Brexit was not on the agenda.
David Cameron did not expect to win in 2015. He thought Nick Clegg would save him from his promise on a referendum. But Cameron won and Clegg lost.
When he became Prime Minister he realised he would have to deliver. But he thought his colleagues would save from Farage. But Johnson and Gove did not.
It is now obvious Gove and Johnson had no expectation of, or plan for, winning. But they did all the same.
No one in the Conservative Party expected that they would deliver Brexit. But they did.
What does that say about their judgement? And whether they should nominate the next prime minister without that being voted on?
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The Labour party should force a vote against Brexit now, this Monday, which they might win (as 3/4 of all MPs were against Brexit).
That should then lead to a no-confidence vote and to a General Election straight away. The Tories would have to scramble to get a suitable PM candidate quickly, who could put detailed plans on how Brexit would work, and how exactly immigration is controlled and paid for (in terms of additional housing) to the electorate.
That way the electorate gets a choice to vote on a detailed Brexit plan quickly (Tories/UKIP), or a coalition (Labour/SNP/LibDems/Greens) which might produce a plan against Brexit (but addressing the immigration issues in a satisfactory way).
If the anti-Brexit coalition would win, the referendum vote would, of course, become invalid.
Sadly, voting against Brexit at this stage would be political suicide. The best the Labour party can hope for is to vote in Parliament on the requirement to formulate a Brexit plan, and formulate their own Brexit plan (with Greens/Lib Dems/SNP) running against the Tory/UKIP Brexit plan in a forced General Election, but even that possibility has been scuppered by the Motion of No Confidence against Jeremy Corbyn, meaning that, at the time the Tories are most divided and disorganised, Labour will be equally divided and disorganised!
I wonder if that was behind the motion, keep the Left wing of Labour from capitalising on the disarray of the Tories by making them scramble to protect Corbyn?
Voting against Brexit result is not political suicide, far from it.
This idea of a coalition of Democratic Alliance (Labour/SNP/LibDems/Greens) running against a far right Tory led campaign (UKIP/ Tories) is the good one.
Now all the parties in one coalition were against Brexit. They should of course fight against the referendum result, even now. If they believe that membership of the EU will prevent a break-up of the Union, and is of economic advantage, and will avoid any further deterioration with the rest of the EU.
If you were to pitch just one Democratic Alliance Candidate with progressive politic agenda against a far right candidate in every constituency, they would of course win.
That is the only way to recovery
I agree – move while the opponents are in disarray
The point is we elect our politicians to make the big decisions on our behalf for the common good based on solid economic and democratic realities. Referendums are nothing more than populist events where none of us really get the facts we need to make an informed decision. I recall the Scottish one very well as I was in it. Go independent and it will be great , leave and it will be awful , but no-one really knew. A bit like this one as no-one really knows. However , just like the Scottish independence referendum we have split the nation. 52 / 48 is no more ‘resounding’ than our one. Maybe the next referendum should be to ban referendums. But the point is the rules are the rules , the electorate have spoken so we live with it. Any moves to overturn the democratic will of the people would be wrong. I am surprised that such a suggestion should be made. The referendum vote would be invalid ? How? Parliament passed the decision to the electorate and got their answer.
The referendum is not binding, legally
And parliament can agree whatever outcome it wants with the EU
Not that they are in the mood to give one…
I think there’s another way the UK government could avoid Brexit, if it’s so inclined (which I suspect it is).
This would involve transitioning to a federal UK. The federal UK would be set up over a 5-10 year timespan, during which the UK remains in the EU. A federal UK would be set up in such a way that its constituents (England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) could make individual choices to exit the EU, and/or the UK, more elegantly.
This could be acceptable to the public because in the referendum Scotland and NI voted to remain, whereas Wales and England (London excepted) voted to leave. The government could argue that it can only “respect” (Cameron’s phrase) the wishes of voters by acting on a country-by-country basis. Personally, I think this is a perfectly valid interpretation of the referendum result, especially given other recent patterns in Scottish voting. And, given that a sudden (~2yr) EU exit would likely have a detrimental effect on the UK, pursuing a better-organised withdrawal is also the responsible thing for a government to do.
To create the federal UK, Westminster would grant powers, equivalent to or greater than those belonging to Scotland, to Wales and Northern Ireland. England would have a second parliament, outside Westminster (the North of England would be a good location). The current Westminster parliament becomes the seat of UK federal government.
In this scenario, the Conservatives retain England (which is where their power base has always been) and retain more influence elsewhere than they would by triggering Article 50. Labour is irrelevant for at least a while, although perhaps not in Wales. The UK remains united, albeit under a federal system, and remains in Europe. The transition to a federal UK would be planned over 5-10 years, with certainty over that period and a detailed road map which should calm markets and investors. All constituent UK countries retain sterling as a currency.
Sometime in the 2020s, the constituent parts of the UK would be able to hold EU in-out referendums. England would have to do so, given that it has just now voted to leave. But I think it’s highly unlikely that leave would be carried again. If it was carried, though, much of the groundwork for the splintering of the UK would have been prepared. I think this would be much better for all involved than triggering Article 50 in the next year or so, and waiting to see what happens.
Oh, come on. An early election will see the tories back with a bigger than ever majority, voted in by Brexiters grateful to them for giving them their ‘country back’ … before the economic reality hits them in the face.
That is the risk
The election needs to be six months out, at least
If there’s one thing those who want better than they’re likely to be offered by the Leavers need to begin urgently, it’s planning a campaign to demand a general election when DC’s successor is known. A referendum outcome seemingly based on a very widespread discontent with our politicians generally, that few, me included, seem to have overlooked as a possibility, surely cannot be a rational basis on which to allow the Tory baton to be passed on without the hindrance of an election.
Could the winners of the referendum, Michael Hudson’s “liars on an industrial scale”, the reclaimers of “our democracy” really be so brazenly hypocritical? I’m pretty sure they’re going to try to be unless the demands for a general election are very strong.
We surely have to move very quickly, since I get the impression that the rest of Europe is thoroughly fed up. Brexit is like a stroppy teenager throwing the mother and father of a tantrum.
there are a few ways out of the chaos: https://waitingfortax.com/2016/06/24/when-i-say-no-i-mean-maybe/
What Matt said.
Dallas? (TV Soap Opera: ref “it was all a dream”)
In theory, and given the fact that at least 15 constituencies (won by the Tories) are under investigation by the police for having spent over their limits in the 2015 election it is arguable that the referendum had no legitimate basis since it was based on a very slime Tory majority in the House of Commons
Whilst this is “Ifs & &s & pots & pans” territory – given the nature of the event, I think I’d be asking if the entire event was legitimate – given that its legitimacy can only flow from the House of Commons & given that if the government had obtained a majority by illegitimate means (see 1st para) – what, if anything, is the legal basis of the referendum? ..if the government on which the referendum was based was … not valid.
It is beyond a joke.
I admit it was facetious of me when, in an earlier comment, I said the referendum debate was like a comedy of errors, because of all the misinformation and mishandling and misreporting we were subject to.
The reality only dawned on me with the tragic and brutal murder of Jo Cox, a dedicated MP and loving mother of two children. This is no joke. This is evil, hatred, wickedness. Briefly we glimpsed the monster that lies hidden in our midst (and it is not one isolated individual), and I think we were all shocked to the core.
Politics cannot stand aloof from this reality. They are our leaders, and if we are to be united against evil it is imperative they exercise sound judgement. Am I alone in thinking Nigel Farage’s victory speech a disgrace? He is unfit for office, or even his position as UKIP leader. He may be very clever in putting together words like “belief” and “nation”, but what assurances can he give that the awful events of the previous week will not happen again? Does he think it is beyond his station to do so?
The truth is politics can, and should, make a difference. It is what Jo Cox believed in, and fought so hard for. But these are issues which cross the political divide. There is no left or right between us, we are all fundamentally human. And until our politicians recognise the greatness of their calling, what chance have the rest of us got of following in their steps? They must lead, and show leadership in doing so, or we will continue to stumble from one predicament to the next.
I pray that the death of Jo Cox may not be in vain, that her memory will be treasured and lead all politicians to a greater collaboration in uniting against the evil that killed her.
Thank you
parliament will soon be disappearing on holiday, summer recess July 21st – Sept 5th,
maybe we could all sneak out of the UK whilst nobody is looking?
anyone for forming a government in exile based in Gibraltar?
Agreed
tried to make this point less eloquently on this blog a week or so ago that Cameron expected a deal with Clegg would bury a Brexit referendum dead in the water. Sorry still reeling. Worst result for the UK in my 60 year lifetime
I acknowledge you gave me the opening bars
He gave people a voice, thats what they were entitled to.
What David Cameron failed to understand was Labour would pick someone who didnt campaign to stay. Corbyn gave the EU a 7.5 out of 10. He didnt speak very well when he finally decided to act.
Leave campaign told so many lies and confused so many people. Its a shame, that these people didnt understand what they were voting for. The lies will come undone over the next few years.
Democracy is an an important part of the UK life. They were given a say in their lives. Even when the decision is wrong no one can be a aloof about it.
But we can say they wrong decision was made
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/06/24/time_to_refile_your_patents_and_trademarks_britain/
Cameron won the election and in so doing damaged an entire continent – not just the UK. This would never have happened had they not allowed Osborne to implement his neo-liberal policies at the expense of the most disadvantaged who have now hit back in the only way they know how.
This was as much a cry of rage as anything else.
In Sheffield, were I live,the leafy suburbs (me) are in shock, the poorer north of the city is celebrating and the UKIP members, by their own admission are holding an unexpected tiger by the tail.
What an utter stuff-up by a short-sighted, immature Tory boy!
Absolutely agree. The sheer amateurishness of Osborne and Cameron who have been playing a game of ‘Let’s be Prime Minister and Chancellor’ for the last few years has brought us here.
let’s factor in the abject failure of the Labour Party in the face of neo-liberalism and now they have someone who might face up to it they want to get rid of him?
‘History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce’.
I agree that Cameron has, in just a year back in (sole) charge managed to dismember both the EU and the UK, whilst all the time maintaining that Conservatives were reliable and responsible.
What an historical achievement.
And all he wanted to do was bring his back benchers to heel.
Conservatives heap praise upon Cameron for staying on out of ‘a sense of duty’ -Doublespeak does not do it justice!
No wonder one German MEP has remarked that Britain, as the EU’s second economy, should go now if it wants to go. The rest of the EU should not be kept in limbo as the Conservatives deliberate and vacillate while they elect a new leader. And I understand the French have indicated they will not be prepared to negotiate any change in trading terms (probably they have an eye on Marine LePen rather than Britain) but the effect is the same.
Cameron and Osborne have finally brought the job of trashing the country’s economy to a crecendo and finale.
Does anyone know where Osborne is at the moment? He appears to have disappeared of the political map.
It has long been said, be careful of what you wish for or you just might get it. People of all political hues could do well to reflect on this.
I also said a couple of months ago on another of Richards posts that if things don’t get better then I can only see pitchforks in the future. That feeling has not gone away. We live in interesting times.
I feel so dejected and depressed by it all. But most of all I feel incredibly let down.
Someone reminded me today that when Harold Wilson oversaw referendum to join Europe he had the good sense not to support or be involved with either side, thus freeing himself to then support either result.
Has Cameron followed the same path, perhaps he would not have felt the need to resign and things would be different
In terms of nous, depth and communicative skill, Osborne cannot stand in the same room as Wilson (faults and all).
Don’t know if there’s anything in the following thoughts. When there was no referendum in the offing it would have been a shrewd move for an ambitious Tory politician to position themselves in the Brexit camp – potentially lots of backbench support for a future leadership bid. When the date was set for a referendum, and a win for the remain camp seemed to be by far the most likely outcome, the same holds true. When the leader of the Tory party makes clear that this is his last term as leader, you have the date of the next leadership battle. Unlike those who really are committed to leaving the EU, you really believe that exit would not be in the country’s interests, but your leadership ambitions are boosted by appearing to support exit. Remember, exit is not really going to happen, so you support it to deliver to you the support that will increase your chances of becoming the next leader of the Tory party. Scenario 1: Sure enough, the country votes to remain. When trying to get elected as leader of the Tories in 2020 you can refer to your strong support for EU exit but, alas, the country made its decision and a further referendum is clearly out of the question. You are elected leader of the Tory party and you don’t have to worry too much about the large Euro skeptic wing because they know you share their pain. Scenario 2: as a result of the referendum, the county does leave the EU. On a personal level this has no material consequences for you or your family/friends and their families as you are ,through your wealth, insulated from such things. Your own ambitions are far more salient. You refer to your support for EU exit when bidding for The Tory party leadership and win. Your co-conspirator either knows of your true views or he does not – he might even share them being, much like your self, the cosmopolitan sort.
Do such thoughts make the outcome even worse? Surely I’m missing something here. I put this recurring thought down to lack of sleep. . . . . a trouble shared . . . .
I think BoGo really did not expect to win and are scared witless by the fact that they have
Nick Clegg’s article “Cameron and Osborne are to blame for this sorry pass” in the FT yesterday was quite revealing. Unfortunately it is behind a pay wall. I think spitting blood could well describe it. A few extracts
“When we were in coalition with the Conservatives I was repeatedly asked by them to have a referendum on their terms. I refused point blank because elevating internal party rows to a national plebiscite was not good enough…”
“The vote aimed at settling a Tory party feud was one the prime minister breezily told me he could win.”
This link may work to see the article.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6044d4e8-3a03-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.html#axzz4CfbdxRaQ