Donald Trump agreed to this plan because he had no choice. He had to back down from the genocide he threatened. But what if this “peace” is nothing more than a pause in a conflict that has not been resolved?

In this video, I examine the contradictions at the heart of this deal. The United States appears to have secured none of its strategic objectives. Iran emerges stronger, not weaker. Israel's role is uncertain, and its compliance is far from guaranteed.

This raises a fundamental question: is this peace, or is it a retreat dressed up as diplomacy?

I also explore the wider implications — from the growing importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the shifting balance of power in the Gulf, and the weakening of US credibility on the global stage.

Markets may be pricing in certainty. But the reality is that uncertainty has increased, and the risk of renewed conflict remains very real.

This may not be the end of the war. It may be the beginning of something far more significant.

This is the audio version:

This is the transcript:

A Middle East peace plan is supposedly on the table today, but I'm questioning whether that is really true.

This is a peace plan that no one has really seen. There is some doubt as to what the clauses are. Is nuclear power in it, or not? We don't know. Sources are contradictory, but markets are reacting anyway. They are celebrating as if we have peace in our time. That promise today is as good as it was when Neville Chamberlain made it in 1938. Markets are assuming stability, but this war may well not be over. The celebrations could be premature.

My sense around this is that we are going to see a recommencement of hostilities very soon. Why is that? It is because the USA has no victory in this peace plan.

We know why Donald Trump agreed to this peace plan. He had put himself into an impossible situation. He had said that he would annihilate civilisation in Iran. He had threatened genocide, in other words. He needed to back down from that. He needed a peace plan to give him the chance to do so. He needed a cessation of hostilities temporarily to give him the chance to regroup.

That is what this peace plan is about, but is it real? Is a peace plan that delivers the USA none of its strategic goals for undertaking this war in any sense viable? An engagement that ends without success is not something that the USA are used to. They may not take to this idea of defeat in a way that Donald Trump would like them to. I know he'll declare it a victory, but it isn't. There will be reactions. This is the danger.

The language of peace is being used, but the substance is that what has happened looks like a retreat, and in fact, it is a retreat. One of the clauses in this so-called peace plan is that the USA will retreat from all its bases in the Gulf. This is extraordinary. The USA has backed away under pressure, and it is leaving itself with no leverage. This is defeat reframed as diplomacy.

In addition, let's be clear, this peace plan depends on Israel. Israel must cooperate according to the plan. It must cease its hostilities in Lebanon, and there's no sign that it will. Its internal politics still matter, and its aggression will continue. The plan could collapse very quickly as a consequence. That is why I think peace is going to be very hard to find at this moment.

Trump needed the way out, and we accept he's got something to let him do that. But let's not celebrate too quickly, and let's look at the consequences for the Middle East. This plan makes Iran the biggest regional influencer in the whole of the Gulf. It's no longer contained. It's recognised as the holder of power. The balance has shifted decisively in its favour if this plan is put in place. Gulf politics will be transformed as a result.

Holds the choke points. The Strait of Hormuz has become central, and we know that is the case because of what has happened over the last five weeks. Oil, gas, fertiliser, helium, and other raw material supplies all flow through it. Global dependence has been revealed. We rely on Iran, and Iran has used that power to its great advantage. All the old assumptions of geopolitics are being broken as a result.

US dominance is now being questioned.

Regional power is being rebalanced, and many alliances are under strain.

That between the UK and the USA is, for example, whilst the relationship between NATO and the USA is probably over. How can NATO look at the USA as its ally when it is the state that is causing the greatest threat to its well-being?

The world order is shifting, and US credibility has now been damaged, probably beyond repair.

Israel is now acting independently, and action has to be taken to constrain it. It is now the biggest rogue state in the world. It is the epicentre of global violence in a very real sense. This war would not have happened without it. International norms are being destroyed by it, and trust is being reduced everywhere as a consequence of the actions of Israel. It must now be under the greatest scrutiny, and relationships with it should be under review.

Can we maintain diplomatic relationships with a country that is illegally bombing another?

Can we maintain some form of support for Israel inside the United Nations anymore? Should it be banned?

These are questions that now have to be on the table.

And meanwhile, markets need to get their heads around reality. They're pricing in peace, but there is no peace yet; there is no guarantee it will come. In fact, in my opinion, the only thing that we now know is that we have greater uncertainty in the world now than we had before. The number of variables now on the table is enormous, and where the world will go is uncertain, except for the fact that I think that conflict risk remains.

The optimism that we're currently seeing in markets looks intensely fragile to me. If peace actually happens, the consequences would be enormous, but the fact is, the consequences will be enormous despite the peace. This is my point. US defeat reshapes power, and Iran has gained lasting influence. This is the new global system.

Can Western politics adjust to this? That is the question.

Can power be shared with this new global power?

Can Israel be contained?

Will resistance happen? That's the concern that I have. We are in a situation where war may not be finished. Ceasefire could fail. Incentives to resume conflicts exist, and miscalculations are still possible.

Markets are ignoring all of this, and there are the challenges of the peace to accept. The new world order has to be negotiated, and there could be many a slip on the way to achieving that. This is a moment where peace looks like a very perilous outcome.

That's my view. What's yours? There's a poll down below. Please let us know your opinion. Please leave a comment. Please do also like this video, if that's what you do. Share it. Subscribe to our channel, and if you'd like to, please make a donation that helps us to make more videos like this.

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