As the Guardian has reported:
Donald Trump's call for allies to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz to protect commercial shipping vessels and unblock global oil supplies has met a muted response.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump called on the UK, China, France, Japan, South Korea and other countries to send ships to the waterway, the world's busiest shipping route, which is being violently blockaded by Iran.
It has been noted that Keir Starmer will decline that invitation to help today, joining the ranks of other nations that are not queueing up to assist.
There are a number of inferences.
Firstly, the appeal for help sent out the signal that the USA and Israel have no idea how to deal with this economic war that they have started, and suggests that they fear that they are losing it.
Secondly, Trump has revealed his own inconsistency. It was only a week or so ago that he was saying he did not need UK naval support because he had already won the war. Now he is admitting that he has not done that and that he needs assistance after all. This is not the way to win friends
Thirdly, a new alliance of indifference to the USA and Israel is emerging. As the illegality of this wall, together with its total strategic illogicality, becomes increasingly apparent, other states, including those mentioned by the Guardian, will find themselves increasingly aligned against the USA, taking the line: "You started this; now you work out how to end it."
Fourthly, since none of those states considers Iran to be a threat to their well-being, and rationally cannot see why, at this time, it was a threat to either the USA or Israel, they have no great desire to take sides. They might all appreciate that Iran winning might result in a major strategic realignment in the Gulf, as would be inevitable, but they might think that a price worth paying to break the power of Israel, which is a greater threat to the stability of the region. Objectively, that is clearly the case. With its attacks on Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Iran, Israel's "greater Zionist" narrative might be increasingly perceived to be the real threat that needs to be contained in the Middle East.
What does all this mean?
Potentially, it means this war is much more significant than we might have expected at first. Over recent years, we have become used to occasional missile attacks on Iran. Last year's attack, which was claimed to have wiped out Iran's nuclear capability, thereby removing any justification for the latest attack, was typical of these. The event was over and done, with little wider consequence arising quite quickly. This attack has been altogether different, developing into full scale war as a result of the choices made by the USA and Israel, all of which look to have been strategically naive.
It is too early to be certain of the outcomes of this war, although, as I previously said, its economic consequences will be severe and have so far been seriously underpriced in financial markets, whilst the human cost will persist for decades. What I increasingly feel, however, is that the political consequences might last just as long. Since Israel's Six-Day War in 1967, it has become accustomed to military success over its neighbours. Israel's extraordinary regional power has been based on that. The idea that Israel might suffer a military reversal has been hard to imagine. It might be too early to say that it will on this occasion, but the possibility now exists. In itself, that is a radical idea, changing the regional balance of power as a result. In Israeli terms, that is the last outcome that it could have wished for, but might be what it gets.
My conclusion is that we are facing potentially major strategic realignments as a result of this war. Even if the USA and Israel win, the distance between them and other major nations in international affairs will have increased. That in itself will be a major outcome. It also has serious consequences for NATO, whose relevance when the USA is acting in ways seriously out of alignment with its supposed allies is increasingly in question. At the same time, a major rethinking of the Gulf's politics might be required, and only China is ahead in that game.
This is no minor war. Its ramifications will reverberate for a very long time
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You’re right about the game-changing nature of this war. But I think Starmer is being duplicitous again. The UK will join in the task of keeping the Straits open, initially using autonomous equipment already in the area (Bahrain) under Operation Kipion. To have a Prime Minister behaving like this during a pivotal global crisis isn’t especially helpful.
… and Brian (i.e. the King) really ought not go to see Trump, as is planned.
For once Kier Starmer has got it right. Why should our navy be put at risk for a war we didn’t start? Surely the US has ships it can deploy?
It is scary that Trump has started something with no plan and unleashed chaos in an already volatile area. I discovered I’m not alone in being so horrified by it all I can’t bear to watch.
It is difficult to know where it will end, but the consequences affect us all. With regard to NATO, Zack’s view is starting to make a lot of sense and I hope history will be kind to him. The US has not been a reliable partner for a long time, but this forced realignment leaves a very unstable world. Who will stand up to Netanyahu?
Who will stand up to Netanyahu? Exactly the same as now, no-one, as has been the case with all of Israel’s illegal aggression since the 1940’s.
At one time Arab armies did, to a limited extent and for their own purposes. Then the Palestinians were left to defend themselves as best they could, or under the factional control of various states. When Palestinians, who felt they were being erased from their land and from history, and they had very little time left to stand up for themselves, launched the al Aqsa flood operation, they did indeed attack civilians and commit some appalling atrocities, though there were also many false stories. But they were universally condemned as terrorists by every Western state, despite the far greater colonial and supremacist violence and terror to which they have been subjected for decades. And despite those same western countries trading arms and intelligence with the Israelis, providing them with diplomatic cover and economic subsidies and all the rest of it.
Britain, in particular, seems never willing to forego their Christian Zionist colonial project in the Middle East. And the US is on a might is right, end of empire, rampage.
we dont have the ships to provide anyway, so we cant help
Nonsense. Now that Trump is pulling THAAD missiles out of South Korea to deploy them to Iran, South Korea’s leaders will fall over themselves to accept his invitation to risk the lives of their servicepeople in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump and his incompetent Cabinet do not seem to grasp that by opening Pandora’s box in the Gulf they have sown the seeds of their departure from the Gulf and the weakening of their influence.
US “allies” no longer trust Trump. It seems that the reason the US cannot open the Straits is because firstly their ships are defending the aircraft carriers in the region. Secondly the sheer physicality of the Iranian side of the Straits means any naval vessels attempting the opening are on a suicide mission.
The economic outcomes will be massive and long term. I doubt it will happen but perhaps the developed world will be forced to consider can it continue with infinite growth?
Trump, as expected, has miscalculated badly.
It is interesting that one of the countries mentioned — to send ships — is China.
Like many things with Trump, it doesn’t make sense at all.
Iran has sent at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the waterway since the war began, all of which were headed to China, according to vessel-tracking data.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/iran-ships-oil-china-strait-hormuz-closure-.html
Trump must know this, China doesn’t need to be there, but it would be intriguing if they were to send warships, as I doubt the US really wants them there. Trump hates China. The idea of China “policing” the Strait of Hormuz, would be a challenge to US policy in the region.
And China could say — you invited us!
But, Trump’s call probably also has something to do with the fear he has of US ships being hit by missiles and drones, and the loss of life. That would not go down well with the MAGA crowd in the US, or public opinion in general. So far, US losses have been small, because the war games they play are from the air or long distance. They have no plan to commit forces on the ground, and Iran knows this. They also know that the opposition in Iran doesn’t have the support for an uprising — it would probably need the military to change sides — and there is no sign of that.
Trump clearly had no plan on how it would end. His lies have been exposed, and he needs to find a way out before the markets implode.
Reminds me of that old saying. You made your bed; now lie in it. Lies being something that Trump knows well.
“Trump called on the UK, China, France, Japan, South Korea and other countries to send ships to the waterway”…….thus transfering a problem of his & Israel’s making to others & one supposes, increasing the possibility of more ship wreckage on the seabed of the Hormuz Strait.
Perhaps we need a “League of Rogue States”, heading the premier divison: Israel, USA, Russia, North Korea, with the monarchies of the Arabian peninsular in League 2 – a deeply unpleasant group.
“As the illegality of this war, together with its total strategic illogicality, ”
Not for Isreal, Iran want to wipe it from the face of the earth and its terrorist proxies have been attacking them from decades… a bit of balanced perspective would be nice once in a while even for such far left blog.
But it’s OK for Israel to wipe Gaza and the Palestinians from the face of the earth?
I heard a few minutes of LBC radio this afternoon. A British caller from Israel said Iran wants to wipe us off the map and kill very Jew they can find. “They have said this”. The host didn’t contradict.
But there are thousands of Jews in Iran and they have a seat in the Parliament. Iran have said -or a leader said-the regime ( a Zionist colonial state) should be wiped off the map. There are people in various countries who call for a one state solution as the scale of the settlements makes a two state increasingly problematical. A post Zionist state would not be a “Jewish state’ as it has been calling itself in recent years.
I am not denying the nature of the Iranian state but we do need a more balanced view.
If Isreal -and its American sponsor- had genuinely agreed to a real two state solution several decades ago, the situation would be very different. There would be less incentive for extreme action; the Arab states would not want non-state armed groups; the West could act as guarantor. Most informed opinion says if the Arab states agreed, Iran would comply.
Rashi Khaldi has written ‘Dishonest Broker’ about the role the USA has played in the ‘peace process’. It reinforces my other reading from sources , from which I conclude, the right wing Israeli political parties have dictated their terms to the US and they will not accept anything more than a county council status for Palestinians.
Peace is accepting the Israeli terms.
As Darth Vader might have said, “The Hasbara is strong with this one” 😉
I think Trump has lost. He can’t take the pain of Hormuz being closed, plus the midterm election is fast approaching. He might want to stop, but Iran won’t. So effectively the US will have to surrender. I think that means lifting sanctions and a withdrawal of US bases from the Gulf. He will pretend it is a victory, but the reality will be the end of US control of the Gulf / Arabian peninsula.
There is no way that US/Israel can win this war. They are expending missiles an drones faster than can be produced . Iran has been building up underground stockpiles of these for years. No war has been won by air power and bombing alone before. The West has no stomach for a protracted land war in Iran and Israel has been badly wounded when ground fighting in southern Leban0n before. The Gulf states have shown how vulnerable they are to Iranian missiles and their anti missile systems will deteriorate. No navy or merchant shipping will risk going through the straits of Hormuz.
Out of interest, what do you think the effect of all this will be on the petrodollar? if Trump doesn’t invade, if he does invade and then fails to win or even if it takes his army too long to take over Iran, gulf nations will lose faith in US ability to protect them, and would presumably walk away from the petrodollar. What kind of effect might this have on the economies of America and Europe?
It’s being reported that Iran has offered to allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on condition that they pay for the oil in Chinese Yuan.
An interesting article implying that Iran may let tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on the condition that the oil on them is traded in Chinese yuan rather than the dollar. The US could potentially be in some serious trouble for their stupidity and folly and “..major strategic realignments..” could be an understatement!
https://europeanbusinessmagazine.com/business/iran-has-just-fired-the-most-dangerous-shot-of-this-war-and-it-wasnt-a-missile/
Hi Richard. Please cancel my last post as what I said is noted here
All the Arab countries and NATO countries think the war was unnecessary and that bombing should stop. Now Trump has asked for help – they could say ‘fine’ and start talking to Iran – as apparently India has already done.
They could try to negotiate a ceasefire and reinstate the deal Oman said was already in place when the bombing started.
Trump could go for it despite the religious fanatics advising him – if he sees oil prices and other prices making him even more unpopular than he now is. He would have to slap down Israel.
Its a long shot – but worth a try. Otherwise as Richard says – it is a catastrophe.
Simply put, Iran doesn’t desire a ceasefire. It was in talks with US and Israel three weeks ago and look what happened. Iran seeks
a) reparations for the damage so far to their country, and
b) US to remove themselves from the region, militarily and financially.
Only then does Hormuz return to any kind of normality.
I have just been reading posts by Shanaka Anslem Perera on Substack about the effects of the closure of Strait of Hormuz on food, or more specifically on the supply of fertiliser which is needed for this year’s planting of out food crops. We are virtually out of time according to the posts.
There is a short piece at https://substack.com/@shanakaanslemperera/note/c-228527067
And a long far more detailed dissertation at https://substack.com/home/post/p-191106427 They speak for themselves. It seems to me the world is in for a very rough ride.
All eyes have been on energy, oil and gas, but food production is just as important and seems even more urgent.
In no way can the actions of US be called leadership, and by executing these actions, I believe the the countries in NATO should consider that organisation now to be moribund/defunct/dead. The only question I have is, “Who in authority will now perform the last rites?” Should it be the nation within NATO that has considered itself to have the closest relationship to the US?
With the news Starmer is sending minesweepers to the Straits of Hormuz, as well as Fairford being used for heavy bomber logistics and supply, I think the UK is in a lot deeper than we might acknowledge. Consequences for the UK may be increased security risks, and an excuse to further increase political suppression. We already have the Zionist lobby and its agents (e.g. Lawyers for Israel, Campaign Against Antisemitism, Union of Jewish Students) fomenting division and security issues where none largely exist; this is meat to their perverted mission, aided by the compromised Zionist attachment amongst the Labour hierarchy.
This is totally absurd: there are no minds in the Straits of Hormuz
I agree, Richard, just as there are no minds in the White House, either. Alhough some observers think there may be some mines in the Straits. 🙂
It’s probably just as effective to suggest that there may be mines as to actually sew any.
*sow *facepalm*
They do say the fastest way to proofread is to press ‘post’.
The crisis is increasingly grave, as you and everyone commenting are pointing out. I can’t help thinking, though, that a few decades ago many would have described Trump as a bit of a plonker. Time it made a comeback.
I have learned 2 things about this evil war.
It is pointless trying to make sense of what Trump SAYS. It is constantly changing meaningless drivel from a man lost in his moral cesspit and bodily decline. It is hard enough trying to make sense of what he, Congress and the Pentagon DO. It really is time for the men in white coats to relieve him of duty.
Starmer is an incompetent authoritarian liar, trying to control rebellious scared MPs, placate his foreign masters and deceive the British public, and without much clue what he is doing – a pilotless drone that has lost contact with base (MacSweeney). If the truth, or a dissenting British public threaten him, he will suppress both with the full force of the (unlawful if necessary) British State. MPs – over to you, do your job.
We need to keep speaking the truth – this war is yet another criminal venture by the USA and Israel. Our response should be to oppose it because of its illegality, and for the government to take action to use its powers and currency control, to protect UK citizens against the profound economic shock and to finally extract ourselves from our unequal evil alliance with the USA, fossil fuel interests, billionaire techbros and of course, the fascist warmongerers in Israel, by joining the S African case against Israel at the ICJ.
THAT would be patriotic and humane, making the world a slightly better place.
No Steer is reported as saying ” he is working with allies on a plan to re-open the Straits of Hormuz”.
Has he forgotten that Iran have brought the passage of vessels to a halt?
I may have got this wrong but if Iran says “no” no Steer risks committing to a suicide military mission.
Or does he think that he is being clever, waste time evaluating the obvious, and then going “it’s too difficult”?
“My conclusion is that we are facing potentially major strategic realignments as a result of this war. “
Any thoughts on the movements away from reliance that Canada/EU/Nordic countries are making to protect the Arctic – plus more diverse trade deals etc?
Are they as major as they seem to be?
Trump may well regret telling the world it depended too much on USA since it seems to be listening!
Last year Professor Mohammad Marandi from the University of Tehran, an Orientalist and English Literature scholar (partly grew up in USA, read English and Orientalism at Birmingham University UK) outlined the way a full scale attack on Iran by the US and Israel would develop. He outlined many times in several interviews exactly what is now happening now. In this interview with Brazilian Breno Altman he provides context from the Iranian perspective on the war as it is progressing. It will continue at least till the mid-term elections in the US.
Reading elsewhere, it seems that the UK Government might consider sending mine-sweeping drones to the Gulf. I assume that the Guardian report is largely correct.
The problem is that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping because those large crude carriers have had their insurance cover withdrawn if they are in that area. Until that cover is reinstated no oil or gas carriers will traverse the Strait. The military threat to shipping is far greater than just mines; the underwriters will surely need to be certain that there is no military threat in that area. The ruling powers of all combatants in the area will surely need to have agreed that hostilities are at an end. At that point, there will be a need to ensure there are no mines present in those waters. Mine-sweeping now seems a bit futile.
All the “ducks” need to be present and correct in the right order.
Frightening.
out of control narcissists, spreading their endless need for narcissistic psychodrama into a global contagion.
Brilliant assessment Richard..
…unfortunately as we write lives are being lost and communities destroyed…. And two monsters at the head of the destruction … one treating it like a video game and the other with a hidden agenda…. go on trashing and killing. Maybe if these entities lost family it might give them pause..maybe.
We just haven’t learned from the two huge world wars gone before. Tragic just looking at the thousands of neat rows of white headstones … people lost on all sides.I remember as a child the looks on adult faces after WW2…shocked ,grey and emaciated….and the country a wreck.
Trump and Bibi ‘winning’ of course, hence we’ll all be paying forever. Disenchantment spreading among US Republicans and Congressmen and now in Israel, who are more strung out than they expected to be and are starting to scrape a barrel which isn’t that deep.
Donald’s doubling down without knowing on what while mainstream media start to acknowledge Iran has nuclear weapons now. If Washington didn’t know that or what kind of game Tehran had been preparing to play in the Gulf for years if attacked like this, there are deeper problems there than dear Donald’s gyrations. We need to bear that in mind in looking after our own future, as China for one, appears to have done. Robust, even handed diplomacy and building up energy resources both old and new are both worth emulating, along with money supply in the public interest.
Let’s take diplomacy as the other stuff is self evident. Easy to see now that the country that most needed security guarantees here is Iran -as Russia did and asked for fifteen years ago. Get there in good time and you save so much trouble and then have more to dispose for a politics of care. So, yes, I’m actually saying that top UK diploma could have avoided this war and made Iran’s choices more easily compatible with others. If you act in advance it’s easier to shape things but even recently UK security guarantees to Iran would have given Washington and Tel Aviv pause. And put us in a better place , short medium and long term.
“The illegality of this wall”??
That looks like one of the voice-to-text errors that litter my messages and posts!
its interesting to see that Europeans refusing to come to Trumps aid in opening the strait are referring to international law; you started this war, you did not ask Congress or your allies; this is your mess to solve. Suddenly we don’ t see so much of macho Hegseth; the amazing thing is that no-one saw the obvious; the likely blockage of the strait. I hope no-one comes to rescue the warmongers and although it will affect me too… I hope a rise in oil prices will doom Trumps mid term elections, it would be well worth it to get him off the stage and if it reignites a respect for international law by other countries that will be another bonus. However in the meantime hundreds of thousands of civilians are displaced, the same policy of absolute destruction seems to be being played out by Israel in Lebanon. We can hope for a power change and the return to some kind of humanity?