New opinion poll data published by The Independent newspaper late last week is interesting:
However, it is looked at, there is only good news in this poll for one party.
The Greens can be delighted with their performance over the last year.
Labour and the Conservatives are in terminal decline. This was the lowest poll rating for Labour that this survey has ever found in its history.
The LibDems are no longer picking up the protest vote.
Reform is, very obviously, past its peak, although it still enjoys worryingly large support.
The poll did not pick up the nuance of what is happening in Scotland and Wales, where pro-independence parties are comfortably in the lead.
I spend a lot of time worrying about the rise of the far right, but this poll shows three things.
Firstly, the far right might have a core level of support in the UK, but it can be contained.
Secondly, the belief that I have had for some time that the single transferable party system of power in the UK is broken is justified. Neoliberal parties now have no answers to the problems that the UK faces, and the people of the country have realised that.
Thirdly, with opinion in this widely dispersed, arguments against proportional representation now make no sense at all and are antidemocratic.
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It would be nice if the penny was beginning to drop for sure.
It may be just that they dont get reported but the Lib Dems seem to have taken a vow of silence
Winning over the voters is going well for the Greens. Well done Zack. Roll on May local elections.
Changing the party and the policies to “get ready for government” is a huge challenge – and the recent conference didn’t encourage me (as an outsider), particularly on energy and public ownership.
I agree: the Greens have a loin way to go on policy issues
Key issues revealed in polls are where the lines cross over. This is evident in this plot. The Greens have overtaken the Lib Dems.
Previously the Lib Dems have been the third party. They inherited that mantle from Liberals and then the SDP. They have been capitalising on it for the past 40 years or more. They have promised different, conflicting, policies to different people, they have endorsed deeply unpopular policies, such as student loans, and have shown a monumental lack of economic understanding by repeated promising “a penny on income tax” to pay for various policies. They are basically a confused neoliberal party with no strategy. But, the Libdems have had the virtue of not being Labour or Conservative, hence their relatively good showing in the last election.
Now Libdems are consistently polling less than the Greens. In a first past the post system that makes the Greens the logical choice for anyone who doesn’t want Labour, Conservative (or Reform). So perhaps we have reached a tipping point where the Greens, the only non neoliberal party, may finally get a more reasonable representation in parliament at the next election. Time will tell.
It does seem as though the two main parties are facing a long-term decline, with more voters drifting away from traditional loyalties. Ideally, that creates space for new political movements that are genuinely representative rather than simply repackaging the same ideas or being populist opportunists.
That said, it’s worth being cautious about reading too much into mid-term polling. Opinion polls between elections often capture a degree of protest sentiment that doesn’t always carry through to a general election. If one were called tomorrow, the outcome might look quite different.
The results of the May local elections will be particularly telling. There are signs that some voters are starting to question how things are working, but it’s less clear how widespread that understanding really is. Continued support for Reform suggests it’s still relatively easy to mobilise a sizeable minority of voters, even where the policies may not necessarily align with their longer-term interests. It was said in a recent Private Eye Podcast that Reform appears to have a “high floor but low ceiling” — a solid base of support, but limited broader appeal. That may well prove accurate over time.
Ultimately, though, any meaningful shift in political support is likely to depend on a wider public understanding of how the systems shaping people’s lives actually function. While there’s clearly valuable work being done by yourself and others to raise awareness, there’s still a significant gap to close.