As I have already noted this morning, Donald Trump appears to have conceded that the USA has suffered a major military defeat in its war, in collaboration with Israel, against Iran, which has dominated the world for more than five weeks.

After spending what US sources estimate to be more than $30 billion on the war, with more costs still to come, the 10-point plan that he has agreed appears to cede regional power in the Gulf to Iran, committing the USA to pay for reparations and granting control of the Strait of Hormuz to the government in Tehran.

As I have stressed in another post this morning, it would be naive at this moment to think that this is the last word on this war. The supposed ceasefire plan requires that Israel cease its hostilities, including in Lebanon, and it has already indicated that it has no intention of doing so. In that case, this ceasefire might be decidedly temporary and might, in retrospect, look like an exercise designed to provide Donald Trump with the opportunity to back down from his threats. In that case, the relief currently being witnessed on the world's financial markets, where share prices are up, and oil prices are markedly down (although by no means at their pre-war level), may be decidedly premature. In my opinion, the likelihood that this war is really over does not seem very high this morning.

Nonetheless, some conclusions can be drawn, and there are observations that must be made.

Firstly, as has been widely recognised, Trump threatened genocide yesterday. The fact that he did not deliver it makes no difference. The threat was made by a US president and appears to have been real. It seems likely that Iran took it seriously. That such a thing could happen, and that the words that he used, suggesting that he would annihilate a civilisation, means that Trump should now be treated as the pariah that he is by all other states around the world. He threatened one of the most serious crimes known to humanity with the apparent intention of undertaking it. That was, in the terms of politics and international relations, unforgivable.

No nation should ever go where Trump took the USA yesterday. In a reasonable world, the USA would now be suspended from the United Nations, be subject to sanctions, and Trump would be ostracised by all nations around the world. Instead, King Charles is still scheduled to make a state visit to the USA later this month, raising new concerns and causing justified anxiety for all those in this country who believe in the importance of human rights, equality, respect, and mutual cooperation as the basis for human life. Even if some politicians, like Keir Starmer, continue to conform to Trump, no one should be under any illusion. Trump's status has been irreparably, and rightly, damaged both by what he said before this supposed ceasefire and, in geopolitical terms, by the terms of his surrender.

Secondly, and again, whatever happens, the consequence of this ceasefire is profound. There is no hint of US victory contained within it. It would appear, so far, that it has surrendered on all fronts whilst establishing Iran as the de facto regional power in the Gulf. A military defeat on this scale will have profound consequences for the US role in the world. It might have been damaged by the war in Vietnam, but this defeat feels more significant. It demonstrates the limitations of the US military threat. It makes clear that superior firepower cannot guarantee military victory. It makes clear that modern warfare is fundamentally different from that in the past because simple technologies are now undermining sophisticated weaponry, whilst economic factors count more than ever. World power will change as a result. That is an inevitable consequence of what has happened.

Thirdly, as it is apparent that Israel is continuing its assault in Lebanon this morning, ignoring the apparent conditions of the ceasefire, it is clear that Israel is both a rogue state and beyond the control of the USA, meaning that the need for action to constrain its aggression is more important than ever. Sanctions, bans on weapon exports, the ending of diplomatic relations, expulsion from the United Nations, and more are the least we should now expect. The biggest threat to world peace can now be fairly described as Israel, as this current war has demonstrated.

Fourthly, NATO is finished. It will take decades for the USA to restore its international credibility following Trump's actions, none of which can be ignored because they were taken as the US president. In the meantime, Europe and Canada need to reappraise their defence needs anew, to think about the world as it now is, and to work together to put in place measures that deliver freedom from fear for the people who live within them.

Fifthly, the need to remove fossil fuels from our economies is ever more pressing. This war proves that. Climate change demands that this take place. Investment in renewable energy and all associated technologies is now vital to our future, whilst working out how we can live in a world with substantially lower oil consumption is the greatest economic imperative of the present.

Sixthly, we cannot be sure that we have avoided the threat of famine that could arise as a consequence of disruption to fertiliser supplies. That may not happen, but we do not know, and should not rely upon it. Appreciation of the vulnerability of so many populations around the world, dependent as they are on immensely fragile economic environments, including desalination plants, should be a wake-up call to the need to build economic resilience for the people of this planet so that they might have a chance of survival. At the risk of being repetitious, I suggest that my theme of freedom from fear is particularly relevant here.

Seventh, in all this, we have to realise that toxic, fascist politics driven by anti-Muslim sentiment represents a political agenda that is still threatening world peace. It would appear that this sentiment is what drove Trump and his regime to their extreme positions. The same sentiment is driving the Tory, Reform, and Restore parties in the UK to similarly extreme positions, based on the politics of hate. Unless we wake up and understand the toxicity of these positions and the hate that they deliberately inspire, we will not deal with the political threats that we now face.

There will be more ramifications of this war. The likelihood that our economy will avoid depression as a consequence of what has happened, particularly given the fact that Rachel Reeves appears determined to still work within wholly inappropriate, made-up fiscal constraints, is very low. At a time when we need political certainty and courage, the chance that Labour will supply it is incredibly low. The ramifications of that are themselves severe and can only exacerbate the threat we face from the far right, whom Labour appears determined to enable at the cost of undermining its own political future.

The one thing we can say for certain is that the consequences of this war are a long way from over as yet, even if the war itself does end, which is itself unknown.

I said in a video yesterday that everything will change as a result of this war. I continue to think that I was right. We may not have had World War III, but the ramifications of this war will make it feel as though we have, so significant in scale will they be. If, by chance, we have peace this morning, the challenge that it represents is enormous. Whether we can address the questions it poses is unknown. If ever there was a day when we are required to live in hope, this is it.

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