We are in a Brecit mess. Here's the first reason, from the Supreme Court decision today;
The 2016 referendum is of great political significance. However, its legal significance is determined by what Parliament included in the statute authorising it, and that statute simply provided for the referendum to be held without specifying the consequences.
The second is that the Leave campaign refused to issue a manifesto for Brexit. They deliberately did not say what Brexit meant and so no one knew what they voted for, and still don't. That division in the UK will now run for many, many years.
And third? No one found out how to leave the EU, starting with whether or not Article 50 was revocable.
As cock-ups go Brexit has been a mess from the start. And it will be to the end. And that's the fault of those driving the process.
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To have a referendum with the objective of maintaining the status quo is a ridiculous thing to do. It was perhaps reasonable in 1975 only a few years after accession when there had not been a referendum to go in. The only valid reason was if the government wished to leave the EU, had a ‘plan’, and was asking for an OK from the people.
But it did not say that
And it never revealed a plan
Hence the mess, as I said
Carol, the referendum was not about maintaining the status quo: it came about because the Europhobic hard right spent years agitating for it, and in the end Cameron caved in to/was outmanouvered by them. Given his complacency, he then assumed he would easily win, and ran a lacklustre campaign, which was defeated by the most dishonest, disgusting political campaign I’ve ever seen in this country.
Of course Brexit is going to be an utter shambles. What do you expect from a campaign run by liars, fanatics and fantasists, voted for by those who (mostly) knew very little about the EU, and the consequences of leaving? They never had a plan, and don’t now. For the Brexiteers, everything is about leaving the hated EU ASAP, regardless of the consequences.
Tory governments always have a plan. They’re just not foolish enough to let anyone know what it is.
About right, but this is being driven by sectarian forces. There is no one overall Tory view, nor do they know the full extent of what they will be dealing with if we Brexit.
Clearly, leaving the EU without de-regulating and forming new trade deals will make us all on average worse off.
De-regulation and new trade deals might allow some Tories to become more wealthy, providing that the rest of us, (who have had our money taken away from us to the tune of an estimated £2200 per household per annum on average), decide to do business with them. We may decide to go to an extreme amount of effort to avoid doing this. It is a global world these days, after all.
How can you say that Tory governments always have a plan ? The current government only exists because of Brexit. Something the previous Tory government didn’t intend to happen. And Theresa May’s ministers’ statements do not agree with each other and she keeps contradicting them.
Both foolish and planless as far as I can see.
Truly, the Brexit process is something of a mess born out of the very messy history of the EU. But the Euro is a worse mess and the EU itself an even greater one.
Look – let’s be honest here OK?
Cameron thought he was going to win (‘I’m a winner’ he apprently told the EU). He didn’t win. It had never entered his tiny little PR mind that he would lose.
And then the Leavers who won who said ‘We were only meant to blow the bloody doors off’.
So – those who thought they would win, lost.
Those who thought they would lose, won.
Do you think that sort of mindset is fertile ground for making plans, strategies and anything else that could be called ‘rational’.
I think that you will find that ther answer is ‘No’.
And that is why it is right to call this a mess.
‘Tory governments always have a plan. They’re just not foolish enough to let anyone know what it is.’
The only plan the government has is to do whatever it takes to hold onto power. That is why there hasn’t been a clear Brexit strategy and why they’ve finally decided to end free movement, against the economic interest – an extraordinary thing for the Conservative party to do. They are still terrified of their own Brexit MPs and of the tabloid press.
Labour, on the other hand, is terrified of Brexit voters in its heartland constituencies. The party has, unfortunately, chosen to abandon the majority of its supporters who voted remain.
I wonder who is ‘in control’?
Kevin, does the phrase ‘the lunatics are in charge of the asylum’ answer your question?
I can’t help but thinking that the right wing of the Tory party had a fairly clear plan: a minimal regulation, neoliberal, low wage, low tax economy with a state “the size of a bathtub” and a privatised NHS and any other remaining public sector assets they can get away with selling. Of course they could never have sold this in the referendum. The election of Trump must be beyond their wildest dreams.
This is nearly the polar opposite of what I would wish, but Brexit may be such a disaster that there could be a major backlash. A credible opposition would help.
The last is so true
English nationalism rules. Very clear listening to Ian Duncan Smith on WATO today that “we are leaving” means Scotland and NI are not equal partners in that decision. They’ll be consulted, essentially for appearances same, but they will not have a say. That a possible outcome is the end of the UK, loss of a UN Security Council seat, and a further reduction in stature is, it seems, untroubling. Nor is the prospect of groveling to Trump.
I really cannot see the Union surviving this
I agree and I think it will be both sad and probably for the best. English exceptionalism has to come to an end sometime and it seems it will not yield voluntarily. Joris Luydendijk has analysed this perfectly from a non-English perspective.
Me neither, and I see that as the biggest single justification for putting the brakes on Brexit.
I would love to see a side-by-side poll of English voters on the two issues of i) leaving the EU and ii) Scotland leaving the UK.
I am certain that the vast majority of English voters think that Scotland should remain in the UK. If there were a referendum on this it would be a clear percentage, upwards of 85% I feel.
I’m sure that the English feel much more strongly about this than membership of the EU.
However, as a direct consequence of a much narrower majority decision on Brexit, the UK will most likely break up.
This has to be treated as a much higher priority issue than it is at present, and is one that, to my mind, also should be subject to a referendum.
The EU may well break up or evolve of its own accord over the years, however if Scotland leaves the UK, it aint coming back.
Agreed
As an Englishman from a relatively privileged background, but with (like a large percentage of English people) some Welsh, Irish and (possibly) Scottish ancestors, I couldn’t blame any of the other countries of the Union from wanting independence from England.
Both the manner in which the referendum was won and the way in which, despite the narrowness of the win, the UK is heading for leaving the EU is going to cause increasing tensions within the UK between the anti EU English nationalists, and the pro EU majorities in Scotland and NI.
And on a personal basis, I’d just love to see the look on the faces of those fools who think that leaving the EU will ‘make Britain great again’, if the UK does break up because of this. Petty and ignoble I know, but I am sick and tired of flag waving English ‘patriots’.
I think we will split
And sooner than the fools in the Home Counties realise
I witnessed their anti-Scots anger in 2015: it was nasty. It will backfire
As a Scot having lived in England for 30 years I am seriously contemplating moving to Scotland as I have no wish to live in an inward looking bigoted “Little England”, the only drawback though is that my children and grandchildren will be much further away, I am sure that there are a lot of people in a similar position
There are
You say “The second is that the Leave campaign refused to issue a manifesto for Brexit. They deliberately did not say what Brexit meant and so no one knew what they voted for, and still don’t.” I believe myself, encouraged by various political luminaries who were conspicuously photographed beside it, many thought they were voting to ‘take back control’ of £350mn a week of our money which went off to vanish in Europe but after Brexit would go to the NHS. This was, after all, the message emblazoned across the side of the bright red Brexit battle bus.
Dominic Cummings has said that was the manifesto
We also know it, unambiguously, a lie
And that’s how Brexit was won
But that provides no further explanation as to what happens next