In another surreal overnight twist to the war in the Middle East, Trump has declared that he thinks it might be over in 2 to 3 weeks, whether or not the USA gets a deal.
The evidence that Trump is getting bored with the conflict that he started and is looking for a way out is very strong. As was always expected, he will chicken out in the end. That said, the possibility that everything will then return to normal is remote in the extreme.
In another twist in the last 24 hours, Trump berated the UK at the same time as he announced his delight at the planned trip of King Charles to the USA later this month. The dichotomy will not have gone unnoticed in the world, particularly in the Middle East.
Whilst France is pouring scorn on what Trump is doing, and the far-right government in Italy is refusing the US the right to refuel aircraft destined for the Middle East at American airbases in the country, not only is the UK providing a base for B-52 bombers, it is also providing its implicit diplomatic support for the regime in the USA by arranging a state visit in the midst of an illegal war.
The messaging is clear. As ever with a Labour government, an attempt is being made to triangulate the situation so that all sides can be kept happy, with the consequence that none is. The pretence that the special relationship with the USA is continuing is maintained, even though that relationship should be severed. The claim that this war has nothing to do with the UK is simultaneously shot to pieces by the permission granted for UK airbases to be used to support the illegal assaults on Iran. And no one in the UK is left in any doubt about the fact that the UK government is creeping, as ever, to the occupant of the White House, however obnoxious they might be.
This has consequences. As Donald Trump said yesterday, Europe "can go and get its own oil" from the Gulf states in the future. He did, of course, ignore the fact that we, and everyone else, were doing just that until he intervened. The problem that we now have is entirely of his creation, and the creation of Benjamin Netanyahu, but we would be unwise to ignore the fact that whilst those states who have firmly stood up against the USA might be permitted by Iran to use the Strait of Hormuz again, if there is oil and gas to collect after the USA and Israel have finished their campaign, countries like the UK might still be blocked from access because of their implicit, tacit, or practical support for the USA during its campaign against Iran.
My suggestion is that Iran might seek to use the weapon of sanctions in a fashion akin to that previously used against it, meaning that not only will it block the passage of ships serving the UK from passing through the Strait of Hormuz when the immediate conflict is over, but might also sanction otherwise apparently friendly states that acted as an intermediary in that case, seeking to export oil from the Gulf for onward delivery to the UK via an intermediate port. The Strait of Hormuz is, in other words, going to remain a weapon for a long time to come, and to presume that the UK will be able to access oil and gas from anywhere in the Gulf when it has been an accomplice in acts of destruction in the Middle East is naive in the extreme. There is no reason why Iran should forgive and forget, and I do not think it will do so.
What is the consequence of all this? It is that Starmer is likely to have pulled off the UK's biggest foreign policy failure since the Suez Crisis in the 1950s. He will have simultaneously alienated the USA, Iran, and the British public. As an exercise in triangulation, that is some achievement, and we will all bear the cost of it.
Meanwhile, as I noted in yesterday's video, there is no indication that the UK is preparing any sensible plans for the consequences of this war, even if it were to finish within 2 to 3 weeks, as Donald Trump is now suggesting, and those plans will be needed. To believe that all will return to normal after disruption on this scale would be an act of supreme folly. The economic consequences of this war are going to last for some time, not least because there is no indication that Israel will give up just because Donald Trump has, and if the USA continues to fund its activities, hostilities will outlast any supposed end to US involvement.
As the saying goes, the fat lady is a long way from singing as yet.
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It’s become apparent in the last 5 years that there are some names and accusations that you can make which simply don’t pass the test of being meaningfully useful.
Labelling someone a fascist inspired the song “We’re all far right now”
Calling out someone for racism when they want to stop the small boat migrants doesn’t wash.
And now we have Ed Davey, Jeremy Corbyn and many others calling out Trump for doing things illegal under international law. It’s illegal they say as if that will make the perpetrator stop and hand themselves in. They think international law comes with the same enforcement as national law when it’s just a suite of agreements, resolutions and treaties.
What these politicians should do is appeal to the Prime Directive: as the not yet born great captain said “it is a philosophy… and a very correct one. History has proven again and again that whenever mankind interferes with a less developed civilisation, no matter how well-intentioned that interference may be, the results are invariably disastrous.” If they could make a case based on this, which they can’t as they’ve no knowledge of history alas, they might cut through.
Naming an evil is a necessary part of ridding ourselves of it.
Not enough, but necessary
I suspect that the fat lady is probably just settling down with a cuppa and a good book and her outfit for her singing performance is either still in the wardrobe or maybe yet to be collected from the dry cleaners 🙂
Craig
If either Starmer or KC3 want an easy way out of the State visit nonsense, then they can roll out the “diplomatic cold” – the King does have cancer after all.
If we instead sent the brother, formerly known as Prince, he could fit in that interview with the FBI at the same time and save on jet fuel. He and the convicted felon would have plenty to reminisce about.
News from the White House is beginning to look more like Lewis Carroll’s Mad Tea Party every day, with Trump as a cross between the March Hare, the Hatter and the tyrannical Queen of hearts. Time for the 25th.
That there are not 80 Labour MPs prepared to serve the national interest and force Starmer’s hand, is something I will find hard to forgive. Meanwhile, Starmer is up to his autocratic Stalinist tricks again, suspending the whip from Karl Turner MP, because he defended jury trials. RIP our attempt at a sovereign UK democracy.
One of the worst outputs of neoliberalism is the Disneyfication of everything, including thought itself.
FtF is a place to feed the mind with truth.
The US stock market has had a rally of 4% from the lows, West Texas Intermediate Oil prices for May delivery are down 10%. One might be forgiven for thinking it was “Peace in our Time”.
In the real world, Singapore spot diesel (my preferred indicator) just traded at all-time highs today – ie. NO 10% drop. The ships are not sailing. Trump is still floundering……. and people are still being killed.
Agreed
An absolutely spot on point about the inappropriate use of Anthony Giddens ‘The Third Way’ philosophy. I mean honestly – trying to use a philosophy that pretends to be about consensus when it is obviously enabling only one point of view, a philosophy that claims to get rid of the conflicts of interest – in the middle of military aggression – I mean, what a sick joke.
And we talk about how communism created fanatics. It appals me just how well-drilled these Labour politicians are with this Gidddens ‘beyond politics’ bullshit – Third Way apparatchiks whose loyalty would not be out of step with Stalin’s party goons.
Dire……………………