well founded in comparison.
Budget. There isn't one. This project will go ahead no matter what it costs.
Contract Management. We have started this job without knowing what the terms and conditions are. Any of them. I cannot think of an analogy that expresses my horror at this strongly enough, other than to repeat it. We have started this job without knowing what the terms and conditions are. We are going to negotiate the T&Cs as we go along. How many times has that worked?
Benefit analysis. If you believe £350m a week for the NHS, you will believe anything I suppose, but in fairness there was a benefit analysis available this June from the proponents of the project. I do not think I am being too partisan if I suggest it has not stood up to scrutiny. In essence — there isn't one.
Deliverables. All projects of this size have a list of deliverables, rather than a single event. The channel tunnel for example had operational parameters of availability, running costs, number of passengers, there will have been more I am sure. There are no quantified deliverables for Brexit. “less immigration” “more manufacturing jobs” are aspirations, not numbers. This inflates dramatically the impact of my next heading:
Expectations. When we spend this much money on a project, there are expectations which have to be met. If, for example, our shipyard successfully builds two new ferries, but the service to users on the routes they are deployed on does not improve, then it is likely that the expectations of the users of the project will not be met and the project may not be deemed a success. What do people expect from this project? Everyone has been allowed to invent their own expectations. Madness must ensue. For some it is control of immigration, for some it is leaving the single market, for some “taking back control” whatever that means. One could argue that with no scope of work, no budget, no benefit study and no deliverables, expectation management is impossible. I do argue that. And that means we have no way to measure:
Success. There is no way to measure this. The project must then fail.
I could carry on for a few thousand words more about what is wrong/missing with this project. Can I see the risk register? I thought not.
I am often called in to project control environments to help improve them. I certainly have plenty experience of projects that could have gone better. The simple truth I have observed is that success or failure is determined at or before the start, not the end of a project. Project success is a function of how ready we are to start the project. In more that forty years I have never seen a project less ready to start.
At the risk of tautology, this is technically the worst project I have ever experienced, and I've been parachuted into some lulus. It is hardly started and we are at the Supreme Court already.
All of the above just spells failure. Indeed I suspect Brexit cannot be done at all.
All I can think of to make it better, is comfort eating.
Bring on the doughnuts, I say
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All very cogent points, but surely the thing is that this isn’t really a project at all, except in the minds of those who wish it had never started and a hapless and almost impotent government – certainly one afflicted with ED.
It’s more, it seems to me, in the nature of a revolution, and, like most revolutions when they start, people of completely different aims, persuasions and groupings are jostling for power and influence with very little respect to the masses who took to the streets or locked themselves inside their houses. How would this type of analysis have applied to the start of the Russian revolution for example, or any other unpredictable but unstoppable shift in history?
I think in essence David Kelly is in agreement with what I expressed on the form of a rhetorical question: “How can even the best programmers and systems designers produce a system to match a brief which cannot yet be specified ?”…..but he has first hand experience of the process (or lack of it ) in action.
The shipyard analogy is excellent. How would the ship builders know how many wheels to put on an as yet unspecified vessel ?
I’ve never worked in IT, but I well understand the that if you don’t ask the right question you don’t get a useful answer. Similar shifting parameters are common in some big civil engineering projects, requiring retro fitting modifications even before the project is complete.
I think you’ll find the reason Windows 10 actually works is because, Mocros**t finally had to admit to themselves that long before Windows 8 they had more patches than trousers and it was time to start constructing a new garment.
Windows 10 actually works?
That’s a controversial statement, highly contingent on you mean by “works”.
In my opinion, as an IT professional, it doesn’t. But your point about starting over has some value, and would have more if they really did. More relevant in this context is the parallel between Brexit and Windows Vista, if you have to drag Microsoft into this.
It was decreed that it (Vista) had to be done by a certain date. Instead of “will of the people” and Article 50 it was Steve Ballmer and not losing face. And so it was done and pushed out the door and turned out to be a disaster, primarily because of inadequate engagement with 3rd parties and the kind of proper process management outlined above.
By analogy: Brexiting without port facilities in place in EU countries to handle cross-border traffic of goods and people. Etc But a dodgy version of Windows is one thing, crashing the supply chain for food is another.
Using best practices doesn’t guarantee success. It help ensure the avoidance of avoidable failure.
It’s a great blog post, thanks to the author. It dovetails with something I read earlier on the cult of the amateur in British politics. Too many in cabinet have no real technical expertise on anything. They’re like the C-suite executives who order things to be done because they can, regardless of any evidence as to whether it’s worth doing or can be done on time, within budget, expectations etc.
I am sure the author will have heard the same words I heard when called on, on occasion, to produce unicorns from a hat. It begins, without the faintest idea of what’s actually involved:
Can’t you just…
And in the end it boils down to not being able to produce a baby in a week regardless of how many women are employed. Who knew?
Paul says:
“Windows 10 actually works?”
That’s a controversial statement, highly contingent on [what] you mean by “works”. ”
Ah well, I have very low expectations/requirements. It runs my email and browser and doesn’t crash very often. And it was free. Oh and it it runs an open source Libre Office suite which I rarely use. Ticks four out of four for me.
Why anybody who understands anything about computers doesn’t use open source Linux systems is a mystery to me. I’m using !0 because I couldn’t get the linux I was familiar with past the digital Cerberus. I’m a user of least resistance. I was using the Linux n the first place because it was easier than making the change across Micros**t variants (Pro to Home in that case with XP)
Re ‘Can’t you just….’ I find another expression which fills me with dread is ‘have you got five minutes ?’
It is not just asking the right questions. Its also getting the right answers.
I worked on one project where we asked the right questions more than once, but were given wrong or more precise incomplete answers.
Three weeks before we were due to go live, they came and said “Oh we forgot to tell you about these. You’ll be able to fit them in, won’t you?”
I’ll give you a hint about the answer. It was a two letter word starting with N and ending with O.
🙂
Brenda Steele says:
“I’ll give you a hint about the answer. It was a two letter word starting with N and ending with O.”
Properly used, ‘No’ is possibly the most powerful word in the English language.
For those who are reticent to try it because they think it too brutal, I recommend pracising for a while with ‘Probably not’.
‘Wouldn’t it be lovely if we could do that…but ….’ Works quite well too , I find.
” …. if you don’t ask the right question you don’t get a useful answer.”
GIGO! 🙂
It’s a bit like a Windows 10 update though. Nothing happens for ages and then it’s broke. It’s somewhat depressing, though not surprising, that as far as I can see UKIP did no planning for leaving until after the referendum. Vote Leave’s “Leave looks Like” document starts with a picture of Arctic Greenland and Spitsbergen so were they actually telling us they want a post EU frozen wasteland.
My wife’s book club has about a dozen members. All were “forced” to upgrade to Windows 10. Every single computer required professional attention to restore it to proper functionality afterwards, at, I’m sure, some expense.
Having something forced on you that doesn’t work, disrupts your life, and costs you money is, well, brexity.
My kids opted for new software in the form of Irish passports and my wife now uses Linux Mint and is thinking about a new passport.
Thanks for reposting this Richard, I missed it yesterday.
David’s project comparator is important and revealing, as he said it can be extended:-
> there is no Project Manager and there is no ownership of the project. Those in charge at the moment are at loggerheads can be displaced at any time. There is a Design Team but each member is submitting contradictory inputs.
>There will be hundreds, possibly thousands, of subcontractors but no main contractor.
> There is no scope of works and no contract sum and therefore variations to the contract cannot be identified, valued and assessed in terms of their impact upon the completeion date.
> There will be no monthly valuation of the work completed and no ongoing funding statement.
> there is no dispute resolution mechanism and therefore disagreements will be left unresolved with mounting contingent liability.
Issues such as these brought Carillion crashing to the ground.
The Tories are supposed to represent business and yet here we are setting of without an opening spend/funding plan, contract sum, impact assessment or risk assessment document.
Ministers are exempting themselves from the requirements of Government Accounting.
I think the Carillion comparison is very apt
I honestly think the whole Brexit thing (whatever it is) has been hijacked by Conservative Central. It may have been pure hubris from Cameron, but the Tories have grabbed the opportunity to work this to their own long term advantage.
So, we’ll get Brexit (whatever the hell that means) either delivered disastrously, or called off with ill feeling and recriminations all round. I bet you a pound to a pinch of s**t that the Tories won’t be in power when that happens. They’re driving this ridiculous clown car headlong towards a cliff and they’ve packed it full of their biggest liabilities – Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Gove, Fox, Davies… all “led” in a strong and Stable way by Mrs May. This band of muppets will be merrily sacrificed by Tory HQ, but not before they hand the wheel of the car to a waiting Labour Government. There will be a GE before the whole Brexit fiasco goes belly-up, which will leave Labour carrying the can. Then the Tories will jeer and howl and blame Corbyn for all of Britain’s woes.
Then they’ll get back into power and stay there for a thousand years, having shed their more embarrassing associates and demonised the left in the mainstream media.
If that’s the goal, I’d say the whole project is being managed rather well…
I find this type of analysis to be very British and somewhat is reminiscent of that old sit-com ‘One Foot in the Grave’.
Thank you Victor for providing a smile amidst the gloom!
I would be amazed, almost in awe, if the Tories had the presence of mind to engineer such a masterfully Machiavellian, cogent strategy.
I really do believe (hope?) you are wrong, as noted here earlier, it feels as if the tide is turning away from neoliberal lies.
Excellent use of pound to a pinch of s**t by the way. Seems increasingly apt as post-brexit that’s all we’ll be able to afford…
Everyone knows what post-Brexit Britain will look like. It was described perfectly in the first verse and chorus of
https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/bobdylan/likearollingstone.html
over 50 years ago.
I was thinking more like the dystopian “Britain” in “V for Vendetta”. I saw it again the other day, and the explanation as to how it all came about was shockingly close to the last few years here!